The mutually-assured economic damage is a nice dis-incentive. But I agree that FishyJoe has rose-colored glasses on both about the strength of that disincentive and the notion that China's military is as disfunctional as Russia's.

I doubt they will take anything intact. It doesn't take much to render the machines inoperable. Remove a few key components and throw them in the ocean, it's a piece of junk. It only takes a few minutes to wipe the software. Maybe they could somehow get the stuff working in a few years, by then it will be obsolete. And that's not even counting the engineers who have spent decades learning their craft. I doubt they are going to happily work for the CCP. I suppose they could make them prisoners and do forced labor, but that still leaves them looking backwards. Those forced laborers are not going to learn new skills and innovate new technology.

It's not going to be Hong Kong. That was a negotiated transfer. It's a far cry from a military invasion.

that war with China near China's corner of the globe could be very, very difficult.
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I mean, one of the classic blunders is to never get involved in a land war in Asia. I'm guessing that it's graduating to a water war in Asian waters as well.

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

They have replaced nearly their entire military leadership. Not for performance, but loyalty. And Russia has at least some historic military tradition and recent combat experience. The Chinese have very little of that.

The take TSMC intact and avoid sanctions future might come to pass if China takes over Taiwan through other than direct military means. They are playing more than one angle at the moment.

I think China is playing the long game

Lots of western educated Chinese have returned to China to start businesses support start ups I'm shenzhen

I think the idea that Taiwan is going to some how be vandalised or that the US or for that matter anyone else is going to decide Taiwan is just no e step to far for China is for the birds

China has bought / is buying its influence with belt and road, with exporting millions of Chinese to support development on its boarders and internationally and Taiwan is not going to be the single thing that stops China from pursuing its foreign policy

Ultimately we are too dependent on China for a full on Russian style embargo and sanctions so our options are somewhat limited

If you think the Chinese military will show anything like the incompetence of the Russian military I think you will be making a grave miscalculation.

China had problems mobilising its military to respond to the sichuan earthquake

That said, I agree that we should not think they've neglected their military spend or training since then in the same way Russia appeared to

I think underestimating them politically, economically and militarily would be an error

Nope. Sounds like exactly the kind of guy Fat Leonard was looking for, but no, I never came across him.

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Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

People keep on saying this long game, but I'm not so sure. It's more about Xi maintaining power than any kind of long term strategy. The belt and road stuff is turning into a financial disaster. A lot of the stuff built is already crumbling or unfinished and loading up countries in debt.

Southeast Asian countries have soured relations because of the South China Sea actions. Whoever would have thought that Viet Nam would turn on China and become warm to the US?

They also have a population problem that is a direct result of their 'long term' thinking.

It's one thing to have long term plans. But if those long term plans are bad, it's often worse than doing nothing.

Depends on how you define "long game," but there's open reporting that Xi Jinping has directed his military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027.

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Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

Yes it can be a "long game" and still a foolish one. Still causing much trouble.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Yeah, it hasn't made it through sea trials yet. Keeping my fingers crossed for mayhem :-)