He will be the next president. They'll innoculate the public with much talk about his Mormon beliefs far in advance of the election so that most people will be tired of hearing about it and not give a shit.

I think he's got a much better shot than McCain, anyway.


What makes you think that?

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I don't think McCain is a real contender. He's jumped the shark. At best, he can hope to influence the campaign debate by his presense in the primary. But he has just about no shot at the nomination, I think.

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

He's jumped the shark

I'm curious as you why you think that. When did that happen?

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I agree. McCain hs no serious shot.

Heck if I know. Gut feeling, is all.

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

OK

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I think the biggest problem facing Romney will be his need to explain how his running for governer in MA as a socially liberal (unequivocally pro choice, pro gay rights) yet fiscally conservative Republican doesn't conflict with his current positioning as a social conservative. I understand the realities that a social conservative cannot win the MA governorship and that only someone truly unique (Giuiliani, perhaps McCain) has any chance of carrying the Republican nomination as a perceived social liberal. Unless he can come up with a good explanation (and political expediency isn't it), Romney's transformation will make him look like someone who'll say anything to get elected. In the off chance that Romney can get the nomination, it'll be interesting to see his attempts to move back to the center.

I see his mormonism as a secondary issue. If anything, it may play in the primaries, where conservative evangelical christians that are extremely skeptical of mormonism have a larger role. In this regard, I disagree with the quote in the original post. His mormonism wasn't didn't impact his election as Governor in MA. Gordon Smith was able to get elected to the Senate in a blue state. And the religious middle doesn't have much of a problem with Harry Reid.

his running for governer in MA as a socially liberal (unequivocally pro choice, pro gay rights

I think you're overstating the case a bit. Particularly with regards to gay rights- I think Romney has always been a strong opponent of gay marriage, for instance, and I don't think his position on gay rights has changed.

His abortion position has changed somewhat, but he was never "unequivocally" pro-choice, I think. In fact, I think he stated while running that he did not want to be identified as "pro-choice." He said, at the time, that while he was opposed to abortion, as governor, it would be his job to enforce the will of the people, and in Mass, we know what the will of the people is on that. But yes, his position has shifted to a much more pro-live stance.

If anything, it may play in the primaries, where conservative evangelical christians that are extremely skeptical of mormonism have a larger role.

People who think that have not yet wrapped their heads around the evangelical/political phenomenon. They are not going to care a whit about Romney's Mormonism. They might very well care about his previously more socially liberal positions, though. If they can be persuaded that he's only putting on a pro-life facade, for example, when he really is pro-choice, his goose would be cooked.

If I'm someone looking to keep Romney out of the general election, I'd start hollering all over town about how liberal he used to be. If I'm a Romney supporter, I hope the opposition screws up and try to make Mormonism the issue, instead.

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"People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don't realize how hard it is to put up with all the idiots in the world."

But yes, his position has shifted to a much more pro-live stance.


I hear as govenor he acquired an autogrpahed copy of Throwing Copper on vinyl.

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Just among Governers, I think a Romney or Owen\Richardsen would be an interesting fight.

I am from MA originally, and I can vouch for the fact the guy is an outstanding human being.

Still, if the Republicans wanted to nominate someone with a moderately liberal background, it is hard to imagine a better candidate than Guilani.

Romney can't accomplish a thing in MA. He has no prayer of even getting a veto upheld. The healthcare thing he just got passed will turn into a total disaster, but probably not in time to become obvious before 2008.

Had he been governor of nearly any other state, I would likely agree with you though.