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Sad Trombone: OPEC Members Can't Stop Pumping
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The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, has been trying various methods for raising the price of crude oil, most of them revolving around cutbacks in supply (by withholding up to 2% of the world's supply daily). Nothing's worked, so far, and the price of crude has actually fallen, not risen. Mostly, this is because many of OPEC's member-states don't appear to be making all that much effort to cut back their own production, even though all have promised to do so:

"Eight months after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced a plan for its 14 members and 10 allied countries to withhold almost 2% of the world’s oil every day to boost prices, seven of the 11 OPEC members that pledged to cut appear to be producing more oil than promised.

Crude prices have actually fallen, by 7.6% to $52.52 a barrel, since the beginning of the year—half what the cartel called a fair price just three years ago and a level that some say is here for the long term.

Previously, low production costs meant OPEC members profited even when oil prices fell. These days, members have ramped up government spending to keep populations happy and cover military expenses, and don’t have a cushion to let oil revenues slip. Their strained budgets can be covered only through increasingly high prices per barrel, and if prices are low they need to produce more.

The inability to control output poses a potentially existential threat to OPEC’s influence."


New oil exploration and extraction technologies -- and the efficiencies of scale attaching to them -- seem to be one of the major roadblocks to OPEC controlling the oil markets as they once did. This is especially so when it comes fracking, which has seen the cost of producing a barrel of end-product oil drop dramatically over the last several years.


OPEC Has a Crippling Problem: Its Members Can’t Stop Pumping - WSJ (full article's behind WSJ's paywall)


At any rate, cue the sad trombone when it comes to OPEC's troubles: ;-)




"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: Sad Trombone: OPEC Members Can't Stop Pumping [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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Saudi Arabia still makes money at around $25. Keeping it low also really cuts the legs out from under North American oil shale production.

I actually thought they would keep the price around 30 - 40 for a while to keep NA production low. But apparently domestic pressures make that unfeasible.

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.
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Re: Sad Trombone: OPEC Members Can't Stop Pumping [j p o] [ In reply to ]
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j p o wrote:
Saudi Arabia still makes money at around $25. Keeping it low also really cuts the legs out from under North American oil shale production.

I actually thought they would keep the price around 30 - 40 for a while to keep NA production low. But apparently domestic pressures make that unfeasible.

I dunno about those breakeven price-per-barrel oil figures, though, sir. According to Barron's, the Kingdom needs about $75/bbl and the OilPrice(dot)com website backs up that assertion. However, the Zero Hedge website maintains that among OPEC members Saudi Arabia, especially, intends to keep driving oil prices lower in an effort to choke off shale and other "tight oil" extraction, all in an effort to drive those producers out of business via low oil prices that make such extraction too expensive to realize a profit from.

I've also heard that Saudi Arabia's -- as well as several other OPEC members' (as well as Iran's) -- social and infrastructure spending practically mandates the need to keep oil prices high, over the long run, due to the simultaneous need to also pacify restive populations via such social and infrastructure spending. Right now, I think the Kingdom is backing on being able to tap its large fiscal reserves in a gambit to outlast tight oil extractors and drive them from the market.

What Oil Price Does Saudi Arabia Want? - Barron's


Why Is Saudi Arabia Desperate For Higher Oil Prices? | OilPrice.com


Do Saudi Arabia And Russia Really Want Higher Oil Prices? | Zero Hedge

"Politics is just show business for ugly people."
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Re: Sad Trombone: OPEC Members Can't Stop Pumping [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
j p o wrote:
Saudi Arabia still makes money at around $25. Keeping it low also really cuts the legs out from under North American oil shale production.


I actually thought they would keep the price around 30 - 40 for a while to keep NA production low. But apparently domestic pressures make that unfeasible.


I dunno about those breakeven price-per-barrel oil figures, though, sir. According to Barron's, the Kingdom needs about $75/bbl and the OilPrice(dot)com website backs up that assertion. However, the Zero Hedge website maintains that among OPEC members Saudi Arabia, especially, intends to keep driving oil prices lower in an effort to choke off shale and other "tight oil" extraction, all in an effort to drive those producers out of business via low oil prices that make such extraction too expensive to realize a profit from.

I've also heard that Saudi Arabia's -- as well as several other OPEC members' (as well as Iran's) -- social and infrastructure spending practically mandates the need to keep oil prices high, over the long run, due to the simultaneous need to also pacify restive populations via such social and infrastructure spending. Right now, I think the Kingdom is backing on being able to tap its large fiscal reserves in a gambit to outlast tight oil extractors and drive them from the market.

What Oil Price Does Saudi Arabia Want? - Barron's


Why Is Saudi Arabia Desperate For Higher Oil Prices? | OilPrice.com


Do Saudi Arabia And Russia Really Want Higher Oil Prices? | Zero Hedge


I'm working of info like this. I've seen similar, but this was a quick link that popped up.

https://www.fool.com/...-oil-production.aspx





I don't know that the number above covers all of the production costs, I have seen higher across the board. SA had massive capital reserves, no idea where they stand now. I thought they would keep the price low for several years for exactly the reason you are talking about.


The reality of cutting off the money tap might have changed that. It is a lot like several people on here were talking about their own personal capital reserves. It seems like a lot until you see how fast you can burn through it.


But if you really want to fuck with Russia make oil/NG/etc. cheaper.

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.
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