I would agree, people are horrible at evaluating risk. They would rather have a vehicle they control even though the alternative might be ten times safer. Airline disasters are like shark attacks, big headlines that cause fear. But not the thing most likely to kill you.

Don't they have a big red lever they can use to manually take over again?

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Basically the computer flies the plane these days. The pilot just uses the flight controls to tell the computer how to fly the plane. There is no manual system AFAIK, only backup systems.

I think that the 777 and other aircraft have backup mechanical linkages to fly the aircraft should the FBW system be non-operational.

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Taco cat spelled backwards is....taco cat.

Sheesh. I could speak volumes about this topic right now. I considered switching careers about 30 years ago, but the pay was absolutely stupid for new pilots. Back then, you started for a regional airline at secretary's pay, and I am not kidding. I figured it would take 15 years for me to get back to the income level I had already achieved. I had all of the resources to go all of the way to an ATP rating for virtually nothing since my Dad ran an FBO and flying school, had several corporations he flew aircraft for that I could have gotten on with, AND he was a Designated Pilot Examiner qualified to issue ATP licenses. If the calculus didn't work for me, I couldn't imagine the vocation being attractive for anyone. So, I ditched the idea and moved on. Glad I did since the industry went through lots of hard times with bankruptcies, mergers, and a severe recession.

Fast forward to 2015 and I now have a son that wants to pursue a professional pilot career. I have a neighbor up the street that is a captain for American and an officer in ALPA. He has been a fountain of information about the state of the industry along with a couple of other check pilots that I know who also work for American. My son appears to be serious having already earned his private pilot's license last year at 17 years old and is working on his IFR ticket right now. He has logged almost 100 hours and starts in the Mechanical Engineering major at UNCC in two weeks. He will have his written exam out of the way before he leaves. Anyway, here are some pertinent facts for anyone pursuing the same field.

• The looming pilot shortage is very real. In about 3-5 years, retirements at ALL of the airlines will peak and airlines like American will need to hire over 1,000 pilots per year. They have never had to hire anywhere near that number and there is no fertile field of guys retiring from the military as in the past.
• Also, as mentioned in the article, there are booming airlines in other parts of the world (like China, especially) that will have even greater demand and they do not have the infrastructure to train pilots. They have to send a lot of prospective pilots to the US.
• The FAA made a ruling about 5 years ago after a crash in NY state by a Colgan Air plane. The investigation by the NTSB revealed the pilots were simply not adequately trained. As a result, the FAA raised the minimum flight time to 1,500 hours before a pilot could be eligible for an Airline Transport Rating (ATP). An ATP is required for flying for any Part 135 operation which is the subpart all airlines that carry passengers operate under as well as freight carriers. For those that do not know, 1,500 hours is a LOT of time and typically takes a couple of years if you are flying your ass off. Plan on about 3-4 years. Most of this time will be spent bouncing around in some cheap Cessna or Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) instructing someone else how to fly until you get to 1,500 hours. You can make about $30/hour doing this, but only while you are actually in the plane instructing. This change by the FAA is the single biggest hurdle that has been placed on the airline industry that will need pilots desperately very soon.
• The ROI on the training expense is only just recently becoming somewhat reasonable. For someone that goes to a four year college and gets a degree in 'Flight' or whatever that institution calls it, you can expect in-state tuition of $20-$25K PLUS the flight costs of approximately $12-$15K per year. At the end of the 4 years, you have about 350-400 hours and an instructor's rating, but no ATP. An out-of-state student can expect to pay about $42-$45/year plus the flight costs of $12-$15K/year. That is around $55-$60K per YEAR for a total of almost a quarter million dollars and you still can't fly for a for-hire carrier. You will get a significant pass on the hours required for an ATP that is reduced to 1,000 hours for these four-year schools, but still, the ROI sucks. As it stands right now, you will be able to start as a First Officer making about $45K/year after you get your 1,000 hours (or 1,500 hours if you didn't get the four-year degree in flight).
• If you take the four year degree in Flight route, be aware that you are now pigeon-holed as a pilot with no other training. Their isn't a pilot for a major airline anywhere that wouldn't tell you that you MUST have a backup plan in the event of bankruptcies, mergers, recessions, etc. Also, one of the biggest fears ANY pilot will tell you is the fear of losing their medical for some unforeseeable reason. You simply have to have a fall back career.
• My son and I have been going to Oshkosh for Airventure for the past six years and for the past three we have been going around to all of the regional airlines' booths collecting intel on the state of the industry. All of the above information is correct as of last week when we were there for five days. In addition, my neighbor and riding buddy has shared some internal information about the demographics of the American Airlines pilots.
• Seniority is everything in the pilot pool of every airline. It dictates the equipment you fly, the routes you fly, when you can upgrade, when you can take vacation, etc. In other words, it is imperative that you get the lowest possible seniority number possible and that means getting on the payroll as a pilot ASAP. The ultimate goal is to end up as PIC on a wide body aircraft flying transcontinental routes. That's a $350,000/year income with just about any airline you fly. UPS has pilots earning $400,000-$500,000/year flying wide bodies full of nothing but packages right now.
• Lots of people on the thread have suggested automation will replace pilots. Well, I think it will be tougher to implement than many think. There are lots of decisions pilots must make in certain situations pertaining to weather conditions, equipment malfunctions, passenger problems, etc. that simply have to be made by a human. Many airports rely on pilots maintaining separation visually from other aircraft on parallel approaches to enhance the acceptance rate for the airport. Then there are the thunderstorms that must be circumnavigated. When I fly, I frequently hear airline pilots asking ATC for deviations right or left of their course line to avoid build ups or active cells that could bring down an airliner. And, aircraft components do malfunction, break, or fail in some way that requires the intervention of a person knowledgeable of the systems of that aircraft. Many times failures occur while in flight with no knowledge by the passengers. They just handle it in the appropriate way. Last, I don't know how many passengers would be comfortable boarding a flight with no pilot in the cockpit. I am a pilot and I wouldn't. If this happens, it will happen on the package carriers first and that will be the canary in the gold mine for the rest of the pilots flying passengers.

Greg

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If you are a Canuck that engages in gratuitous bashing of the US, you are probably on my Iggy List. So, save your self a bunch of typing a response unless you also feel the need to gratuitously bash me. If so, have fun.
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f___ things up" - Barack Obama, 2020

That's a ton of AWESOME information, sir. THANKS ! :-)

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

While I no longer fly professionally, and will agree that there will probably be a shortfall of 'qualified' pilots for the majors/nationals, this pilot shortage adage has repeated itself about every 10-12 years or so. It was constantly in the aviation print media when I was hired on as a fledgling first officer with American Eagle in 1996 where, despite having several thousand more flight hours than every other pilot in my new hire class, I was still at the bottom of a seniority list that forecast a 10-12 year wait for upgrade to captain. While I got to fly over 900-hours, I had no weekends or holidays off that first year, and because my pay at Eagle was nearly half my NCO pay in the US Army, I ended up working two-three jobs, thus ensuring no days off that first year!


Its actually a lot more complicated than that - see CFR §61.160 Aeronautical experience—airplane category restricted privileges (b) - as a side note, when I had to have obtained 1500 flight hours when I took my ATP checkride in 1996.


To log pilot-in-command time under part 121 (scheduled operations/airlines) requires an ATP, whereas log pilot-in-command time under operations conducted under part 135 - roughly covers on-demand flight operations such as charters, air ambulance, and air tour operations - only requires a commercial pilot certificate.


Not anytime soon. While the major airlines provide service to the big airports with category III approach and instrument landing system (ILS), most regional air carrier operations are to smaller, less sophisticated airports where a basic ILS is sometimes not even available. Interesting fact to keep in mind, the Asiana Airlines 777 that crashed at San Francisco International on a clear day with unlimited visibility, a couple years ago, the ILS was noticed as out of service as the system that transmitted the glide-slope (vertical guidance) was undergoing maintenance at the time of the accident.

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¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You mean the Asiana flight that had this crew on the flight deck?:

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

greg, you spent a lot more time on a reply than i was/am willing to do in writing. nice job.
i came through the commuter ranks in the late 90s/early 2000s and fly for a major now. been with them for 14 yrs.

it looks like you've got a ton of good intel on the reality of the industry and that's great. and it's great that your son is NOT getting a degree in anything aviation. that is one of the most worthless degrees around. good on y'all doing your homework.

two topics that are difficult for people to grasp is what the reality of compensation is and the reality of automation.

wrt pay, it used to take years, as in 15-20, to get to those levels of pay, but that time is coming down. but it may not be there for ones entire career. i'm sure your neighbor has discussed the industry and it's links to the economy and oil. like you said seniority is our God. if the horse you decide to hitch your cart to starts dying you hope that; 1.) someone finds a magic elixir to fix the horse, 2.) it hangs on till you retire. if a company starts failing, ala: braiff, eastern, twa, we cant jump ship and go anywhere laterally. we move to another airline and we go to the bottom. i think the future for the new guys is good as far as pay. i got a card in mail looking for metroliner pilots. i started in the plane at $17/hr flying through thunderstorms in the midwest and the mountains of montana. the card said there is $10 or 20k signing bonus with this company. don't remember what it was, but it was close to what i made in a yr back in the 90s.

one of my pet peeves is the, "the airplane flies itself". we have a book called a QRH, Quick Reference Handbook. this is the manual we go to when either the window heat light comes on or an engine quits and shit gets real, real fast. it is a defined outline of how to attack an issue. an if this->then that flow to follow. to address the window heat light, which i had last week, it is turn it off, wait 2-5 minutes, turn it on. if it goes out, continue. if it doesn't, turn it off and don't fly to fast below 10'000ft.

now when an engine quits or a trim wheel starts to run away, two things that are on the list are, 1.) turn off the autopilot, 2.) turn off the auto throttles. there is no emergency check list that says to turn any automation on until the human has analyzed the situation and figured out what is going on. only after human analysis has occurred do we go back and use automation. the automation is used to help the pilot manage a situation.

we've been talking about self driving cars since the 60s??? and we're still not there. we're definitely closer, but it aint there. then once we get there what will be the cost? and if something in a car goes wrong the fix is easy, you stop. in a plane that is not an option. ever. if we look at the UAV's the military use, that is about as basic, on an advanced level, that we can get. and we still use pilots to takeoff and land.

we were going into milwaukee a couple weeks ago. coming from the southwest and there were some pretty bad storms growing to the SW of the field. we had to make the decision on whether to go north or south around the system. since the winds aloft were coming form the north and due to the proximity of chicago to the south we decided to go north. it was a little longer path but we had the gas and we figured that if the weather got worse the closer we got the field we'd have more latitude staying away from chicago's airspace. so, north we went. and man did stuff change fast. the weather on the side we choose started to grow like crazy. we ended up flying 75-80 degrees off of our preferred course to go direct to the field. but, ATC was cool, there was very little traffic on that side of Billy Mitchell Fld so we were pretty much free to do what we needed. we just kept skirting along the bad stuff until we saw an opportunity to avoid the bad stuff and turn towards the airport. it worked out great. how you program a computer for that i have no idea. not saying it cant be done, i just don't know.

in my opinion, you want a human there. they have skin in the game and i think passengers would want the human element. i don't want to die. no I've flown with wants to die. we're actually a very conservative group, we know the consequences. a computer cant die. and management will get the computer that just barely meets the min requirements, they're not spending money on the best one avail.

ok, i wrote a lot more than expected. i love talking aviation.

greg, you sound like you have a great resource. if you have any questions though feel free to PM me.
cheers, j-

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ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
we're doomed

If there is really a shortage as you say, wages are not going to stay low. Seems like basic economics, if there is a shortage, wages go up, people in need of pilots add incentives (they pay for your flight school), more people get trained as pilots and the problem fixes itself.

Kind of like the opposite of what happened with lawyers after the financial collapse, there were an excess of lawyers, then there was less legal work, which made wages go down, which made people decide not to spend a lot of money to become a lawyer and enrollments have tanked.

a buddy was just seconds away from being Sully 2.0.
he was going in sacramento one night and hit 2 geese. both between the engine and fuselage. that was luck, twice.
i just happened to be the one who ferried the flight from SMF to DAL two days later.


[url=https://flic.kr/p/W4RLn3][/url]





[url=https://flic.kr/p/WJJ7qY][/url]

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ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
we're doomed

Thanks for the comments. I did get the subparts for charter and airline passenger ops mixed up. Regarding the requirements for an ATP, I am very aware of what is required, just didn't think going into that in this forum was appropriate. I use our company plane quite a bit and have talked with our pilots about the 'shortage'. They have made the same comments about the recurring predictions of looming shortages. On the other hand, this time, it appears real. All of the regionals are dramatically increasing their starting pay from the ludicrous $25K level to the equivalent of $45-$50K usually with bonuses by the majors they are associated with. Delta is offering an $80K signing bonus for pilots hired by their subsidiary, Endeavor. Envoy is offering signing bonuses with a flow to American. My pilot friend in the union showed me the retirement projections for American pilots and it will start ramping up dramatically in about three years. If the same hiring requirements will come into play at the other majors plus the increase in demand for pilots overseas, one has to wonder if there are enough flight schools to get people trained up. Nobody wants to instruct even one hour more than they have to and the schools will have to constantly replace their CFIs and CFIIs with freshly minted instructors created internally. We visited Embry-Riddle last Fall and even they are going outside for instructors.

Greg

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If you are a Canuck that engages in gratuitous bashing of the US, you are probably on my Iggy List. So, save your self a bunch of typing a response unless you also feel the need to gratuitously bash me. If so, have fun.
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f___ things up" - Barack Obama, 2020

I was hoping you would chime in. Good thoughts on the need for human intervention. Although I fly on autopilot 98% of the time when I am flying the Cirrus, I do have to tell it what to do, confirm that it is doing it, and constantly reprogram for weather deviations and ATC redirects. Approaches are not as automated as people think and ATC screws you up occasionally with crappy vectors to an approach. I am sure the happens to you as well. Last, about 10 years ago I was departing Savannah, GA after a thunderstorm rolled through and thoroughly rain soaked all of the aircraft on the ramp with gusty winds for about 20 minutes. I took off into 300' ceilings and quickly realized I had a pitot static problem. No autopilot would have been able to fly a climb out of the scud, so I just hand flew it with 7 degrees of pitch and monitored engine RPM until I broke out into the clear. I tried alternate static and got no improvement. When I landed, I had the local FBO purge the pitot static system and they drained about a quarter cup of water out. After my experience and a CFII that had the same thing happen to him in Florida (he pulled the chute), Cirrus redesigned the plumbing so that water couldn't get that far up into the system and issued an AD for it.

I know you guys have much more robust systems than us bug smashers, but sometimes I think people get lulled into a false sense of security. Shit really does happen.

Greg

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If you are a Canuck that engages in gratuitous bashing of the US, you are probably on my Iggy List. So, save your self a bunch of typing a response unless you also feel the need to gratuitously bash me. If so, have fun.
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f___ things up" - Barack Obama, 2020

Im sure it can.
Any idiot can put a plane into a nosedive :-)

The decision tree or algorithm that a plane's computerized systems would run through in the event of power loss on rotation or while taking off would all depend, I guess, on the scenarios programmed into that system by developers, I think? Although with AI becoming all the fashion, maybe the planes will be "smart" at minimum or even "brilliant" (Skynet smiles at that last ;-) and will make lightning-fast decisions on their own that human pilots couldn't hope to replicate.

I talked to a couple of jet jockeys from Lufthansa and Delta yesterday about the issues brought up in this forum as regards automated flight. They feel that, at minimum, there'll always be at least one fully trained pilot on an aircraft, even if the thing is fully automated. But that the only reason that will be so is that people will never fully accept automated flight in the commercial air transportation sector. I don't know if that's true or if it's just wishcasting on the part of two pilots flying the top routes (widebody transcontinental) that pay the best salaries, but it's something to chew on.

Below, a picture I snapped of the flight deck of an LH B747-400 flying the FRA-DTW-FRA route yesterday. The thing looks pretty automated to me, except for those cumbersome yokes ( ;-) )and the pilots tell me that the Airbus is even more so. I'll snap a pic later in the week for comparative purposes:

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

the cirrus looks like a fun plane to fly. small planes are more fun, period. and in my opinion a smaller plane makes you a better pilot. if you don't have the engine(s) to just power out of a situation then you have to aviate out of it. using flying skill and knowledge to get out of a bind. or if you don't have a redundant system, when your sys goes bad, i.e. water in your static sys, it goes back to your skills.

A superior pilot uses his superior judgment to avoid situations which require the use of his superior skill.

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ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
we're doomed

"A superior pilot uses his superior judgment to avoid situations which require the use of his superior skill."


I flew gliders competitively for over ten years and landed out in farm fields all over the country. I also taught newbies about the 'art' of flying a glider cross country in competitive events. I can't tell you how many times I used that line. ;-P


I put the word art in quotes, but gliding is a most unusual corner of aviation. It truly is a curious blend of artful intuition, stick & rudder skills, and an analytical ability. It's kind of like the Zen form of flying.


Greg

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If you are a Canuck that engages in gratuitous bashing of the US, you are probably on my Iggy List. So, save your self a bunch of typing a response unless you also feel the need to gratuitously bash me. If so, have fun.
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f___ things up" - Barack Obama, 2020

i took glider lessons years ago and made it right up to the point of ready to take my check ride, and didn't. i was a new capt at my commuter airline and my instructor was a new FO. since we were both on the bottom of the seniority list we flew together a lot and became friends. i was living in tx, he was in az. we'd finish our trips and hop on a flight to phx where he was teaching me to soar. then his sched changed and i just never took the ride.

soaring is awesome. i keep saying i'm going to go back and get that rating, but i haven't. another buddy and i are going to a local airport today though to get some info about checking out in a super cub. gliders and tailwheel a/c have been the most fun planes I've flown.

i thought there was a quote about flying being more art than science but i'm not finding it. i understand, and agree, with your use of 'art'.

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ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
we're doomed

Long time co-worker buddy spends his days at a desk 6' behind me. His brother flies drones for the AF. So, over the years, we've talked about this many times and I'm learned something about the drone pilot world. It's easy for me to imagine a world where groups of remote pilots, a group in each region for example, hands off to each other planes flying in/out of each region. Each pilot would handle, say, a half dozen passenger or cargo planes simultaneously. If there was a problem, the plane would alert him, otherwise he'd spend his day scanning instruments on multiple screens simultaneously. During the more complex evolutions, he'd simply shift his full attention to that plane.

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Books @ Amazon
"If only he had used his genius for niceness, instead of Evil." M. Smart

I'll give you a sense of just how reliable the automation systems are in brand new manned aircraft. Last week, I was in Oshkosh with my son and my Dad. Airbus spent a ton of money on a huge two story pavilion adjacent to the flight line with a huge viewing area on the top floor for their prospective customers to watch the airshow after they looked over the A400M cargo plane they were flying around to various North American locations. It was the first 'civilian' showing of the aircraft and there were Airbus execs everywhere walking around in expensive looking golf shirts emblazoned with the 'Airbus Industries' logo when we were in the plane. This is a freshly designed airframe that competes directly with the Lockheed C-130 Hercules that has been a mainstay of many countries all over the world for about 50 years. We walked through the A400 and, wow, it was impressive. The benefits of 50 years of aeronautical and technological development are apparent almost everywhere you look, not that the C-130 hasn't been upgraded a lot during that time. The entire airplane is run by computers in true Airbus fashion. However, in 2015, one of these planes crashed due to software issues! There was nothing wrong with the plane or the engines.

I asked the RAF flight crew if they were going to do a flight demonstration like everyone else that flies a plane to Oshkosh and he said they were going to do a maximum performance takeoff and a few circuits in the pattern before departing. So, not really a flight demonstration. Anyway, they repositioned the plane outside the crowd area to start the engines and they couldn't get #2 started after five attempts. They sat there on the taxiway blocking up traffic flow for 45 minutes while they tried to get the engine started and then tried to figure out where they could taxi for repairs at an overcrowded airport. The airshow start was delayed, performances were cancelled, people that wanted to depart in their aircraft before the airshow started were stuck on the blocked taxiway. Finally, they found a spot on some FBO's ramp and they slowly taxied the plane along a circuitous path all of the way to the other side of the field causing chaos to flight operations on the whole airport. I can't even begin to imagine the embarassment suffered by all of the Airbus execs in the Airbus pavilion and on the aircraft. The engines are European made with full FADEC computer operation. But, hey, automation is going to replace humans, right? Airbus is also having engine problems on the A320neo. Those are Pratts and the problems appear to be mechanical rather than electronic.

Greg

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If you are a Canuck that engages in gratuitous bashing of the US, you are probably on my Iggy List. So, save your self a bunch of typing a response unless you also feel the need to gratuitously bash me. If so, have fun.
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f___ things up" - Barack Obama, 2020

ive flown with a few guys who, at the end of their flying careers in the military, were dealing with UAV's. correct me if i'm wrong here because i've only spoken with one or two. i thought the takeoff and landing of the unmanned a/c were done by a pilot at the UAV's location and the mission was flown from half a world away. and this is in a environment that has very few other a/c in the vicinity.

let's say a UAV was going to depart kandahar, fly to northern afghanistan and return to kandahar. the takeoff was done by a soldier in afghanistan, enroute to the mission site someone in las vegas would take over. then somewhere during the return to the base it would go back to afghanistan. the lag time was to great between vegas and kandahar to land the UAV.

one of the things the general public don't see is how dynamic the environment is. a shift in the wind between 15-20'000 ft, 100 miles from the airport can have an affect on how aircraft are handled. slowing planes down, speeding them up, vectors off course for spacing, shortcuts to get you to a point sooner so vectors are not required happen in 95%+ of every flight. if nothing ever went wrong i'd say we're closer to pilotless planes than i believe we really are.

the general public think using pilotless airplanes would be safer. air travel is pretty safe now.
https://www.forbes.com/...-crash/#dd24f8428a25

what the public is missing is that CEO's are concerned about money. money and safety go hand in hand with each other in the industry. kill a lot of people, lose a lot of customers. in 2016 no one on a US based carrier was killed anywhere in the world in 2016. the airlines are making record ROIC on their money now. if they can make 10% with one crash a year is it worth it? if the money loss in litigation from a crash would be less than 2% of the additional 10%, is that risk worth it? this is what the CEO is looking at. for me, i don't give a rip about ROIC, i give a rip about landing.

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ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
we're doomed

Yes, that's my perception too. So the civilian version would, in addition to having a team of remote pilots supporting each region, would also have a team at each airport. That's pretty much how the AF does it, near as I can tell from the stories. With teams handing off planes and each pilot handling multiple planes, it all works pretty efficiently. AF drone pilots in the US handle a large fraction of drone ops worldwide. Only during key periods do local drone pilots get involved.

Again, this is all 2nd hand, but the picture that gets painted is one of practiced efficiency.

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Books @ Amazon
"If only he had used his genius for niceness, instead of Evil." M. Smart

Many years ago, I concluded John Gallespie Magee flew gliders. Magee was the author of High Flight and it perfectly described my perception of soaring. I was initially disappointed when I actually looked up his background and found out he was an American flying for the Royal Canadian Air Force in Britain in Spitfires. He had a midair collision and was killed when he tried to bail out just before his Spit impacted the ground. He was 19.

During all of the flying in various aircraft over 40 years, the only times I have felt the way Magee describes flying in High Flight were in a glider. If you get a chance to get into a 2-place high performance glider and fly with someone that really knows how to soar, you will get the feeling. Climbing thermals and gliding from one to the next or dolphin flying under a cloud street for miles over unknown terrain are experiences most people know nothing about. But, you have to get away from the gliderport and get that sense that only your knowledge of the atmosphere and flying ability can get you back. Get out of the school's training gliders as fast as possible.

Greg

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If you are a Canuck that engages in gratuitous bashing of the US, you are probably on my Iggy List. So, save your self a bunch of typing a response unless you also feel the need to gratuitously bash me. If so, have fun.
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f___ things up" - Barack Obama, 2020

i'll eventually get back into gliders. i'd love to go up in europe around the alps. vids of that soaring is beyond words. all it takes is time. ;-)

i came across this story just this evening and thought it appropriate considering this discussion.

https://finance.yahoo.com/...ctors-184825715.html

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ΜΟΛΩΝ-ΛΑΒΕ
we're doomed