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Re: May jobs, up 138K, thanks, Donald! [Duffy] [ In reply to ]
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Correct me if I'm wrong, these are new jobs? Could there just be a lag time at play here?
Supposed to be new jobs, I believe. Because they cannot sample everyone, some jobs are estimates based on a business birth/death model.

Will we see the BLS numbers revised up in a couple weeks?
Who knows.

I'm in Windywave's camp believing that this particular metric is rather pointless. It's a headline number, and there are far more telling results in the complete report.
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Re: May jobs, up 138K, thanks, Donald! [gotsand] [ In reply to ]
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Windywave is in the "all the numbers are completely made up" camp. You seem to be interested in the other numbers in report, which is totally correct, and that is where the true mediocrity lies. Folks out of the labor force rose to nearly 95M. The drop to 4.3% was due primarily to a drop in the labor participation rate to 62.7%. Part time jobs were up. The brightest spot was wage growth, which rose 2.5% year over year. Given a big boom in the market, and rising house prices, this is decidedly "meh". It strengthens the argument that the US economy is basically approaching full employment, and this is nearly as good as it gets. We did it, America is now Great Again!
Last edited by: oldandslow: Jun 2, 17 9:04
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Re: May jobs, up 138K, thanks, Donald! [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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And just like with Obama, the President doesn't hold much sway over these numbers, certainly not four months into his or her term.

What was the refrain when Obama took office? He 'inherited a mess', housing bubble, market crash, etc. Guess what? Trump inherited a different kind of mess, a stagnant economy with few avenues toward growth due to regulatory and tax burden, due to jobs moving overseas, due to automation and shifting requirements on the skillset of the American workforce. That ship ain't turning around any time soon, even policy enacted the day Trump took office wouldn't show up in any real numbers for months and months, and the jobs available in our increasingly automated world will take retraining of many people to see any real movement there.

My typical caveat that I don't support Trump, I feel like i need to spell that out in all these threads cause everyone thinks you're a ballwasher if you just try to talk common sense instead of blindly bashing him over the head.
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Re: May jobs, up 138K, thanks, Donald! [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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oldandslow wrote:
Windywave is in the "all the numbers are completely made up" camp. You seem to be interested in the other numbers in report, which is totally correct, and that is where the true mediocrity lies. Folks out of the labor force rose to nearly 95M. The drop to 4.3% was due primarily to a drop in the labor participation rate to 62.7%. Part time jobs were up. The brightest spot was wage growth, which rose 2.5% year over year. Given a big boom in the market, and rising house prices, this is decidedly "meh". It strengthens the argument that the US economy is basically approaching full employment, and this is nearly as good as it gets. We did it, America is now Great Again!

You did a wonderful job of mischaracterization of what i said. Bravo.
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Re: May jobs, up 138K, thanks, Donald! [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
oldandslow wrote:
Windywave is in the "all the numbers are completely made up" camp. You seem to be interested in the other numbers in report, which is totally correct, and that is where the true mediocrity lies. Folks out of the labor force rose to nearly 95M. The drop to 4.3% was due primarily to a drop in the labor participation rate to 62.7%. Part time jobs were up. The brightest spot was wage growth, which rose 2.5% year over year. Given a big boom in the market, and rising house prices, this is decidedly "meh". It strengthens the argument that the US economy is basically approaching full employment, and this is nearly as good as it gets. We did it, America is now Great Again!


You did a wonderful job of mischaracterization of what i said. Bravo.

No he didn't. You used the term "whole cloth" which means complete fabrication. Which means "completely made up."

Own your words.
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Re: May jobs, up 138K, thanks, Donald! [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
windywave wrote:
oldandslow wrote:
Windywave is in the "all the numbers are completely made up" camp. You seem to be interested in the other numbers in report, which is totally correct, and that is where the true mediocrity lies. Folks out of the labor force rose to nearly 95M. The drop to 4.3% was due primarily to a drop in the labor participation rate to 62.7%. Part time jobs were up. The brightest spot was wage growth, which rose 2.5% year over year. Given a big boom in the market, and rising house prices, this is decidedly "meh". It strengthens the argument that the US economy is basically approaching full employment, and this is nearly as good as it gets. We did it, America is now Great Again!


You did a wonderful job of mischaracterization of what i said. Bravo.

No he didn't. You used the term "whole cloth" which means complete fabrication. Which means "completely made up."

Own your words.

For the headline number dingleberries. It's a statistical calculation. Do you know what seasonal adjustment means? The revised numbers are better but the survey methodology leaves something to be desired according to the fucking stats PhDs who look at this stuff.
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Re: May jobs, up 138K, thanks, Donald! [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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I see where clarification is needed .... I don't care if there is a revision up or down because the baseline headline number is made up. To be honest dig into the revised numbers and look at the sectors creating and losing jobs and also whether full time or part time for whether the numbers are good or bad. That being said it's still not a great metric.
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