This is relatively meaningless given the polls, and unless Hilary implodes, is indicted (not likely despite the constant spooging of the thought by the remedial Right) or is shot (though I've always thought the sympathy fake assassination attempt would work for either side) she is going to be POTUS.

Hail Mary's almost never work. BUT, given this is the internet & everyone is always right in their own mind....here are the boxes that need to get checked:
1. Conservative--Trump MUST win over the Talkies + give "the base" a hope for an eventual conservative POTUS.
2. Be personable--this is a beauty contest after all. Trump knows what wins Ms. Universe competitions.
3. Be absolutely newsworthy (though controversial is maybe/possibly just as good). Multi-cycle newsworthy. Cruz got 14 hours out of Carly. Swing and a miss.....
4. Put a purple state into play. Without Ohio AND Florida the Pubes don't have a chance. I don't see Florida going Trump given the hispanic % of the population.
5. Finally, (and I'm sure there are probably 20 other possible criteria): does he even really want it? I think he is having a friggin fantastic time & has yet to show he is in any way serious about anything except "winning"....and probably that in a Charlie Sheen type way. Seriously what is wrong with the Right....you are about to nominate a male Palin as your standard bearer....

If Indiana goes it is over, and if I'm Trump & I win Indiana, and I really want to be POTUS, here is how I play it:

Sell the entire package--give a bit of red meat every two weeks after cinching it in CA--start talking about your cabinet positions & putting the most visible & popular (and controversial) choices in spots but leave the VP for LAST. Make it a game show/reality show, where EVERYONE will be discussing who is possibly next to be chosen & they have to tune in to be "in the know". Sec State? How about throwing Palin out as a possibliity......that will guarantee 2 weeks of coverage (mostly negative, and then you drop her like a bad habit & pick someone reasonable (to make it seem like you are open to compromise/reasonable)) but during that 2 weeks you'll own the airways as she will vampire up the publicity & kill to be in the spotlight again. And then you appoint a retired 4 star hawk who will make the far right imperialists super, super happy. Treasury? Mark Cuban. Or one of the other Shark Tank personalities---a business person, preferably self-made, who is VERY popular (and no, the flat tax dudes don't get picked (but maybe considered). Someone who can make economic theory "fun". Secretary of the Interior? Throw the Greenies a bone while also ensuring the NRA nutters that they are going to be super happy. Someone who likes hiking. But also LOVES hunting. Ted Nugent would be perfect. 2 more weeks of 24/7 coverage.

Keep playing that tune up to the convention. Be as anti-establishment as possible. And then choose a Sean Hannity or Hugh Hewitt as your running mate. The entire Talkie universe will kneel. You'll have an attack dog who knows how to bark, bite & attack & doesn't give a F about the fallout.

That is how he can win. By making it about everyone but him. Because if it is about him, he gets crushed.

What a shit storm we are in for.

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"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." John Rogers

Must have hit a nerve. Don't worry, I've learned to like you. I'm sure I can fine a useful trait in you for the apocalypse. You might not like it, but I'm sure I can find something useful in you.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

You are clearly the Theon Greyjoy of the LR.

Embrace it.

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"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." John Rogers

Fixed it for you. You would be my Reek.

By the way, I agree with you on your other post. I think trump will perform better than anticipated at this point. But it is hillary to win barring uncontrollable circumstances. An indictment I don't have much faith in, health problem, or turnout issues. If she gets some segments that beyond Obama seldom turnout, it's hers. It will all be about turnout and Latinos will be extra motivated, that is for sure.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

How many large Latino populations live in purple states and how many wouldn't have voted democratic anyways? The biggest wild card is Cubans in Florida.

Florida Cubans are pretty red. It's the Puerto Ricans in central Florida that vitr blue. Polls have suggested AZ is in play driven I suppose by Latin anti-trump sentiment. I don't know how much weight I put in that. Nevada could be an issue. North Carolina had a huge Mexican and illegal immigrant population.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

Hey Theon, I know math isn't your strong suit, being the super Alpha accountant you are, but show my a path to 538 without the pubes winning both Ohio & Florida. Or are you listening to Mark Levin's delusional rants about 2-3 third or fourth party candidates running so congress decides?

Trump literally has nothing to lose. Why not make a complete shitstorm (mockery) of the process & go down in infamy/

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"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." John Rogers

BTW, all the Righties are totally discounting the Hugh Hewitt factor. Next to Dick Morris, who is now reduced to trolling (ok, "commenting") in WND and Newsmax land, there hasn't been a pundit who has been more wrong, more often than Hewitt when it comes to politics. Google Romney Rising......

He has been pushing the establishment/anti-Trump coalition for a long time. When HH is on your team (and might be the main reason that the Browns & other sports franchises are life-long losers), it might be time to find a new coach.

Rush is at least shallow enough to see thru. Most of the brain-dead right who think Hugh "is Switzerland", aren't smart enough to operate an ATM, much less figure out who they should vote for unless told.

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"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." John Rogers

in terms of black swans, what effect would a terrorist incident before the election have? normally i'd say people would run to the conservatives, but i think historically that's been because conservatives are perceived to be strong on defense a steady hand on the tiller. trump is anything but. hillary, on the other hand, is pretty much a centrist hawk.

-mike

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https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

I listen to Trump but he never says anything.

The party of tolerance, like Islam is the religion of peace.


I prefer this:

Sell the entire package--give a bit of red meat every two weeks after cinching it in CA--start talking about your cabinet positions & putting the most visible & popular (and controversial) choices in spots but leave the VP for LAST. Make it a game show/reality show, where EVERYONE will be discussing who is possibly next to be chosen & they have to tune in to be "in the know". Sec State? How about throwing Palin out as a possibliity......that will guarantee 2 weeks of coverage (mostly negative, and then you drop her like a bad habit & pick someone reasonable (to make it seem like you are open to compromise/reasonable)) but during that 2 weeks you'll own the airways as she will vampire up the publicity & kill to be in the spotlight again. And then you appoint a retired 4 star hawk who will make the far right imperialists super, super happy. Treasury? Mark Cuban. Or one of the other Shark Tank personalities---a business person, preferably self-made, who is VERY popular (and no, the flat tax dudes don't get picked (but maybe considered). Someone who can make economic theory "fun". Secretary of the Interior? Throw the Greenies a bone while also ensuring the NRA nutters that they are going to be super happy. Someone who likes hiking. But also LOVES hunting. Ted Nugent would be perfect. 2 more weeks of 24/7 coverage.

You should sell this screenplay to Hollywood...

Of the two I think Hillary's response old be in line with bush's. But the politically the public views republicans as stronger.

Personally I would prefer trumps response based on what he has said so far. I think we tend to over react. He'll talk tough, but I don't see him invading anybody. Hillary edges him out on that possibility.

Trump also says what people want to hear, so I think that would play to his benefit.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

The more radical parts of the Chicano movement have always viewed the American southwest and California as part of Mexico. Look up the Mecha, la raza, aztlan and reconquista.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

Look up plan of San Diego.

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"In the world I see you are stalking elk through the damp canyon forests around the ruins of Rockefeller Center. You'll wear leather clothes that will last you the rest of your life. You'll climb the wrist-thick kudzu vines that wrap the Sears Towers. And when you look down, you'll see tiny figures pounding corn, laying stripes of venison on the empty car pool lane of some abandoned superhighway." T Durden

No doubt, with the help of the Democrat party they are speeding toward that direction.

Which they were until around the 1840's. Pretty recent as far as global conflicts go.

National polls don't matter (though Friday's Rassmussen had Hill and Donald tied at 38). In 1980, Carter was leading Reagan at this point by big numbers. Trump is at record numbers for Republican voters and Hillary has less than she had in 2008. Trump is going to be the next president.

Americans: go to Paris now while they still like you.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

  



How about these? Every protest group has its fringe nutters.

Here's a better reason:

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/