gary p wrote:
FindinFreestyle wrote:
gary p wrote:
jrielley wrote:
This is similar to using a 1 mile/5k race to predict a marathon.More like trying to predict a half marathon time from somebody's 100 meter dash time.
The funny thing is, it's proving to be pretty accurate, whereas the same would probably not hold true for your 100 meter dash / marathon metaphor. Why do you think that might be?
Does your sample include any actual sprinters? Or is it just long course triathletes who never actually train for sprints? The projections just seem wildly optimistic to me, someone who has one foot firmly in the Masters pool swimming world but who also dabbles in open water and triathlon. I can do a 12.79 25 yard free, off the wall. I'm a pretty unremarkable sprinter; there are over a hundred guys in my age group Nationally who are faster sprinters than me. But your formula suggests I should be able to keep pace with, or be slightly ahead of, the small group of guys in my age group who are contenders for the USMS National Championships in the 1000/1650/1 mile open water/2mile open water/2.4 mile open water events.
Your 12.79 / 25 yard sprint predicts a 2.4 mile swim split of mid 50:xx Call it a 50:30 (3% slower is roughly 52 flat. 3% faster is roughly 49 flat) As I said, the faster you go the more it tends to underestimate, so if we give you a 5% range, on the high end you're looking at a 53 flat. Are you saying you could not do that if you were well trained for it?
My original sample was done by estimating the speed degradation of excellent distance swimmers. I calculated their 25 yard splits in a mile swim being 130% of their estimated 25 yard sprint speed, and used 140% for their 2 mile+ 25 yard pace.
Last edited by:
FindinFreestyle: Nov 24, 17 13:41