echappist wrote:
Jason N wrote:
I think Nibali and Quintana realize that the only way they are going to jump TD by the end of the week is if he cracks hard. Last time TD was leading a grand tour heading into the final weekend, he cracked hard and lost 4 minutes to the GC during stage 20 of the 2015 Vuelta...so they know its possible. They aren't just going to ride away and put 2+ minutes while he's still capable of riding a strong tempo. They just don't have that much of a superior w/kg right now.
So I think they are putting in some short digs to see if TD is on the ropes. When they realize he's not in trouble, there is no point in continuing the move thus burying themselves to gain 10-15 seconds...so they let it come back together.
When they got to the crest of the last climb, they were in TD territory with 3km to go...again, no point in them using any energy and see if TD would burn some energy chasing Pinot while they sit in the draft...hoping it will add up to his fatigue in the event they can crack him tomorrow or Saturday. TD was smart enough not to go too hard...pretty textbook all the way around if you ask me.
TD may or may not crack in the last 2 stages...but I think it's the only card Nibali and Quintana can play at this point.
difference is that the last stage of the 2015 Vuelta was exceedingly hilly and similar to today's Giro stage. The next two mountain stages are nothing alike. Best thing Nibbles and Quintana could do is to send riders up and hope that they make the rendez-vous toward the top of the climb on the last day and have their teammates pull them away (15 km of flat from top of GPM to finish).
Yeah, I don't see it happening the next two stages, but for those saying that Quintana isn't racing to win, I believe he is...he's just outmatched right now and he knows it. He knows his best shot is not to just throw the kitchen sink at TD just because the road is pointing up. He's got to get lucky and hope for an off day and pounce on that if it ever comes (also with the right mix of teammates up the road as you mentioned). TD was clearly on form today, and no teammates up the road...so Quintana will hope for better luck tomorrow or Saturday even if the profile doesn't favor it.
We all know races are not won on paper, and what "should happen." Sometimes the easier stages on paper can be the most difficult and stressful. I actually applaud Quintana for trying a few times today, but at the same time being smart enough to know what his "best" chances are.
ETA: Allowing Pinot and others to gain time may actually benefit Quintana and Nibali's chances to isolate TD, as it brings more threats to the overall GC. Yes it also brings threats to their podium spots, but as prior GT overall winners, I think they are all in for pink, not the podium.