You are good at this stuff
In your opinion, from that list, who turns down a contract if offered ?
Speculating who on that list might turn down an offer is a stretch target too far (and I prefer numbers).
Though a key consideration for those with other fish to fry will be the terms of the contract eg
- minimum number of starts (was 5+1 out of 7+1 this year, 5 and 7 reduced to 4 and 6 by loss of GF venue)
- and if the number of score to count is upped (from 3+1).
Those who want to race Roth and or IMWC will need to decide what their primary objective is and whether that’s compatible with satisfying the T100 contract.
I can see the T100 GF being only a week after IM70.3WC Marbella (8-9 Nov) which is going to detract from Marbella (T100 GF is obligatory/contracted).
I’ve said for a year and a half that this year’s IM70.3WC in Taupo is the last one that will have all the best MD athletes racing ((but NB not Van Riel).
Since Nice in 2019 (which lost the odd top shot to Kona prep (Haug, Frodeno),
- No 2020 (replaced effectively by PTO 100 Daytona)
- 2021 was affected by Covid friction/aftermath
- 2022 was affected by Kona three weeks before.
- 2023 was affected by T100 Singapore the week before (Gentle, LCB, Haug, West, Blu).
Surely geens would also be in the hotshot discussion.
I left Geens off the ‘top 13’ - apologies: he will get an offer because he is well ranked on the PTO Rankings list. Won’t need a ‘hot shot’ slot, even before he aces Taupo.
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fair enough
I suspect many that took contracts last year made last minute decisions when the ProSeries popped up and they underestimated the difficulty in doing both.
it will be really interesting to see if they try that again.
Kat comes to mind.
What about Bergere as a candidate for “Hot Shot”… what about the women’s list? I think the top 10 from T100 will likely end with Flora moving into the top ten and LCB moving out of the top 10 and Spivey probably in 11th, just missing out on a Gold contract.
They will 100% offer Bergere a contract. No idea if he will take it.
Timeframe (to address the ‘last minute decision’ suspicion)
The IM Pro Series list of events/dates/venues was announced in October iirc.
The T100 contracts were offered in December (using the rankings as at 4 Dec (again iirc)).
Athletes/coaches/managers had plenty of time to consider the key Series dates and world champs dates (IM and 70.3) in 2024
I suggest that nearly all those offered contracts (not the ‘hot shot’ ones) signed the contracts (which came with a list of dates/continents) with a clear sight of how the Tour and Series and world champs might integrate/interfere (and the validation regime had also been shared).
Of those offered contracts based on PTO Rankings (ie top 16 with roll downs) only Blummenfelt and Lange said ‘no’. Some hot shot contract offers were aiui refused.
At the time there was a reasonable assessment that if athletes didn’t jump on the train it might not stop for them at the end of the year (ie Dec 2024).
Actually most of the top 20 PTO ranked have at least one non-T100 score so the ‘closed league’ concern has not been realised (but still an issue).
Of the long distance capable ‘top 7’ (Ryf Sodaro Philipp Haug Knibb LCB and Matthews) counting Knibb out because of Paris the rest (and not 20-20 hindsight) will have sensibly decided to race T100, get validation done (LCB late decision after two excellent T100 scores) and head for Nice.
Apart from Matthews, sensibly, no other athlete has tried to do both series. She seems to have managed it, though. Heading for a decent finish in the T100. Might she have beaten Philipp in Nice if she’d raced less? We’ll never know, but beating an athlete who runs 2:44 off a hard bike is next level.
@Lagoon said “They will 100% offer Bergere a contract. No idea if he will take it.”
Agree: I left Bergère off my list because he is still young so assume he will crack on in SC. Of the Paris FRA three, Le Corre is the oldest and like Bergère has already shown he can win a 70.3.
However, Le Corre is the only one of those three (four with Luis) who has not won a (SC) World Championships.
Women’s list: another post!
I was going to include Coldwell as a ‘hot shot’, however (happy) Events, dear girl, events! (as MacMillan didn’t say)
How sure are we that they’re going to create only 4 hot shot slots per sex?
It would make sense to either:
- award 10 contracts based on this year’s ranking to make more room for hot shots - but they may have made promises they have to keep;
- increase the number of contracts above 20 (and of course the fields); this may or may not cost a lot more money.
Pretty sure - but PTO make the rules.
The PTO have said from an early stage, per gender: 10 by T100 Standings after GF (contracts early Dec)
a further 6 from PTO Rankings (ish) - actual text (link and scroll down about 3/4; and subscribed:
Expect those 6 contracts to be offered post Taupo (to allow top performances there to be included in the rankings). Roll downs, if refusals, into Christmas/NY.
and 4 hot shots - before Christmas.
Pretty sure that Renouf, when asked about ?20 or more? contracts on a ProTriNews pod (21 Oct), confirmed “20”. But I inferred that the PTO might shade that by allowing (say) 22 on each start list, to give wildcards more frequent opportunities.
". . . there’s also the opportunity for athletes to earn their T100 Triathlon contract for 2025 . . . The top 10 athletes in the T100 Triathlon standings at the end of the season will guarantee themselves a T100 contract in 2025.
“The next 6 contracted athletes for 2025 will be decided through analysis of PTO Rankings and those who’ve shone with standout performances in the 2024 season. The final 4 contracts will go to Hotshot athletes – those with the x-factor to shake up the racing regardless of ranking or recent [MD/LD] performances. That could be a former all-star coming back from injury or an Olympian making the move to long-distance racing.”
- The PTO reserves the right to change qualification criteria without notice.
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Women (offers):
Combo of top 10 T100 and the extra 6:
1TaylorKnibb
2AshleighGentle
3IndiaLee
4ImogenSimmonds
5LauraPhilipp
6KatMatthews
7LucyByram
8PaulaFindlay
9JulieDerron
10LucyCharles-Barclay (may not get gold (top10) but is high in PTO Rankings and ex-IMWC 2023)
11FloraDuffy (will go into top T100 10)
12EmmaPallant-Browne (on basis of PTO ranking)
13AnneHaug (ex-IMWC 2019, after non-fulfillment of 2024 contract, maybe not; surprised if she signs)
14ChelseaSodaro (PTO Ranking and ex-IMWC 2022; after non-fulfillment of 2024 contract, maybe not)
15TaylorSpivey (likely to move to top 20 in rankings after Dubai and multi Olympic (MTR) silver)
16CarolynPohle (two IM Pro Series 70.3 wins and PTO Ranking)
Hot Shots:
Hering?
Some of these (30+ year old) SC athletes:
Betto, Bravo, Michel, Van Coervorden, Klamer, Kasper, GTB, Vermeylen, Kingma
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Doubt Hering would accept a contract given her success at IM Pro Series… and she’s not the type to accept the contract and blow it off… guess it depends how many races are required.
Looks like T100 Vancouver June 13-15 2025 needs to be added to the calendar
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was going to post this - rumor was out there. Kind of disappointed as I was picturing the race around Stanley Park - but the old Subaru race was in the area proposed area around UBC and was pretty good with a nice hill and some pretty areas. Swimming with the mountains in the background was really pretty. Really happy to see somewhere close - and hopefully the tri community shows up!
I think it’s great that this location is getting a race again. The old Subaru Series race at Jericho was one of my first ever races and I’ve missed having an event there.
Mid-June is an interesting choice for the race date as there is a pretty decent chance that the water will still be cold and it will be pouring rain in mid-June in Van. The old date on Canada day weekend would probably be better.
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“T100 Vancouver Multisport Festival will include elite women’s and men’s triathlon races, amateur races, junior and youth categories, school multisport activities, an open-water swim, and a 5 km Fun Run.” From that article.
I wonder if all the future T100s have this as their plan. I wonder what school multi sport activities means but if they are going to involve high school sports teams from across the region that’s a really great idea. Just even thinking about cross country races alone they can be pretty big. Why not integrate with some of the high school sports calendars if you have the bandwidth to get that rolling.
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Here is my analysis of the 2025 T100 contract race. The two major opportunities left for PTO rankings points and standout performances are Dubai T100 and Ironman 70.3 World Championship. Ironman 70.3 Bahrain and Ironman 70.3 Western Australia are the two remaining Gold tier races that could potentially factor in as well for some athletes.
Locks
I consider athletes locks mostly based on their PTO score at this point because I haven’t dug into points scenarios for the T100 standings to figure out who is actually a lock to be in the top 10 regardless of how Dubai goes.
Name (projected contract group)
Van Riel (T100 top 10)
Ditlev (T100 top 10)
Smith (T100 top 10)
Long (T100 top 10)
Noodt (Next 6 PTO)
Keulen (T100 top 10)
Laidlow (T100 top 10)
Noodt will very likely not end up in the T100 top 10, but will surely be one of the group of 6 based on T100 performance and PTO score. Note that Ditlev will not race the required 5 T100 races, though I believe he was present at one and DNS due to sickness, so perhaps he is viewed as having satisfied the requirement. I don’t think he’d be left out as he didn’t blow off T100 to the extent some other contracted athletes did.
Should Be Safe
This next group contains athletes that are likely to be in the T100 top 10 with a normal performance in Dubai as well as athletes that will likely be in group of the next 6 highest PTO scores. These athletes all have a current PTO score above 91.0 and have all performed well at T100 races this year. Barring a large set of impressive performances from other athletes in the major races the rest of the year, I have a hard time seeing these athletes not being offered.
Heemeryck (T100 top 10)
Margirier (T100 top 10)
Bogen (T100 top 10)
Brownlee (T100 top 10)
Von Berg (Next 6 PTO)
Funk (Next 6 PTO)
Geens (Next 6 PTO)
Any of these athletes could move into lock status with a great race. Geens especially as he has the best two race PTO score of the group. All except Geens and probably Von Berg are right in the mix for T100 top 10.
On the Bubble
The above analysis leaves likely 2 more spots in the “Next 6 PTO” group of contracts. It sounds like this won’t be strictly based on PTO score/ranking but also consider standout performances. This group of athletes would likely be considered for these spots regardless of their results the rest of the season.
Benito Lopez
Mann
Baekkegard
Lange
Benito Lopez and Mann have both had good T100 performances as well as impressive non-T100 performances. Baekkegard has a great T100 performance and is also still in the mix for the T100 top 10. All three could use another great race to ensure they stay above others who could jump them with a great race. I don’t think Lange is likely to be involved with T100 next year, but his Ironman World Championship certainly qualifies as a standout performance that would make him worthy of one of the next 6 contracts.
Need Another Good Race
As it stands now, I think the athletes in this group are on the outside looking in for the top 16 contracts unless they have another good race.
West
- The average of his top two scores is 89.77 which would put him in 21st in the PTO rankings right now. He likely needs his best race of the season at either Dubai or Taupo to move up high enough. If it is at Dubai, he can still possibly sneak into the T100 top 10 as well. He also hasn’t used his gold tier 5% bonus, so could greatly benefit from doing one of the remaining gold tier 70.3s against lesser competition. West has by far the most opportunities remaining to move up out of this group, but he has to perform well again somewhere.
Foley
- The average of his top two scores is 92.38 which would put him in 9th in the PTO rankings right now. Taupo will be his chance for another big score.
Bitados
- The average of his top two scores is 89.49 which would put him in 21st in the PTO rankings right now. Taupo will be his chance for another big score. He also has only raced a single gold tier or above race this year, so he could probably bump his score up by doing one of the remaining gold tier 70.3s as well.
Sanders
- The average of his top two scores is 91.64 which would put him in 12th in the PTO rankings right now. However, I don’t believe he is racing Taupo and he is already using his gold tier 5% bonus, so there isn’t a remaining opportunity for him to score high points. His two Ironman Pro Series 70.3 wins could be considered standout enough performances to warrant a contract.
Koolhaas
Barnaby
- Koolhaas and Barnaby have very similar profiles. Neither really have a bad result to replace. In Koolhass’s favor is that he performed well in a T100 race this year. Barnaby still has an opportunity for a big score at Taupo (though not terribly likely). Neither of them have had a standout result this year either. I don’t see either of them getting a contract.
Lindars
- He has two really good scores this year and a fairly poor third score so he’s been on my radar as someone that could move up the ranking quickly with another good race. The average of his top two scores is 90.68 which would put him in 15th in the PTO rankings right now. However, he won’t be at Dubai or Taupo and I don’t know if he plans to race one of the remaining gold tier 70.3s. He’s already using his gold tier 5% bonus though, so likely not a great chance of another high enough scoring race to move into the top ~20.
Need a Surprise Amazing Race
Chevalier
Mignon
Marquardt
Hanson
Hogenhaug
Wurf
Stratmann
Laundry
Stepniak
Royle
Nieschlag
Kanute
Weiss
Hotshot Contenders
There are lots of possibilities for these 4 spots. I have these names in order of some combination of my projection of T100’s desire to have them and their likely interest.
Wilde
Blummenfelt
Bergere
Luis
Sanders
Bitados
Foley
Iden
Lange
West
Nieschlag
Le Corre
Schoeman
Neumann
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Great analysis
I’d offer the following comments:
- Ditlev turned up to race Singapore but crashed in training/recce: absolutely satisfied contract requirement.
- Geens did not earn a start for Dubai. But he will for sure get one of the 11-16 offers (after LLV win and expect goes well in Taupo so likely top 12 in PTO Rankings).
- Nieschlag raced well in LLV but relies on a result in Taupo for a 11-16 via PTO Rankings. Would enhance chances if he raced Busso too, en route. In the balance.
- Baekkegard has had, imho, a lacklustre T100 performance so far (where do you get “great” from) and has to hope he finishes T100 top 10. Ranked PTO #17 (and will drop) he probably won’t get a contract offer otherwise (11-16) though I suppose his SM presence may help him.
- Lange will get an offer but sure to refuse: 100km is too short, as we’ve seen.
- Think Mann will miss out: I cannot judge his T100 result “great”: Noodt, Funk and Bogen can fly the Schwarz-Rot-Gold.
- Lopez probably will get an offer as need a Spaniard in the mix (but same: I cannot judge his T100 result “great”)
- Think Foley will have to wait: he’s been unlucky this year.
- Expect Bitados to get an offer provided he finishes (say) top 7 in Taupo; and as a Greek.
- Hotshots: Blummenfelt, Wilde, Iden, no Australian good enough, Bergere, Luis
- Sanders for the entertainment factor
ProTriNews discusses this, but bit confused (@12:00 for 10 minutes)
Pro Tri News Podcast Series – Apple Podcasts
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PTN discussed this, but forgot about one important thing.
They looked at T100 top10 as automatic qualifiers for 2025, like if T100 top11 would be a disaster. However the next PTO top6 world ranking that aren’t T100 top10 will also get an automatic qualifier. After Dubai, Mika Noodt and LCB will definitely drop from T100 top10, but they’ll remain automatic qualifiers from the other top6 excl. T100.