Baekkegard had a podium (3rd) in London, otherwise pretty lackluster year. He does put out fantastic YouTube content though. I wonder if PTO factors social media following in their decision to offer contracts or is it strictly performance based. It would be interesting to see Foley in a T100. Of course his swim is a huge liability, but if Long was also racing they could work together on the bike so it would benefit both of them. His run should be deadly, up there with the top short course athletes.
I would say that Matt Hauser could come in and shake up just about any race, even podium right away, and Luke Willian would certainly be middle of the pack…
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PTN did shade that, reflecting that 11-16 are a combo of PTO Ranking “analysis” and ‘stand out’ performances: so next 6 on PTO rankings NOT auto Q.
On those woolly criteria, there are some who are sure to get 11-16 contract offers, if they don’t make top #10 and gold ones (PTO ranking in( )).
Men (six; and a few will be top 10):
Brownlee (14) double Oly Champion
Noodt (8) set to be right up there but injured
RvB (9) did well in IMWC
Geens (13) and T100 winner
Funk (10) great bloke
Bogen (12) 70.3 WC 2023
Women (six; none will be T100 top 10):
LCB (9) 2023 IMWC
EPB (12) and drama
Spivey (119, may make top 10 if a DNS above her, but PTO top 20 after Dubai) Oly medallist
Sodaro (13) IMWC 2022 (but after chinning off so many races ?? Hope she has a good agent/advocate)
Pohle (15) two 70.3 IM Pro Series wins and should have had two T100 but injured
Haug (11; but a) as Sodaro and b) if offered likely will say ‘no thanks’; perfectly capable of winning IM Pro Series and Roth again)
Post partum possibility / hot shots: mums (NB Sodaro came back that quick for Collins Cup)
I hoped someone would bite on the Australian bit ; thank you @monty but do you think Hauser wants to? I’m sure he’d be very competitive.
Nieschlag I suppose belongs in a similar category as Bitados, but even moreso needs 2 more better scores as you point out. He would need a 95.46 score to tie for 16th as it stands now. I definitely missed putting him in the Need a Surprise Amazing Race group.
For Baekkegard, I was referring to a single great performance, his podium in London. I was looking for the “standout performance” criterion with this group and that may qualify. You are right though that he is one of the few athletes still using a 2023 score and will drop slightly once that is not counted.
Benito Lopez and Mann I agree, good not great T100 performances as mentioned. They both have at least an Ironman Pro Series race win, which could be considered a “standout performance”.
I think Foley is pretty well positioned points wise. It’s going to be interesting watching him, Mann, Benito Lopez, Bitados, and probably West battle in Taupo for those last few spots (though all likely off the podium).
Yeah, Noodt is safe. For that whole group sitting between 91-94 PTO score, getting top 10 T100 probably doesn’t matter, but would be nice to not have to worry. Certainly for Baekkegard, West, and Royle, it is quite important.
You’re right, I’m not.
Thanks for clarifying of the top6 NOT auto-qualifiers.
Dragging this across (from the 2024 thread)
“what SC athletes will be racing T100 next year?”
GTB
Derron
Duffy
Spivey
Knibb
maybe Loevseth
are the current SC WPROs I expect to be racing T100 next year. Who else?
I think just dragging (on contract) a top 20 SC athlete straight into T100 is a lottery: they need to prove themselves (and demo they deserve wildcards)
I assume Blummenfelt will get offered and take a ‘hot shot’ contract. I’d give one to Iden too. Luis is sure to get one and of the Olympic FRA team maybe Bergère too (he is TQ so we’ll see him there). They can’t give one to all 3; or can they?
Wilde a ‘hot shot’ for sure. Think there’s too much competition for contracts to offer Yee one. And surely Beaugrand, Potter and Tertsch will stay SC. Lindemann?
Geens and Van Riel are shoe ins (one gold, one as a 11-16 on ranking).
If Brownlee senior doesn’t make top 10, he’ll get an ‘on ranking’ one too (#14). Can’t see Brownlee junior being included. He needs to go and earn his spurs in MD races. He was all in for Paris and after non-selection not unreasonably has concentrated on other stuff (wedding).
“mid pack ITU finishes [are] dominating T100”
Is Knibb mid-pack ITU? Is Gentle? Is Derron? Is Duffy? I think not.
Think it harsh to call Van Riel mid-pack ITU btw (#4 in Tokyo and #2 in WTCS 2021 Final). Same for Geens: #3 2022 Grand Final (beating Yee) and consistent top 6 in multiple SC events every season.
You say “brutally honest”: I’d say erroneous: Van Riel and Geens have been top tier, just not this year.
You’re welcome.
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Had a quick skim through here and will get involved in chat tomorrow, be surprised if T100 wouldn’t want to offer an Olympic Gold, Silver and Bronze Olympic medalist an automatic slot though.
To have both Brownlee brothers racing in T100 next year would be quite big for them.
To be brutally honest Gentle was even lower than mid pack when she left ITU. Lapped out in Tokyo remember.Her swim had just become too big a deficit to overcome in draft races. There likely will be other ITU athletes who have recent years found themselves at the wrong end of the swim packs who will come across and do very well.
I think Matt has a clear weakness on the bike leg. This usually doesn’t bode well for moving up to non-draft distances. I’ve always wondered why it was so.
This whole discussion for next year’s contracts highlights to me the need for the PTO to increase the number of athletes that can be entered into each race in 2025. They can still offer 20 contracts only, but I’d like them to have 10 spots per race on top of the contracted athletes (regardless of how many contracted athletes race). This could be 2 or 3 athletes from the PTO points list (waiting list) and another 7 or 8 would be wildcards (for high level short course athletes mostly).
This would allow all of Blummenfeldt, Iden, LeCorre, Bergere, Bitados, Wilde (and other short course athletes) to experience the T100 while still focusing on the WTCS and Olympic qualifications mostly.
And it would make the T100 races that much more interesting still.
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midpack or in some cases even failled itu now t 100 athletes
laidlow funk bakegard bogen smith keulen west koolhass heemeryck mergiere royle noodt von berg kanute stepniak
so i guess by and large its not wrong to say that many t100 athletes were aprrox midpack
at the same time i think royal wat 8th at oly games and that is defo not mid pack .
He was also U23 World Champion. But didn’t quite live up to the hype after that, although as you said his 8th at the Olympics is great. But this was mostly due to him being among the top swimmers and benefiting from the Brownlee bikeaway train that was prominent in those years.
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On the men’s side, yes. These races would be better if they could expand the field and get all these guys racing each other.
However, they’re already struggling to fill women’s fields. The pool of women that could contend near the front this year was just not that large. It then didn’t help that so many women didn’t prioritize their contracted races. There were a variety of reasons (some good), but I think I counted and only 9 of the 20 contracted women will end up racing 5 T100 races this year. That’s gotta be disappointing for T100.
Yes, that’s a good point about women.
Ash Gentle of today is a completely different athlete to when she did ITU.
The minute she wasn’t controlled by AUS-TRI she was a much better athlete. Not everything is just the athlete in ITU.
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Think this has been discussed many times over. Expanding the field won’t change much, no one really cares what happens after the top 5 or 6. It’s barely close
A much better approach would be to give contracts (outside the auto top 10) to pros who are entirely focused on middle distances. This will avoid folks showing up just to fulfill their contacts having done an IM like 1-2 weeks ago
Athletes were contracted to race 5 out of 7 regular season races, and then they cancelled the GF in Oman. So 4 of 6 became the requirement, plus the 3 Olympians raced every race they could, iaw their contract. I suggest that’s a fairer metric than ‘raced 5’.
The following women failed to honour their contract for reasons various, some good, some less so (objectively):
Haug, Ryf, Philipp, Sodaro, LCB, Pierré (plus Lawrence and Moench: the two new mums now or to be).
As for an “approach to give contracts (outside the auto top 10) [only] to pros who [commit not to race IM or Roth] distances”, surely neither you ( @asianzone ), we or the PTO want to exclude this cohort. They bring colour, competition and inclusivity to the front end. Four of the current top 10 (M and W) have race full distance this year. Do you want to exclude them? (The PTO doesn’t.) These are the athletes you’d exclude (actually or from consideration - these will not finish T100 top 10):
LCB, Haug, Sodaro, Hering, Visser, Pierré, Kanute, Baekkegard, RvB, Blummenfelt, Iden, Koolhaas, Lange, Laidlow?, Stepniak, Lopez,
And wrt only a week or two after an IM, I can only think of Matthews who raced Ibiza a week after the IMWC in Nice: who else just “showed up just to fulfill their contacts having done an IM like 1-2 weeks ago”?
I note that Matthews came #3 in London after IM Vitoria a fortnight earlier.
There were lots of tired legs in London after Roth and another IM
I am only guessing Haug, RVB, Laura would have preferred not to be there and maybe 1 or 2 others
Anyway the cohort you mentioned would have largely auto qualified for 2025
And I wonder how many of this list will sign or be offered a contract :
Haug, Ryf, Philipp, Sodaro, LCB, Pierré. Matthews (added).
My bet, one or two. Of course Ryf won’t
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That’s just the point. This ‘cohort’ is a list of those who will NOT AQ for a 2025 gold contract (top 10 in T100 Rankings): I was playing by your criterion.
As for Haug, RvB and Philipp “preferring not to be there” in London, they very deliberately chose to race Roth 3 weeks before.
Philipp and Matthews will be offered a gold contract and both will sign.
LCB will be offered one of the 11-16 ones, and will sign. Imagine her not signing: she wouldn’t able to maintain her SM profile if she wasn’t part of the PTO/T100 narrative.
I am not sure whether they will offer Haug and/or Sodaro one, given their failure to satisfy their contract. Both would get one if it was only PTO Rankings for 11-16. Haug has to sort out what’s going on (and tyres). I can’t understand how she can excel at Lanza and Roth and be second tier the rest of the time. I was surprised she signed this time.
Sodaro doesn’t seem set up for multiple races from April to November and I assume will want to race IMWC Kona: on balance I guess she wouldn’t sign one if offered, or maybe she would and then race two of the 9!
Pierré and Ryf won’t be offered a contract.