I sort of stand corrected now that I’ve mathed it out - its still a judgement call, but the math is below

If Gentle goes to Vegas and wins 35 points, Knibb at 2nd would be 28 point, so the difference is 7 points. If that happens Gentle would be on 105 with Knibb on 98 points. Or if Knibb wins, then they swap scores.

Winner for GF gets 55 points vs 45 for second place, or 10 points, then 5 points less per place down to 5th. So no matter what happens, the GF winner takes the whole series (assuming they go 1-2)

If Gentle stays home, she’s on 92 points vs a max of 105 for Knibb. So, she’d need to win the GF and have Knibb be 3rd or below.

Anyone doing Ibiza and Vegas and Dubai gets max a week and a half of training in (its 3 weeks, but recovery + rest for the next one, plus travel), so its a tougher turn around. Then it’s only 4 weeks to the GF, with another tight turn around back to the middle east. Whereas if you skip Vegas, you get 7 weeks between races and don’t have to take 2 transatlantic flights.

**So the question becomes: does Gentle risk Vegas, knowing that Knibb currently has her number, or does she put in a solid training block, knowing that Knibb has a big race/travel schedule?** (And hope she gets tired).

I guess the answer comes down to a judgement call how she feels Ibiza went vs her potential - whether she can win vs Knibb on current form. But either way the math would be a whole lot easier if they went top 4 count. And if you’re PTO wanting more Gentle vs Knibb matchups, this is what you want, since a 4 scores count system means Gentle goes to Vegas.

My money is on Knibb walking away with the title no matter what Gentle does, so it’s probably all moot anyway