Hello everyone, or rather Yo Yo Yo!
I am wondering if can have some of the ST statistical help here. I am trying to find the financial balance for me between signing a T100 contract or pursuing the Pro Seies. What is the average amount of time you need to be back from the win to win the pro series in the men’s race this year? As an athlete with my strengths and abilities what are your thoughts? Of course the money, from the T100 or Ironman is only one part of my financial equation. Also how would travel expenses likely vary?
The IM Pro Series math is straightforward and I think there was a thread at the beginning of last year detailing it:
The maximum points are 21,500 factoring the different scoring for 3x Ironman and 2x Ironman 70.3.
Barnaby won the series with 19,097 points - he lost ~40 minutes to the winner(s) across his five scoring races. You can average that to ~8 minutes per race.
Compare that to Lange in second place who lost ~48 minutes to the winner(s)
In contrast, Matthews won with 20,761 points - she lost ~12 minutes to the winner(s) so less than three minutes per race.
As you can see, there would appear to be lots of room for a higher score on the men’s side.
The thing that is key for both winners of the Series, they earned top ten placings at both World Championship events (2nd for Matthews both times)… that is likely crucial to getting high scores given the higher points available in those races.
I think for someone like Sam, the Pro Series is the way to go.
To many short course athletes coming in this year that really have no weaknesses in any of the legs…Look at the 70.3 Worlds. Even that was dominated by short course athletes. If you weren’t ~30 seconds behind the lead pack out of the water, you really had no shot.
Yet as was pointed out, Barnaby, who the majority will not have heard of took first in the pro-series. So while you need to get your swim up, even for the full IM, you don’t have to improve it as much to put yourself into positon for your bike/run to be more dominate.
Will have a go later @SamYoYoYo1 but I’d just observe that one needs to take into account the competition in both series/tours.
Lange will surely campaign again and I believe there are a couple of top notch ex SC athletes who have indicated that they will be competing ftw in the IM Pro Series.
So for an athlete who has a poor palmares in long distance the omens are not good cf a T100 contract. On the plus side a USA athlete could race Texas, LP, a couple of USA 70.3s and Nice for a max available of 21,000.
Shading that @rrheisler has pointed out that the great bonuses athletes get from partners for winning/podium Ironmans and even random 70.3s cf boring old T100 races with all that pesky competition (Bergere, Wilde, Geens, van Riel, Bogen, Smith, Le Corre) is so much more important
As you probably know, T100 favors the better swimmers because of the distances relative to IM
That being said, if you knew how much you were going to get with a T100 contract it could lead to less stress in your life
Less stress probably equals better sleep, more happiness and evenness in your life. Which probably would lead to better training on a set schedule and better results
Try the T100 on contract for a year. And see how it goes
You never know it may not even be available next year
As you probably know, @SamYoYoYo1 , unless a troll, has “tried the T100 on contract for a year” and fair to assume he knows “how it goes”.
The amount an athlete might receive from the PTO from a T100 contract has an effective minimum but otherwise is very dependent on performance, especially overall.
That being said, I think you’ll do better in IM Pro Series, but only if you’ll be ready to do 3 IMs. Don’t go the Lionel’s or the Joe’s way to pick & choose. Definitely don’t choose neither - I don’t want you to drop off the radar.
Why IM Pro Series for you?
swim deficit less important in 70.3 and IM (it’s really the key factor here, sadly but realistically)
less dense competition (two Norwegians, Lange and many others, but distributed over many more races than in T100 and you have a pattern of having good results when others are only in the build phase)
less strong competition (the Olympians are stepping up through T100 more than through IM Pro Series)
IM is naturally more American, from leadership to fan base, having an impact on your own fan group and (sponsor) earnings (now and in the future)
Cheers
Edit: statistically / financially you’d need to provide input yourself. The framework for this would probably be like:
Probable financial outcome is the hardest to estimate. You either do a “best guess” for prize money or do another table, where you put places 1-10 in the first column, the probability of placing 1-10 in the second column (sum it up to 100%, but e.g. make the last option “place 10 or lower”, adjusting for a possibility of finishing 11th, 18th, 30th, DNF etc.), prize money for 1-10 in the third column and the multiplication of prize money & probability in the fourth column. The sum of the forth column is your probable prize money + bonus.
IM Pro Series financial result will still get you a PTO bonus end of year, so factor this in. The T100 will have more appearance fee and lower travel costs (only you know by how much, we don’t know your contracts) and still a PTO bonus end of year.
Great point to consider. Without it being an Olympic year, do you think we could see more ITU athletes stepping up, increasing competition, in the T100 series? If so, IM series may be a better choice.
Both series will be significantly more competitive next year. Olympic athletes will up the level in T100 and at the 70.3 distance. Long course specialists will stay away from the T100 and make IM distance more competitive.
My schedule would either be
A full Ironman pro series and maybe 1-2 T100 wildcards
Or T100 contract IM WC Nice (I am already qualified) and hopefully 70.3 WC if can get it in as well.
So both are about racing “the best”. Question is if doing T100 leaves me tired and less chance of doing well at IM WC Nice…
Nice? Do the IM Series, because my belief is you need more IM specific training to be at the top of that distance.
Getting really f*cking fast - T100 probably. But also - consider the mental toll. If you loved it this year, awesome - but it seemed to be a drain. Mostly NA racing will be more comfortable/easier - the more higher level racing in theory will make you better, but only if you are engaged and excited and eager to keep learning.
Best of luck either way. You deserve happiness in your profession!
Following- I think this is a really good question and certainly has a few pro’s scratching their head as they prioritize their racing experiences. Good luck and hope to see you at Ironman Texas!
There’s a lot of unknowns here. Firstly, big fan, that’s known. The other big knowns are locations/schedule and IM Pro payouts.
T100 events were Miami, Alcatraz, Vegas, Spain, London, Singapore, and Dubai. The cost to get to events isn’t crazy, you could get to all 7 for <$10k in flight costs. IMPro has 5 events listed in the US, you could theoretically just race those to reduce costs further.
The scoring and payout for IM Pro series is pretty top-heavy. It’s $200k to win but drops to $50k for 5th and $10k for 10th. Most of the races are also $50k prize money total. Just pulling Matt Hanson as 5th place seems like a reasonable look. By my math he won $28.5k in prize money plus $50k for 5th in the series. Not bad. Looks like the winner Barnaby came out ~$225k. Very good.
How far behind are they finishing? You can do the math from the standings page. 1second/point, the perfect score is 20,000 (1000 and 500 bonus for full/half WC races though). Barnaby won by finishing a total of 31.7min down over 5 races, 5th place Hanson was down 60min over 5 races. So to answer one question, you need to average ~4min off the win in 2 70.3’s and ~7.5min off the win in 3 IMs to win the series.
There’s also a ton of unknowns that you have a better idea of than the rest of us. T100 gives you a lot of screen time for being the slowest swimmer (sorry). That’s probably of value to them and could be turned into contract negotiations. The IM Pro route also allows you to due basically limitless races. Go to smaller pro events and grab $5k in a weekend. Won’t count towards Pro Series points but is extra money that’s available.
I don’t know what will leave you more tired Sam: if you only decide to do a single IM, the WC Nice, you have a huge advantage. No qualification IM, no Roth etc. This sounds indeed promising.
But you also have a huge disadvantage: IM Nice WC course must be checked and learnt before - you need to know the corners. And the IM Nice is on the longer spectrum of how long an IM lasts.
I edited my first post - I recommend that you sit down, try to draw these tables, be honest with yourself and fill them in.
