We’re going to have pretty mild winds on Saturday (for Houston), so if there was a year to do it would be this year. With a cross tail wind heading North she wouldn’t even have to pedal.
I think she will have a test plan , more so then pace the run based off splits, as she will want to collect data and effort , feel for kona.
This race right now is looking , no wetsuits , so that helps her, flat bike low winds, so less time pedaling and then the run is pretty flat and fast. She puts it together she breaks the all time bike record and runs well due to just a steady run pace based off training data and knowledge not guessing and racing from behind with risks.
If you guys really believe anyone would risk 180km ride with 2 full discs you’re mad. Coincidentally, 1 of them was turned with the brake to the camera so it didn’t show the cassette on the other side.
You are no fun!
Almost pure headwind/tailwind forecast.
Can I ask what you mean by (all) this in practice?
That Knibb won’t set out on the first lap (of 3) “based off splits”? What do you mean? She ran 3:05 in Kona.
“Just [run] a steady pace based off training data”
Well, fine, but are you saying that after Knibb has run 5km and we have that split we’ll know what her target time is? Do you think the gap and the rate Matthews/Sodaro is catching her will have no effect?
“not guessing and racing from behind with risks”
Knibb’s not going to be racing from behind, is she? So I think you’re saying the Sodaro/Matthews will be taking “risks”. If so since both have a palmares of best four marathons averaging <2:53 # they will be setting out at speeds based on experience tempered by recent training data, which minimising the “guessing” and mitigates the risk.
Sodaro = 2:49 (NZ), 2:52 and 2:53 (Kona), 2:54 (Nice)
Matthews = 2:49 (Tulsa), 2:49 (Texas), 2:53 (Nice), 2:54 (Vitorria)
" . . . flat bike, low winds, so less time pedaling"
To whose benefit is this?
Absolutely agree that, for Knibb, this race is an important ‘fact finding’ mission in prep for IMWC in October.
Get off the tracks because Foley and Jewett will both run through the field onto the podium. Giddy up.
3 Likes
It would be excellent to see Foley gaining some time back on the bike and then picking up a few of the slower runners, but he’s going to have his work cut out after a 100% effort on the bike. I fear the podium is way out of reach.
Jewett is maybe the best MD runner around (though Derron and Kleiser are contenders). It’s typical that on a debut full distance even the very best runners run sensibly/cautiously. Sodaro ran 3 dead in Hamburg in 22 and then a 2:52 in IMWC Kona 4 months later ftw. Though Philipp ran 2:52 on debut (Barca). Haug 3:04.
Whom of the top three do you think Jewett will catch to get #3?
I suggest getting an IMWC (Nice/Kona) slot will be a key target for both of them, needed if they are to feature in the IM Pro Series campaign: easier for Foley than Jewett.
@rrheisler has made some ‘Bold Predictions’ here.
1 Like
I’ve not seen any odds on IM other than Kona a few years ago, ill keep an eye out. (Think that may have been cos Alistair was racing)
Mens
- Iden
- Blum
- RVB
Women’s
- Matthews
- Sodaro
- Knibb
Daniel Baak, thoughts?
I guess one spark of light in London but otherwise no current form after injury(s) and.
Would be great to see him back to his best, and entertaining SM. IMWCQ well within his potential; would need to be top 8, probably.
I didn’t say practice but will have a strategy in pacing this time vs kona. And off those paces adjust for the next race and only get better. Her coach now is much better at outline the efforts to win and athletes focusing on self rather than others .
She raced from behind in kona so yes this time she will not be behind Lucy and set out for a better result . Very different like she has shown off the bike running with a large lead vs being behind and needing to more risks early.
A short time on the bike benefits everyone of course but also Ironman athletes with less experience and know how to handle the distance, Knibb vs her two top competitors this week helps her a bit more at this point . Mistakes in pace and hydration and nutrition don’t play as big a part. 4:20 bike vs a 5:20 bike.
“A short time on the bike benefits everyone of course but also Ironman athletes with less experience and know how to handle the distance, Knibb vs her two top competitors this week helps her a bit more at this point . Mistakes in pace and hydration and nutrition don’t play as big a part. 4:20 bike vs a 5:20 bike.”
What are you saying here? Conditions in TX are going to be the same if not worse than Kona. Pacing, hydration, and nutrition mistakes will destroy you on the back half of the marathon when it’s in the high 80’s with humidity above 70%.
Gotcha - thanks.
My perception of Knibb’s race in Kona (and borne out in interviews afterwards) was that she/they agreed to stick to a power limit (hence the reason she didn’t gain on LCB) so that her run from T2 into the unknown could be managed.
A win on Saturday would be great for either (NB not discounting Sodaro) but: Kona, Baby!
New coach appears to helped his mindset believing again. I like the guy, funny AF I think.
Says he is in good form. Rooting for him to have a good showing.
1 Like
Blu
Iden
Bækkegård
haha - WHAT ?? I raced both … on bad days … TX will never even be CLOSE to Kona, dude!
Not even close to kona temps and efforts .
Texas has the female bike course record 4:25 and the same athlete rode 4:46 in kona on amazing conditions in 2023.
With riders to work with in legal riding conditions.
Knibb rode kona that day 4:34 with the penalty and let’s face it maybe not her best race day effort ?
Knibb can ride Texas on a good day maybe sub 4:13 avg day 4:20.
Mathew best two rides 2023,2024 are at 4:40 an extra 20-25 min of biking time always makes running harder .
I am pretty sure lorang was not her coach in kona she was kind of getting info from people in boulder like tim o and Miranda? She mentioned that in her interviews back then. It was after kona 2023 she start being coaches by lorang. As she focused on Paris and t100 and future kona . If I am wrong please someone correct me ?
Those limits on the bike were a prediction with no data ( of an Ironman with a marathon) or evidence, as an athlete she has that info now and more to make better adjustments. And see if these adjustments are correct or incorrect and replan for kona .
The race will be fun to follow and I think she wants to make a statement.
I am going to make a prediction the Robert kallin will go so fast break the record
Break his own record 3:54 go under 3:50.
He will make the race the most interesting and play the biggest role in the pro men race tactics.
1 Like