Let me help with some facts
“Texas has the female bike course record 4:25”
The accepted bike record is McCauley’s 4:33. See Thorsten’s analysis of the 2018 race which may help make clear why the 4:25 is not ‘recognised’ (besides bike course being ?3 miles short). https://www.trirating.com/ironman-texas-2018-analyzing-results/
Forecast is pretty good: won’t feel proper warm on the bike before noon and wind <10kn SSE) Can Knibb ride 4:13? Well see, but there a fair few wiggly bits (x2) other than the double out and back on the toll road. If McCauley can ride 4:33 certainly Knibb would hope to ride sub 4:20.
You say: “Mathew (sic) best two rides 2023,2024 are at 4:40”
Matthews’ best two rides in 2023 and 2024 were 4:39 and 4:30, and last year here her 4:41 included a random 5 minute penalty stop, and the conditions were described as “about three minutes slower than typical for Texas; a lot of athletes mentioned strong headwinds on the [toll road]”
Philipp has recorded the fastest WPro Ironman with 8:18:20 (Hamburg 2022, 55, 4:31, 2:45)). A 55/4:20/2:59 (plus 4 forT1&T2) gives 8:18. So does 56/4:29/2:49
its something like 11 to 0 knibb vs kat. including ironman kona ,while kat can obivioulsy win… its a bit like hayden wilde vs alex yee and almost always yee wins. and unlike in taupo kat wont have a domestique that was on performace enhancments for the race
My observation has been that Knibb doesnt win her first attempt. But she learns like no other. Probably correlates to her education, where she data gathers and then goes to the lab. First 70.3, first 70.3 WC, first PTO/T100, first IM/First Kona, first USAT NC, first USA TT Nats, all second or third place. But all of those she won the next year or two.
Chelsea sounds sick to me, and most of the interview was making excuses for probably not having an A+ day. I still am holding my Blu pick to dominate, looks good for Rudy and Iden to contend for other podium spots.
And all those throwing shade on Taylor, I think you all just dont appreciate how good her first ever Ironman/Kona really was. 8;30+ in your first Kona and full ironman attempt, while blowing and walking, well is unprecedented. Even Chrissy had one ironman before her first win there. I think she will uncork a race for the ages here, and I also think Kat. will be pushing her the entire way too. Kind of how epic races have to play out, someone in the shadow keeping the front runner honest and full gas…
