Ironman Texas 2025 - Predictions and Race Day

Seventeen days to go to probably the second most competitive/strength of field full distance race of the year (below IMWC Nice/Kona) and the start lists have not been published.
However we do know many of the top athletes who’ll be racing, the majority as their first (of 3) full distance race in their IM Pro Series campaign.

Name IM Texas
Knibb x
Matthews x
Wilms x
Alberts x
Jewett x
Name IM Texas
Blummenfelt x
Iden x
Stornes x
Lange x
Von Berg x
Sanders x
Hoegenhaug x
Kanute x
Marquardt x

If I have some wrong, apologies. And of course there are many others: I’ve selected down to those I think will be in the top 10 in the IM Pro Series or who are otherwise highly ranked last year or in 2023.
Sodaro? Hanson?

According to https://www.instagram.com/tripollathlete Benito Lopez who just had a good race at Singapore where he finished 7th, he is also starting. Given this result and being from Spain, heat should not be a factor. He won Vitoria IM Pro Series race last year.

Wondering if Barnaby will try to qualify for Nice. For an Italian, it is next door and is not such a financial bet like Kona can be. He finished 8 there in 2023 so the race suits him.

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Start list out
https://www.instagram.com/p/DIRbqVnvhbG/

And in the higher numbers I spot Adam (was ranked #1 in the PTO Rankings) and Perterer (ex-SC and #2 in Cozumel 5 months ago) who’s just wowed everyone with her #2 in T100 Singapore. NB Jewett debut IM. No Wilms. Knibb’s second IM.


Also Stornes, Lindars and Hamilton in the higher numbers (64 on list)

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no Lionel

Looks like an exciting race. No Sanders. I guess he just wants to make sure he’s on fire for the last race in St George. If he can put together two perfect (or near perfect) 70.3 finishes, that sets up his season pretty well. Has he announced where he’s racing his long distance race(s) yet? I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in Cairns and Lake Placid.

I was under the impression Sanders was not planning to go for the IM Pro Series. As you know he is already IMWCQ. Personal reasons? Or IRONMAN admin fail?

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Another surprising name on the list is Lisa Perterer (Hope I spelled it correctly)

She loves the heat and hopefully she can cause some excitement at the front of the race!

We just going to gloss over the “personal reason” excuse of knibb who is now ready for IMTexas?

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I brought it up in the T100 thread. We all know the bogus ‘personal reasons’ excuse was just to prep for Texas.

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I think Knibb has shown herself to be an extremely anxious person about travelling and crowds. She’s often still wearing a mask at press conferences, and I think it was last year she mentioned she’d rather drive from Boulder to Oceanside than fly.

Is it reasonable that kind of person would look at the travel involved in getting to Singapore, a process which could very well screw up her real Ironman season debut with some major anxiety?

I don’t think she was just being totally opportunistic. I might be making excuses for her because I’m a fan. I think it’s fair to question her motives. But I think when we do so, we should look at her behavior which suggests more than just taking advantage of the T100.

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Her win at the '22 70.3 WC was essentially the moment it’s allowed her to be opportunistic. That win set the stage for her to do Kona '23 if she got the AQ USAT spot at Paris test event which truly started to shift her to becoming a “hybrid” distance athlete. Prior to that her non-draft career was basically a few 1 off non-draft events (even though non-draft has always been her “passion” since day 1 of this sport; itu was a means to the end imo).

I just hate the way she handled it. There was no reason to wait until two weeks before the race to pull out when she never intended to do it. I understand why she would want to skip Singapore and as the best triathlete in the world she’s got plenty of weight to throw around, but I wish she would have handled it differently.

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Maybe sick after Oceanside (and after that post race chat) and pulled himself from the Texas list promptly.

Thorsten has published his ‘seedings’ which are ‘interesting’.
https://www.trirating.com/ironman-texas-2025-april-26th-seedings/
Course records are 7:44 Lange and 8:32 Matthews.
Estimates (NB based on data):
Matthews Sodaro Knibb Slater Adam
Iden Lange Blummenfelt RvB Marquardt
Perterer there in #6 but not clear whether she will switch fire to focus on T100, still heading for Kona though (assumed) as she is already KQ. Edit: Her latest insta was from “Texas” so reasonable to assume she’s ‘there’ directly from Singapore.

Picks [edited Apr 13th due to Lange DNSing as reported by @SHT]

  1. von Berg
  2. Blummenfelt
  3. Wilkowiecki

Dark horse: Iden

and

  1. Sodaro
  2. Matthews
  3. Knibb

Dark horse: Perterer

I have a hard time betting against Matthews at the full distance. She’s just so consistent.

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A blummefelt vs lange run battle would be amazing!

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She is my pick for Kona as well, I know it’s early but her run in Taupo was too good!

Knibb will be hard to bet against in 2026, as long as she doesn’t go in too many directions

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Ya, I can see Knibb being smart about this and pacing it to qualify rather than win. She didn’t go for the W in Kona, so it suggests she’s willing to restrain herself.

Kat seems like she will relish the opportunity to beat Taylor, while Taylor likely will just focus on a good race and hitting numbers and letting the results fall where they may.

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Kat is now working with Alex Dowsett. I listened to him on a podcast this week and it will be interesting to see his impact on Kat. Interesting guy.

Taylor still has to prove she can handle the nutrition. Probably a good test.

Chelsea seems in a good head space.

I am looking forward to the women’s race.

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