Ironman Texas 2025 - Predictions and Race Day

Triathlon Forum
85

Thanks for posting that. And it sure looks like Iden may just be ready to pop a good one? I mean he was setting that running pace it looked like, and sounds like perhaps he was setting pace on the big ride the day before. We all know that Blu is is super shape, so unless he is sick or something else wrong, he should be the one setting the last race pace efforts on fire, shouldn’t he??

Other thing is that he always sounds like he is just getting over a cold or something, seems like I will have to chalk it up to it is just how he sounds before races I suppose…

86

.
Now that you mention it,it seems like he always sounds like he has a cold. I like Iden’s attitude also.The guy is just so mellow and apart from poking fun at Lionel never seems to get into the chest thumping bravado that so many top athletes display. He seems in a good place.

87

@ironmandad has written the ST front page preview: good read.

Likely Knibb will have the company of several in the water:
Zilinskas, Chura, Adam, maybe Clutterbuck, Iemmolo.
If Matthews and Sodaro are within two minutes at T1 I expect they’ll count that a win.
Knibb typically loses about 20 secs in T1, putting on socks (and aero guards).
She will just punch off the front with the other ‘swimmers’ briefly a comet tail in her wake. Adam is the strongest biker of those and has the strength, when caught, to stay with Matthews (and Sodaro) on the road.

Who knows how close Matthews (new coach Dowsett and on her improved Canyon) will be able to keep the gap?
If Sodaro’s bike has miraculously improved (with new coach Henderson and a Ventum to slice through the Toll Road headwind (forecast 10mph SSE)) she’ll be able to hold Matthews at 12+m, but for how long? I can’t see any working together going on. Sodaro will consider it a great ride if she stays close, and let Matthews ‘worry’ about the gap to Knibb. I suspect after they turn downwind at 40 miles Matthews will pull away. We’ll then see how strong Sodaro is mentally and physically, riding by herself, or maybe Adam will drop off and be company.

Jewett may be close to those two out of the water but even if with them leaving T2 will lose contact almost immediately in the Villages section with corners and a 180 (course).

image
image795×730 106 KB

I expect Knibb to rein in her uber-biking so that she can run better off the bike, so the gap may not be as large as it would be if the race finish was T2.
Let’s assume Knibb gets onto the run knowing she has circa 10 minutes on Matthews.
I think Knibb will back herself to run 3 hours dead and invite Matthews to run sub-2:50. We need to remember this is only Knibb’s second full distance and she will have her struggle in Kona from the Energy Lab onwards lurking in the back of her mind. But we’ve seen videos of her running with the guru-like van Lingen so maybe she’ll run better than in Taupo, and be confident of doing so for 26 miles.

So Knibb’s dilemma (10 min gap) is:

  • Do I run the first half conservatively and give Matthews ‘hope’, planning to negatively split?
  • Do I set out with an even pace for my target run time (3 hours, say (6:52 per mile)) and see?
  • Do I aim for a positive split, demoralise Matthews (and Sodaro) who see they are catching far too slowly, but risk serious leakage in the final lap round the lake? (and know Matthews has the rep for running the second half as strongly as the first)
  • When do I schedule an admin break and can I get it down to below 34 seconds?
  • To what extent is my strategy dependent on the gap?
    Knibb’s early time splits will give us a steer on the strategy adopted.

Matthews managed 2:49 here in 2023, chasing Stage Nielsen down; last year she nursed herself (calf tear 7 weeks earlier in T100 Miami) to the end/win in over 3 hours). And chasing Moench and Ryf she ran 2:49 at Tulsa, but failed to replicate those times at Nice last September.
Her approach to the bike has to be close to full on, to keep Knibb within range: there won’t be any easing off to save it for the run. Out of T2 I expect her to ‘just’ run at 2:50 marathon pace (slap on 4mpkm/6:30 per mile) and run an even split, hoping/expecting Knibb to falter.

If perchance Sodaro is with Matthews setting out round the lake both will be uncertain of who will end up ahead, with Sodaro marginally more confident.
I expect Perterer to bike past Jewett but then lose it on the run: it will be interesting to see how Jewett’s debut IM run holds up over 26 miles. But think back to Sodaro’s debut at Hamburg (2022) behind Philipp: she raced well (3:00 run) and 4 months later after a great swim and a 180km bike tow she ran a 2:52 to win in Kona. Jewett might aspire to do the same or better.

Finally for all three but particularly Knibb, need to keep in mind this is a step on the road to October: the supreme goal. All of the three have a shot at the win, and if achieved maybe they’ll be the last winner of the Ironman World Championships in Kona. An intriguing battle awaits athletes and supporters/spectators alike on Saturday.
My picks: Matthews, Knibb, Sodaro.

2 Likes
88

Thumbnail pure intimation tactics.

89

We don’t know what went on behind the scenes. She might have told T100 she wasn’t going but they left it late to announce it. Knibb publicity is free publicity!

Kat and Chelsea will validate just by finishing. How many Kona slots are available for Sunday?

Assuming the big 3 are at the pointy end (possibly with Perterer) there will be 4/5 qualifying.

1 Like
90

There are 5 slots for both men and women on offer. Doesn’t Kat need to qualify not just validate? I don’t remember her taking first in the WC.

91

She needs to qualify. Chelsea is the only one that needs to validate in the women. I think Gustav and Blu only need to validate

2 Likes
92

I do also like Trevor. Would have loved seeing if he could’ve shaken things up in Kona if he didn’t have that crash.

93

Yeah that crash really robbed Trevor of gathering invaluable data on how he can run off a crushing bike in those conditions.

94

I think people are really sleeping on Knibb’s run. Leading up to Kona in 2023, she didn’t have a proper IM build as she decided to do it after auto qualifying for Paris at the test event. Her longest run going in was a little over 18 miles. She’s been focused on Texas for a long time and I have no doubt she could throw down a 2:50 low 2:40 high if pushed. I think she’ll take it easy if there’s no need to push as Kona is the ultimate goal.

1 Like
95

As she has so often said, “We will see”:wink: I just hope that she has her GI issues under better control for a long hot day.

96

Matthews’ run is a known. Sodaro’s run is pretty much a known. Knibb’s run is an unknown. We’re working with odds here. Nobody is saying Taylor can’t crank out a 2:49.

97

You may have no doubt, Jack. I’m not saying she couldn’t run sub-2:50 if she went full on, but I seriously doubt it. If she thinks she could, then glass slipper the bike to generate a five minute gap and then invite Matthews/Sodaro to run sub-2:45. Ha ha!
However looking at her 21km and 18km times and reading them across, compared with Sodaro’s ones and Matthews ones. And then remember it’s only her second 140 mile race.
I suggest that, unlike you, Knibb doubts she can run sub-2:50 but will be confident of running sub-3.
So we will see in Knibb’s first few time splits what she’s decided to hit for the first 10km speed, whether it’s at 3:00 or 2:55 marathon pace. What we won’t know is whether she’s running easy or running hard, at that pace. Philipp and Matthews ran at sub 2:40 pace for the first third on the Promenade des Anglais: exhilaratingly competitive. We don’t know how either Matthews or Sodaro are running, though Matthews posted a 16:06 5km a month (?) ago, (presumably) in the middle of a solid block of training towards Texas.

1 Like
98

I thought you only had to validate the year after you were on the podium? My bad sorry.

99

Knibb will put 3 to 6 minutes on Katt in the swim, and 10 plus minutes on the bike. Patrick Lange would have to work to make up that kind of deficit.

100

Ironman have changed it to just the winner gets an AQ but doesn’t ‘even’ have to validate (tho’ Philipp will at Hamburg). The 70.3WC doesn’t get an AQ either, now so Knibb and Geens have to qualify same as others. Legacy IMWCs (Haug, Sodaro, LCB, Iden, KB, Laidlow) have to validate their AQ.

1 Like
101

she does not have to run 2.49 given that you would be extremely surprised, if she does not have a 7 min lead of the bike.
ie I would be surprised if she does not win given that she has missed Singapore and seems to have really prepared for this. and I guess is not seen to change saddle positions the week before the race like some pros do.

102

I think all the women have been sacrificing some of their strengths to work on weaknesses, which is the Bike thanks to Knibb destroying everyone on the bike last year. I would think we will see better bike time from Kat, Chelsea and others, but can they still run off harder bike efforts? Other unknowns are Knibbs running. I would think it’s better this year. I’m excited to watch.

103

I think it’s known that Taylor can run a 3:05 off little marathon specific training in one of the hardest marathon conditions on the planet after riding the second fastest bike leg in a world championship caliber field.

She also lost about 50 seconds to Sodaro and Haug in T1.

So we can predict she’ll lose upwards of a minute in T1, and will ride the first or second fastest bike split in the race, and she’ll run at least a 3:05 in Texas. I think it’s pretty much certain she’ll need to hit the toilet at some point on the run too. There’s no reason to assume that issue suddenly gets worked out when she’s known about it for years and still hasn’t solved it.

I think 3:00 is pretty likely. Will she push and go harder and risk overheating? I’d assume not until the second half unless something like a flat or penalty happens and she has to go for it.

If I’m Taylor, I’d set out at 3:05 pace and dare them to come get me, then have a race at the end. Either way she checks the Kona box, makes it an exciting show and she can test what she’s capable of if someone gets close. But, it’s easier said than done, and just because you start slow doesn’t mean you won’t keep fading… and she could just end up grinding down even slower. So I see the temptation to set out faster pace and try to hold on.

2 Likes
104

Mark Matthews showing 2 disc wheels and saying Kat will ride Wout van Aert style with double discs. Love his sense of humor. :joy:

2 Likes