There are several things that changed after her WC win. And then when we tested some of her newer “improvements” against her winning formula, guess which prevailed ? examples, tire pressure and helmets.
I think Knibb will need a lead of at least 10 mins out of T2 to win!
She is on the right trajectory with her running, she is definitely a better runner than what she was in 2024. I would say give her another 12 months and she will be unbeatable for a while
I was going to make fun of these predictions (although my “money” is on Sodaro & Kat), but then I remembered the popular capital markets expression gap & crap
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Knibb has won ever race with a big bike lead and then bleeds time on the run , yes .
But we saw in the Olympics she is a very very good runner when she doesn’t have to push the bike effort so hard .
She racers to win not have a great run . And if she is over biking and still running that split imagine her split if she didn’t bike so aggressively, didn’t have bathroom stops and had to push the pace to reach the front .
On paper yes the others have a faster Ironman marathon result but who has all the wins over the last 2 years while never being passed on the run course. ( with the kona exception)
When she has 100% prepared.
e.g. in Paris she ran the same split as potter, Beaugrand, spivey in the mix. in the 10 km was beat by while by Derron, Spivey, Waugh, but we can see the bike draft removed in t100 she can use that skill to slow the good runners and create a safety gap. Yet her run does al of a sudden disappear. Waugh vs knibb will be a great race to see how this plays out.
I would love to see Knibb win next weekend and Kona but it’s a lot more competitive these days, you can’t show up like Wellington did a decade ago and win everything in sight
Just hope she keeps her 2025 schedule simple!
How about:
| Date | Type | Event | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26-Apr | IM | IRONMAN Texas | The Woodlands, Texas, USA |
| 21-May | TT | National ITT | Charleston, USA (edit add) |
| 31-May | T100 | T100 San Francisco | USA |
| 15-Jun | T100 | T100 Vancouver | Canada |
| 09-Aug | T100 | T100 London | GBR |
| 30-Aug | T100 | T100 Frejus | FRA |
| 11-Oct | IM | IRONMAN WC (WPro) | Kona, Hawai`i, USA |
| 08-Nov | 70.3 | IRONMAN 70.3 WC | Marbella, Spain |
| 12-Dec | T100 | T100 GF | Qatar |
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It’s probably the least she could do if she is going to fulfil her T100 contract. Aug involves some heavy travel unless she stays in Europe for the entire month.
If you compare this to LP’s early schedule, she basically doesn’t leave Germany to race and I think Chelsea isn’t leaving the US as well!
Is Sam Long doing Texas? He alludes to an Ironman in his latest video, saying he should do one and wanted to make a big announcement but has said enough.
Edit to add that I bet it’s IM Placid since he was training with Lionel recently.
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Doubt so. Start list is out and very rarely do they add someone randomly
Long doing LP will give the race some extra buzz
Knibb cannot reasonably plan to race T100 Valencia in September before Kona nor T100 LLV in October (will it happen??) so soon after Kona.
(As an aside, I expect athletes have already been told that they cannot rely on LLV happening, that the number scoring regular season will not be reduced, and to take that into account when they plan their T100 racing schedule. However I note that there’s now an actual date showing (25/26th October) but no entry path for amateurs as yet.)
One assumes she will prioritise defending her 70.3WC crown at Marbella (8th November) so that means T100 Dubai is out too (though could offer a emergency option).
When Knibb decided not to race Singapore, T100 Frejus was scheduled for end June: a simple trip to France and another easy trip to London in August.
That would wrap her 4 races which are needed as 4 scores count on the ‘Race to Qatar’.
The date change of Frejus from late June to late August (which Knibb will have known about well ahead of time (assumed)) does screw things up for August (but still 6 weeks before Kona). Conversely it offers a block of weeks (mid June to mid August) for training and bike races, even some races where she has to ride close to others! After IM Texas her next race date is Charleston on 21st May (33.4km).
Apart from the contract obligation to ride 4+GF (which you gently imply she might disregard) Knibb has to get four scores on the board or she will (high risk even with 3 wins) not retain her World LD Tour Championship ($$ and rep), even with a win in Qatar. The T100 schedule above is, as you say, “the least she could do” (if my assessment of the other competing priorities is valid).
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‘Triathlon Insights’ take in a quick reel:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DItz9CDNUpy/
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Great summary of the upcoming race. It’s going to be tough to televise coverage of all the moves on both male and female side. I’ll be at our kids swim meet all day, lol. Maybe i can hack into the swim meet screen and play the race?
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Pro Tri News pod extended preview (12 minutes in):
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I like Rudy for this one. He feels due.
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According to the IM (updated) starting list Leiferman is not starting, Weaver bib 34 and Lange are so far the only ones not starting
Too bad Lange is not starting otherwise the 5 Pro winners from last year full IM would have been at the start: Texas;Lange, Cains:Burton, Vitoria:Benito Lopez, Frankfurt:Blum and LP:Foley.
In the women’s field Slater is also not starting.
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Also I spot that Thoes has pulled out (was F13) and Perterer (was F28) has been slipped in as F13. As you say Slater (was F4) is a DNS.
So that’s 60 men and 26 women.
Jewett and Stornes are the two notable debutant(e)s (well Stornes has yet to finish an IM).
‘TriathlonInsights’ reel on the men:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DIwTxNhNmU9/
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I know it’s racing and anything can happen, but I’ll be stunned if Blu doesn’t win going away. If Foley can be less than 5 minutes down after the swim it could get interesting.
Just as long as he doesn’t hit any potholes…