What pace should I run my marathon?

Running
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I’m running LA marathon on March 8. For context, I’m a 37 yr old man, 6’2”, 215 lbs (too fat I know). Once upon a time I ran a bunch as a kid and could run an 18 min 5k. I’m now out of shape and in the process of getting back into shape. I’ve been training since September and lately following the Hal Higdon intermediate training plan as much as my schedule allows me to.

My question is - how fast should I plan to run the marathon in 5-6 weeks? Should I plan to run at a set pace or just hold a particular zone? Apple asserts that my zone 3 is 143-155 HR. In my head, I had been planning to run at about a 10 min mile pace, but given some recent run performances, I’m wondering if I should up the juice a bit.

In support of this question, I’m adding some context below for a few different runs I’ve recently done. Since they only let me add one image, I’ll use my recent half marathon strava splits. Given this, I’d like to shoot for a 4 hr marathon time, but I’m thinking that perhaps a 4.5 hr time is more realistic. I really don’t know.

First run - an eight mile run where I paced my miles at about 8:45 min/mile. HR was an average of 154 BPM with elevation gain at about 500 ft.

Second run - a ~21 mile run that I intentionally ran in zone 2 (135 HR average or so) –something the good folks over on reddit gave me a lot of grief for in a recent thread. I paced that run at 11:45 min miles because I had thought my long slow runs were supposed to stay in zone 2 (this is what Hal Higdon says and I’m using the man’s intermediate plan to train anyway). I felt seriously shitty at the end of this 4 hour monstrosity of a slow run, even while my heart rate stayed nice and low. I’m fueling plenty (two gels an hour) and am seriously debating if I should just run these long runs faster to get them over with quicker – hence my pace question.

Third run - my recent half marathon time from the Rose Bowl Half Marathon. I ran it in 1:53, average pace 8:34 min/mile, and average HR of 163 BPM. It’s a hillier race with 642 ft of elevation gain. I felt good basically throughout this race, but I did effectively max out what I had available in the last mile , which I finished at a 7:40 pace (with the help of a nice downhill behind me).

Fourth run - A foolish little moment I had on a recent 6.7 mile run, wherein I decided to mess around at mile 3 and see what I could bring to the table in terms of a single mile pace. I ran a 6:48 min mile (after three miles warming up at around a 10:15 min mile average). This made my HR hit 172 for that mile, and topped out at 182 as measured by my apple ultra watch. IDK if that means my max HR is 182.

run 3
run 31290×2796 203 KB

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The best pace is a suicide pace, and it’ll probably be as good a day as any to die..

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Based on the 1:53 half, assuming your training has been solid, a 4:00 is very reasonable.

I’m personally not a fan of trying to negative split a marathon, so I would go out at 4:00 pace, speed up at mile 16-18 if you’re still feeling good and at worst you slow down a bit in the last 1/3 if it was a bit too ambitious. Make sure you’re eating and drinking plenty throughout the day.

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If you’ll forgive my Pre-mature response earlier..

This is going to be a major determining factor. OP says “following as best as my schedule allows”. What does that mean? How many runs per week, missing or hitting long runs and key workouts from the plan?

The lower the percentage of compliance - especially long runs - the more you’re going to break down as the miles pile up, and the longer it’s gonna be before you cross the finish line.

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Sure that’s a very reasonable point. My issue is not missing long runs, I’ve not done that. But some weeknight runs have fallen by the wayside due to work and kids.

But numbers are always better, so here’s what I can say re recent training. In the last 3 months, I’ve had 7 weeks between 30-40 miles, 4 weeks between 20-30 miles, and one week (Christmas) where I only got in 12 miles (my long run). This last month has been ramping, and I’ve run 140 miles in the last 30 days. I’ve done two 20 mile long runs in the last month, and will do two more in the next four weeks. I typically will run 4-5x a week, and have done so since October, although again, December was something of a mess and I had a few 3x weeks.

My intention is to avoid missing any runs in this last four week block leading up to my taper.

So not perfect but not terrible either I guess!

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Have you done a max heart test to determine your maximum heart rate? If not, consider anything your watch tells you about your training zones as junk information. I would even go so far as to apply that rule to any training metrics whose calculations you aren’t able to retrace yourself.

But don’t beat yourself up over it. It is a common mistake, because modern smartwatches are more than happy to volunteer up all kind of ‘information’ even if they should know that they don’t have the necessary data to determine them. Using a ‘theoretical maximum heart rate’ based on age instead of your personal maximum heart rate established through testing is just one of the most common and egregious examples of that.

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I haven’t done a real “test,” but I did recently run an all out mile, and my highest HR as measured by the AWU during that effort was 182. That said, I think I could get it a bit higher in a flat out sprint scenario. Perhaps a track day running 200m repeats. As a kid those were always the ones that would make me puke lol.

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Ok, it sounds like you’ve got some decent mileage base in - if you’re doing 20mi long runs, why not try one in the next week or two that’s a bit spicier? You’ll have a decent amount of time to recover afterwards and can use that - and what you feel like in the last couple of miles - to figure out what pace seems achievable.

Then again I just wander around in the woods eating gummy worms and my goal pace = comfortably make cut-off, so wtf do I know?

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I think that’s good advice. I have another next weekend. I’ll go out at 9:30 min/mile and see if and when I blow up :slight_smile:

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The only all out race effort I see here is your 1:53 half marathon. It doesn’t matter what pace you can hold for 21 miles on a training run or other training runs. I have seen a lot of people go out and nail a 21 miles run at a comfortable pace (i.e. 10:00 min/mi) only to finished their marathon at a slower pace than what they did in their training (i.e. 12:00-13:00 min/mi) because they trained at too fast a pace. The all-out effort is the only metric that counts for your current speed/fitness/lactate threshold pace/heartrate zones.

If you are in marathon shape you should be able to finish a marathon in twice your half marathon time plus 10 minutes. That puts you at a 3:56. You should go for the sub 4:00 if you have sufficient training volume to finish the full 26.2 without fading.

As for pacing strategy the best plan is always even splits. If you don’t have a flat course you may need to adjust that to even effort, but don’t speed up at mile 16-18. You should feel really good at miles 16-18 and you will feel like you can go faster, but a marathon takes patients. Don’t speed up until at least mile 20 (and possibly 21-22) . If you pace things well you won’t hit the wall until mile 20-23, but if you go out too fast you bring that on earlier (i.e. miles 18-20). If you are feeling really good at mile 20 and try to speed up you will probably just been maintaining even pace (or a slightly slower pace) because by that point you will be fatigued and will have to work harder to go the same pace (or slightly slower).

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Come on ST, are we going to let him get away with only 2 gels per hour?

Seriously though, you were out for 4 hours running at a solid effort and took in ~200g of carbs, my bet is you were underfueled and thus felt like “shit’; I would consider trying to get more in during your next few long runs and see how you feel, even 1 more gel/hr could help push that bonk out enough to finish strong and not feel like you got ran over (as badly).

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Today I learned I need more gels!

I have another 20 miler this weekend and will endeavor to go 3 gels/hour. I’m also gonna shoot for a quicker pace of 10 min miles (11.5 min miles became very boring). I also have a new pair of mega blasts arriving that should make things a bit more exciting than my hokas with over 500 miles on them.

So I’ll be done in under 3.5 hours, have eaten more gels, and have much bouncier shoes on. We shall see how all these little things change the feel of the run. Obv none of them relate to fitness but just optimizing where possible!

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Meh, I’ve run for multiple days on ~200cal per hour, but I do know high carb is all the rage these days (and I’m less than 3/4 of OP’s stated weight)

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With a 1:53 half and a couple 20 milers in the bank, sub 4 looks realistic, but I’d still treat the first 18 - 20 miles like a patience game and aim for even effort instead of chasing watch zones. If you still feel smooth at mile 20, that’s the time to press go out too hot and LA will collect the bill.

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What’s driving that? Bro Science?

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I mean former STer DaveRoche has definitely had some success with very high carb ultrarunning on the world stage and is much more science- than vibes-based - if anything is bro science it’s my “this is approx 100cal of gummy candy, I’ll munch on this every 30mins or whenever I remember” approach

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How many Sour Patch Kids would that be? LOL

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Eleven.

Five fuzzy peaches.

Six sour cherry blasters.

Four gummy worms.

Twelve gummy bears.

Two gluten free Oreos.

One gluten-free stroopwafel is 120cal.

Gels are expensive and I’m cheap af

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Factcheck 3:56. Set off at 4:00 pace (9:10mpm) and see how you feel at half way: if strong, accelerate to under 9s (reflects others’ advice ^^).
“I haven’t done a real “test,” but I did recently run an all out mile, and my highest HR as measured by the AWU during that effort was 182.”
As an aside, a mile starting steady and then with increasing pressure and a sprint ftw round the top bend will be an excellent approx of HRmax. So from your description - maybe 185.
Good luck in a fortnight.

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Factcheck 3:56. Set off at 4:00 pace (9:10mpm) and see how you feel at half way: if strong, accelerate to under 9s (reflects others’ advice ^^).
“I haven’t done a real “test,” but I did recently run an all out mile, and my highest HR as measured by the AWU during that effort was 182.”
As an aside, a mile starting steady and then with increasing pressure and a sprint ftw round the top bend will be an excellent approx of HRmax. So from your description - maybe 185.
Good luck in a fortnight.

This is kind of my plan. LA starts with a big downhill which I’ll use to kind of warm up and shake off jitters. Holding 9:00 downhill will probably have my HR in the 130s or 140s if experience is a guide.Then you hit the biggest hill of the day miles 3-5 and I’m planning to simply make it up at a decent pace. I run up a mile long hill at the end of my runs to get home, and usually 9:45 min miles up the hill have me around 150 HR. I think I’ll just feel it out, but I’m not afraid to hold a slower pace up a hill to save my muscles. Then, from miles 5-20ish, you have rolling small up and downhills, which seems like ideal to try and just hold something close to 9:10 and see how it feels. If I’m feeling fresh and strong, I can speed up as I get closer to 20 mile mark. Doing that should put me in striking distance of 4 hours and, even if I slow way down in the last 10k, I will be at a respectable time for a first marathon.

Of course, the last 6 miles is mildly uphill and ends on an upslope which is gonna be spicy no matter what. I really may just trudge over the finish line but that’ll be ok.

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