I think it will be close. Jan and Lance both have a lot on the line, Jan needs to make 2mins on Rasmussen to get on podium and Lance will want to win 1 stage and his last TT.
Question is> Can Jan surpass Basso in the TT, needs to make up 3 minutes? I think Jan is in better form that he was in at beginning of race, could be possible.
If this year is equal to last years Jan has a slim chance to catch Basso, here are last years final TT results.
1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 1.06.49 (49.39 km/h)
2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.01
3 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.27
4 Floyd Landis (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 2.25
5 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC 2.48
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 2.50
I think Ullrich will win. It will be a dogfight between he and Lance and go down as one of the more memorable tour stages ever - to make up for how boring the rest of this tour has been.
LA and JA will finish about 60 seconds clear of 3rd place (Basso), but JA will take LA by 2-3 seconds.
3 seconds? 55km TT I’m sure the time gaps will be larger. The 3 big names Lance, Ivan and Ullrich will all be there in the first 3 spots or very close. First 10 spots, George, Bobby, Cadel, Poppy, Vino, Cancellara, Gonzalles and Floyd are names to look for.
I think Lance has been having a relatively relaxing tour so far, especially the last couple of stages. And this is highly unlikely to be just pure coincidence. Tomorrow there’s no risk in getting involved in a bunch accident and it’s his last time …very, very, last, last time … he’s not going to gun it on the Champs when things go crazy and risk the final and only Maillot Jaune that really counts. … and you know Lance …you think he will be satisfied with just a steady win with no stage wins or will he be burning to put in a performance to stamp his mark deep into the anals of the TdF as a parting gesture? Yeah I reckon he would like to put in the kind of performance that will make his fans teary eyed and will stick a middle finger to the faces of his detractors. The kind of performance that speaks for itself and by it’s magnitude will make any rubbish spoken about his performance capabilities sound just plain ridiculous forevermore. The man is almost a machine with a truly iron will, (bar a puncture or something else as unexpectedly bad), only he CAN and WILL. So I reckon we’re looking at minutes, not seconds!
Mark my words …MINUTES!
And Chicken reckons he’s going to soar like an eagle cuz for the first time he’s motivated in a TT. And so he should be cuz the final podium is at stake. But I reckon he’s no champion in this league. Good as he is, try as he may, he’s still a loud mouth little fellar and he’ll not only get hammerred by Jan but will likely slip back past 4th in the GC. Imagine claiming that he’s the man to beat Lance. There should be a law against masturbating in public like that.
Lance starts out last (unless I am mistaken) and, as a result, he will have JU and others as a carrot. This has got to be a huge advantage. Also, you know he is going to want that stage win.
And don’t forget, Lance has yet to win a solo stage at this year’s TdF. It’ll be his last chance for a stage win and I don’t think he wants to win the tour without one.
Not only does Lance not want to leave the Tour without a stage win, I’m pretty sure he would want to leave the Tour stamping his mark and going out with a big bang!
Unless of course Tyler Hamilton, David Millar, Boardman or Czech rider Ondrej Sosenka beats his time and spoils the party.
It’s not a matter of IF Lance will win, but by how much.
Other than TT specialist Dave Z, Lance spanked the field in the opening TT. And that was with pulling out of his pedal too (or else he mighta beaten DZ too)
Since then, I’d be willing to bet that, other than mebbe Basso, any other decent TTer has had to work a lot harder in the mtn stages than Lance did. So, he probably has more reserves left too.
But even if he didn’t, I don’t think that anything short of a crash or major mechanical will keep him from this TT stage victory. I think a strong and motivated Jan will easily make up the deficit on Ras, and some of it on Basso, but not enough to overtake him.
Yeah, I know I’m not going real far out on a limb here, but it is what it is. This one is all over but the crying.
The only interesting things will be to see if Basso holds off Jan overall, and if anybody else can leapfrog Ras and bump him down even further on the GC standings. I think yes, and yes for both of those.