The Likely Scenarios for the IM Pro Series Finale

[admin]

Originally published at: The Likely Scenarios for the IM Pro Series Finale - Slowtwitch News

After a full season of racing across multiple continents, it all comes down to a single race to determine the inaugural IRONMAN Pro Series Champion: the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships.

This weekend will not only crown single-race champions, but these results will dictate the final standings of the $1.7 million, 20 race long series. More than three-quarters of that prize purse will go to the top 10 men and women in the final standings. In the parlance of the series: every second matters this weekend.

Let’s take a look at who has a lot to play for this weekend: whether it be contending for the overall win, or for a piece of that critical $1.3 million distributed to the top 10 in the Pro Series standings.

The Women: Kat Matthews Seeks to Avoid the Commentator’s Curse

Although Jackie Hering has had a stranglehold on the lead of the Pro Series, it is really Kat Matthews in the driver’s seat as we enter the final race of the campaign. Matthews sits a mere 257 points behind Hering with a race in-hand; any result this weekend will add the full value to her point total. Hering, meanwhile, can only improve by a maximum of 703 points; a top result will replace her third place and its 2,297 points awarded at St. George. And that even assumes Hering wins.

Still, Matthews does need to first get to the starting line healthy. And then she needs to avoid trouble during the race — whether of her own design or otherwise — to make it across the finish line. But any reasonable finish should see Matthews take the inaugural title.

In the case that something were to happen to Matthews, it’s then Lotte Wilms who has the only realistic shot of dethroning Hering atop the season long points standings. Wilms, like Matthews, has only four scores this season, and can take the full points haul available to her in Taupō. But she sits a full 2,390 points behind Hering. It’d take a disaster from both Hering and Matthews, plus a top performance from Wilms, for Wilms to take the title.

That is your most realistic top three athletes by the end of the weekend. In theory, most of the top eight women are locked in, with some order of Hering, Matthews, Wilms, Maja Stage Nielsen, Danielle Lewis, Daniela Bleymehl, Hannah Berry, and Els Visser all at or near the somewhat magical 15,000 point mark. Ninth place Alice Alberts, however, is more than 1,400 points back of Visser in 8th, and has not raced 70.3 well this season, with a series best finish of 6th. Penny Slater, not racing this weekend, will stay locked at 12,997 points.

Potentially moving forward? Giorgia Priarone has the most points of those racing this weekend outside the top 10. She sits over 2,000 points behind 10th place and already has a full scorecard; even winning here would not see her crack the top 10. And it’s the same story with athletes further down with open scoring slots; Rebecca Clarke and Ellie Salthouse are too far arrears even in victory.

The Men: Will Barnaby Hold On?

Gregory Barnaby, in an astute move, decided to race 70.3 Western Australia. By claiming victory, he nabbed a full 2,500 points score and the series lead from IRONMAN World Champion Patrick Lange. Lange, in second place in the standings today, will not race in Taupō. He’s also not likely to hold onto second place, with Kristian Hogenhaug just 151 points behind. A decent performance this weekend from Hogenhaug would be enough to boost his points total higher than Lange. That being said, it looks increasingly likely that this is your podium. 770 points separates Lange in second from Matt Hanson in fourth, and Hanson has never been in the top 10 at 70.3 Worlds.

In terms of the Barnaby vs Hogenhaug battle, the margin is just under 600 points between the two of them. Hogenhaug has the edge in potential score improvement; with a win, he’d net an 819 point improvement in his total score. But Barnaby has been remarkably consistent at 70.3 this year, earning 4,977 points out of a possible 5,000 in his two races. Hogenhaug would need to win *and* have Barnaby be more than 6.5 minutes back to claim victory.

The potential wildcard to move into a podium finish is Matthew Marquardt. Marquardt, currently in 8th place with 16,582 points, is the highest placed athlete who has scored in four events and is racing this weekend (Lange would be the other). He needs 2,041 points to overtake Lange in the standings. In order to do that, he needs to finish within 16 minutes of whoever wins this weekend. On paper, that should be easy enough. But Marquardt is a full-distance specialist, and with this being just his third high-profile middle distance race of his career (the others the 2023 PTO US Open and this year’s Tremblant 70.3), it may not be as simple a task as it is written here.

In the battle to make it into the top 10, it is Braden Currie who has a leg up on the competition, with a full score potentially in hand over the likes of Mathias Petersen, Jonas Hoffman, and Paul Schuster. A win would vault him to a net 7th overall in the Pro Series. Nick Thompson had a poor showing at Western Australia, finishing 15th. He’d need to finish within three minutes of the winner here to wind up cracking the top 10.

What’s at Stake

As a reminder, there’s a full $1.7 million on the line this weekend in Pro Series money, with $1.3 million of that going to the top 10 athletes. Here’s how that money breaks down:

Place	Prize Money
First	$200,000
Second	$130,000
Third	$85,000
Fourth	$70,000
Fifth	$50,000
Sixth	$40,000
Seventh	$30,000
Eighth	$20,000
Ninth	$15,000
Tenth	$10,000
Places 11-50	$5,000 each

The racing kicks off with the women’s 70.3 World Championships on December 14th (local time; it’s airing on the 13th in the United States), followed by the men’s race the following day.

[Nameofuser]

Does anyone care for the pro series?

[Ajax_Bay]

@admin

Gregory Barnaby. . . nabbed a full 2,500 points score and the series lead from IRONMAN World Champion Patrick Lange. Lange, in second place in the standings today, will not race in Taupō. He’s also not likely to hold onto second place, with Kristian Hogenhaug just 151 points behind. A decent performance this weekend from Hogenhaug would be enough to boost his points total higher than Lange. That being said, it looks increasingly likely that this is your podium.
.
The potential wildcard to move into a podium finish is Matthew Marquardt. Marquardt, currently in 8th place with 16,582 points, is the highest placed athlete who has scored in four events and is racing this weekend (Lange would be the other). He needs 2,041 points to overtake Lange in the standings. In order to do that, he needs to finish within 16 minutes of whoever wins this weekend. On paper, that should be easy enough. But Marquardt is a full-distance specialist, and with this being just his third high-profile middle distance race of his career (the others the 2023 PTO US Open and this year’s Tremblant 70.3), it may not be as simple a task as it is written here.

With all due respect, this fails to paint the “likely scenario” for the men.
“it looks increasingly likely that this [Barnaby, Lange, Hoehenhaug] is your podium.” Nope: this is very unlikely and has been ever since Lange decided not to race Busso (he couldn’t race here as is not qualified to).

Marquardt is not a “potential wildcard”: he is one of the two protagonists for the win. He and Barnaby are effectively starting on Sunday on exactly the same number of points. Whoever beats the other will win the IM Pro Series, with the proviso that if Marquardt is ahead but finishes more than 8:42 behind the winner then Barnaby will win as he already has a 2477 in his back pocket.

Hoegenhaug has a chance of the win but on form this is very unlikely.
“A decent performance this weekend from Hogenhaug would be enough to [beat] Lange.” Hoegenhaug has to finish within 11:08 of the winner to go ahead of Lange and he should be able to achieve that, just.

[sciguy]

For me it’s about 98% this actual race and 2% for the whole series.

[Ajax_Bay]

IM Pro Series offers $200k and $130k to #1 and #2. See Ryan’s article for more.
Race day prize structure OTOH:

Position	Prize
1st	$75,000
2nd	$45,000
3rd	$30,000
4th	$19,000
5th	$15,000
6th	$12,000
7th	$10,000
8th	$8,000
9th	$7,500
10th	$7,000

[Ajax_Bay]

@Nameofuser

Does anyone care for the pro series?

Well, the IM Pro Series 2024 thread has 18k views (go and enjoy!) and the ST Editorial Team have written about it ?4 times, more than any other triathlon series or tour.

IM Pro Series 2024

Standings seem to be clearer after Placid. It looks like 2 to 4 athletes are clear favorites to win the Series with 2 main contenders, with 2 other lesser favorites 1- Foley, he won 9 945 out of 10 000 (max possible pts) and would ‘only’ need 4 460 points, so within 9’ of the winner to take the lead before Kona- 2- Marquardt, 11 856 out of 12 500, no bad results and in Kona he should benefit from being with strong swim-bikers especially Laidlow to try to gap other contenders like Foley 3 -Mi…

[rrheisler]

I appreciate your enthusiasm. That said, I disagree with some of your points.

1.) Just like there is under the IMWC ruleset, there exists provisions in the IM rulebook to have allowed Lange to wind up racing Taupo. Same one that they should have to allow Laidlow to start in Kona this year, versus the backwards rationale they utilized to get there.

2.) Marquardt is a wildcard. He’s raced two middle distance races in his professional career. He is, to borrow the Rumsfeld-ism, the definition of an unknown unknown. As you note, at 2,477 points behind, winning alone doesn’t do it. And that’s still a moving target, as Barnaby finishing anywhere within 8:20 of the winner improves his total points haul.

And this still assumes Marquardt performs well at a shorter distance event, when yes, he has a solid 70.3 this year, but he also had his doors blown off in the US Open last year. That’s why he’s a wildcard. He’s not likely to have a middling performance. It’s all or nothing.

[dfru]

@rrheisler

2.) Marquardt is a wildcard. He’s raced two middle distance races in his professional career. He is, to borrow the Rumsfeld-ism, the definition of an unknown unknown. As you note, at 2,477 points behind, winning alone doesn’t do it. And that’s still a moving target, as Barnaby finishing anywhere within 8:20 of the winner improves his total points haul.

MM is EXACTLY 2477 behind Barnaby. So…if they finish closer than 8:42 back - then the first one across the line wins the series. Pretty sure that is correct. Hogenhaug is probably out of the series I would think. It will be fascinating to see how MM goes. Yo are right about the unknown unknown.

[monty]

@rrheisler

2.) Marquardt is a wildcard. He’s raced two middle distance races in his professional career. He is, to borrow the Rumsfeld-ism, the definition of an unknown unknown. As you note, at 2,477 points behind, winning alone doesn’t do it.

You still don’t get it, and I said this after your first critique of the series when you called Lange a shoe in for the win. Matthew only has to beat Barnaby to win the series(and be within 8;42 of the winner). He is your co favorite here for gold or silver, and Lange likely to be 4th at best, possibly 3rd.

You never really got the math right here Ryan, and it was Lange’s choice not to race, and not Ironman’s. Shooters anyone?? (-;

[dfru]

I think 8:42 (2477 pts) but within that margin. I could be wrong though. Not as much as Ryan hahahaha

ETA even so wouldn’t Patrick be exempt for 2025 with a 2024 win? If that is in fact the case? I’m not sure about this.

Second edit. I don’t actually see anywhere where there is a reverse exemption - IM champ to 70.3. Seems weird but…am I wrong?

[rrheisler]

The question on Lange was about qualification. As mentioned, had Lange wanted to race, pretty sure IM would have given out the wild card.

Marquardt is still an unknown quantity at this distance. Y’all acting like it’s obvious he’ll win. That usually results in disastrous outcomes.

We’ll preview the race itself later in the week. But if I’m backing a horse, it’s the one that’s proven himself over this distance multiple times.

[dfru]

I mean…I’ve questioned MM over and over in speculation - and think Barnaby is the overhwhelming favorite. But who has proven themselves over and over at the distance in your mind?

[Ajax_Bay]

@rrheisler

" Marquardt is a wildcard. "
Marquardt is still an unknown quantity at this distance. Y’all acting like it’s obvious he’ll win. That usually results in disastrous outcomes.

We’ll preview the race itself later in the week. But if I’m backing a horse, it’s the one that’s proven himself over this distance multiple times.

Because Marquardt has chosen to race 5 events with this one as his last (same as Matthews, Wilms and Berry, note) merely means he is behind the rest in the standings. But as noted back in July, he has been an effective front runner in the IM Pro Series. Calling Marquardt a wildcard is like ignoring an athlete like, say, Lange or Haug 3/4 way through a 180km bike, or saying they are a ‘wildcard’.

When Barnaby and Marquardt toe the line on Sunday, it’s a straight head-to-head. What’ll be interesting, in this context, is that Marquardt will swim and tuck into the main lead pack on the bike and Barnaby will try to hang on, overbike and then try to catch Marquardt on the run.

“Y’all acting like it’s obvious he’ll win.” Where do you get that from? I think both of them will be within the 8:42 and that Barnaby is likely to beat Marquardt, ftw.
But I can see this going to the wire, with the 8:42 threshold worth keeping an eye on, for the arithmetically inclined. Is Wilde or Bergere going to run 6 minutes into both Barnaby and Marquardt? [No] At 70.3MT Marquardt was +2 from Sanders on the run. Barnaby has averaged 1:12:20 in his 70.3 runs in the last two seasons.

[timbasile]

@rrheisler

Marquardt is a wildcard. He’s raced two middle distance races in his professional career. He is, to borrow the Rumsfeld-ism, the definition of an unknown unknown.

Actually, in Rumsfeldian terms, Marquardt is a known unknown. We know that, or believe him to be, an unknown ability over this distance in this type of event. But he’s in the race - we know he will be there, what we don’t know is how he’ll perform relative to whoever’s at the front, or vs Barnaby.

An unknown unknown in this example would be if he came down with seafood poisoning, or something, prior to the race - something we haven’t foreseen or thought about (or didn’t know we needed to think about). But now that I’ve called it out, we can probably move it to known-unknown since we’re now thinking about it.

Maybe a better example of unknown unknown would be some sort of act of god that cancels the race and gives Barnaby the win by default…

[rrheisler]

I approve this correction.

[dfru]

@Ajax_Bay

But as noted back in July, he has been an effective front runner in the IM Pro Series.

I’m very curious where he lines up with the 70.3 specialists on the bike. He’s pretty aggressive in IM but I don’t know how he will stand up.

Interestingly, they are both ranked very close swim and bike on the PTO entry list, with Barnaby being the better runner (I agree Barnaby wins) but it’s a super intriguing subplot to the race. And a pretty good story no matter which one wins. Two really likeable budding stars.