Be able to run your last 20 miler easily in the 7:15 - 7:30 range feeling better as the run goes on 3 weeks out.
Be able to knock out your 12 - 15 milers in the middle of the week and still have a mid-week tempo session where you are comfortably hitting 6:30-ish for your tempo pace.
Granted, I’ve never run a sub-3 marathon, I’ve never even came close. But then, I’ve only run 1 open marathon and it was at the very beginning of my running career. I know the mpw quotes in this thread are all reasonably typical, but they are still seem* *mindbogglingly high to me.
I was running somewhat near (but not at) the paces described in this thread during my last IM build. My mid-week tempo could be 10+mi at 6:50 if I pushed it, granted yes that’s a pretty big difference from 6:30. My 20miler’s were pretty comfortably in the 7:30 range and my IM run split was honestly pretty comfortable to come in right around 3:30.
That was at 30-35mpw. I’m definitely not saying I’m anywhere close to being able to run a sub-3 open, but doubling the running mileage still seems like a huge stretch to me. I’ll have to take your guys word for it.
It seems imposing coming from tri, but a dedicated run focus means a lot of free time run. If you are used to only training 10hrs per week and build to that running for a 3hr marathon, you’ll be 70-80 mpw.
Look at it this way, a 2.5hr run leaves you with 7.5hrs over 6 days.
If you have a mid-long run like Pfitz likes, that’s another 1.5 hrs off.
That leaves you with 5 hrs over 5 days. Break these up with short (30’) double days or an easy hour.
I personally had an hour of track stuff one day or another tempo, 90’ day every week and everything else was easy-8s.
The important thing is to keep it easy enough that you can hit the fast days on pace.
No bike/swim really frees up your time to run.
–edit–
I did B2B just before my sub-3 with an easy 3:37 maybe? 3:3x, I know. I was in no real hurry to finish after a terrible day being a twat on the bike and walked most of the last mile eating pretzels and visiting with a 1st looper. I would say a 3:30 on a flat course puts you comfortably at a sub-3 stand alone.