It seems like as of tonight it’s on like Donkey Kong.
I was hoping to start a thread to track impacts, specifically amongst our Canadian membership. I’d like to keep this thread to economic impacts and keep the shit talking to a minimum. I know, I know, dare to dream.
So far it seems like this will be a blanket 25% tariff that may or may not include oil. We will see.
Ontario’s premier has said this could cost Ontario alone 500,000 jobs. Here in BC, around 60% of our exports head south of the border. Economic forecasts for the impact of these tariffs have us landing firmly in a strong recession at a time where unemployment is already quite high. This could really, really end up hurting Canada. We have yet to see what kind of retaliatory response Canada will put forward, but whatever it is it will not be as harsh as what we are the receiving end of.
It will be interesting to see what the details of these tariffs will be when we wake up tomorrow.
If there is no immediate “or equal” to the import it will just add inflationary pressure to US consumers and a smaller impact on the CA side of the conversation. If there are immediately available or equals, it will have a pretty quick negative impact for you.
I would assume you guys will impose an equal tariff, or at least I hope you do. I have reached the let it burn phase of grieving…
Wonder if it will push you guys to actually build an oil and gas shipping depot.
I don know about that BC. I would guess that China would take every scrap of lumber Canada cuts in a heart beat. May take a month or two, but the US needs lumber more than Canada needs to export it.
The WSJ has an article about how Trump aides are working feverishly to avoid a blanket 25% tariff…what I think we’ll see is some targeted tariffs announced this weekend with an implementation date in the future to allow further negotiations and eventually nominial if any tariffs
another item is oil, if Canada stops sending oil to the US this will hurt in the US because the refineries that use that oil are set up for it and to change to another feed stock is not easy. So there could be some things that could hurt the US side. Ontario is one of the largest importers of US goods in the world, if it starts not stocking certain items like Kentucky Bourbon, that will hurt those distillers.
This could get ugly fast and some of those folks who supported trump might not feels so good about how this goes.
The lumber thing is interesting. Trump claims he will ease environmental protections to open up their forestry industry.
Up here we have a well oiled forestry machine. Our deforestation rate is very low due to proper management. We are the predominant seller of softwood products in North America. I’m not sure trump throwing environmental protections to the wind so they can log your forests in to oblivion is a great move, but here we are.
Honestly this couldn’t come at a worse time for Canada. We have no leadership as our PM has stepped down less than a year from an election due to his abysmal popularity.
We have high unemployment and a falling GDP per capita due to runaway immigration.
Our governments have talked about “pandemic level economic relief” to businesses and workers to ease the relief of a trade war which means more money printing, and we all saw how awesome that was during COVID.
When all this tariff talk was initially announced that is more or less what I thought would play out. A lot of bluster used as a negotiating tactic - and it seemed to work, as pretty much every Canadian leader jumped out of their seat and moves were made to improve border security pretty quickly.
Now I’m not so sure. Thats the problem with having a chaos agent as POTUS.
https://wapo.st/4aDwlWa
Today’s paper. An informative article written by Toronto based WaPo reporter. My takeaways. The differences between the two provincial premiers both conservative, one from Manitoba and then Ontario. Also that your next premier will be selected based solely on being the “best” to deal with Trump.
“Danielle Smith, the conservative premier of oil-rich Alberta, favors more diplomacy. She was the only premier to not sign a joint statement with the federal government this month that outlined how Canada might respond because it did not rule out curtailing energy exports.” matching not so nicely with this guy,
" Ontario Premier Doug Ford, also a conservative, disagrees. He supports dollar-for-dollar tariffs, pulling U.S. alcohol from shelves and cutting off the province’s electricity exports to the United States as a last resort.
“if it starts not stocking certain items like Kentucky Bourbon, that will hurt those distillers.”
So the American consumer will pay less for bourbon if there is a glut of bourbon on the market…Way to many bourbons are very hard to get in the US. This could be good for the American bourbon drinkers.
I believe it was used previously and the distillers were not happy and pushed the US government in that case??? per mr ford:“I talked to the great governor of Kentucky, and I remember in the last tariffs, we threw on the bourbon. First thing out of his mouth is ‘don’t touch my bourbon,’ and I said, ‘Governor’ – and that’s a serious business down there, when you [mess] with their bourbon. It’s like messing with our LCBO – I said, ‘You know governor, you’ve gotta talk to your president, because the first thing we’re doing: we’re getting your bourbon.” “We are the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world. They will feel the pain. I will make sure I communicate this to our other premiers that they should be following suit,” he said.
I would be disappointed. I have been making an annual trip to Ontario and I have been able to find Buffalo Trace in quantity every time while I never see it in Ohio. It might not be the best bourbon ever, I like it as my cocktail mixer.
The impacts so far are very personal for me. I’m pretty much out of work as of last week. I advise on the development and financing of large infrastructure projects and had three clients, two in Canada and one in Panama. You might be noticing a consistent theme in my clients’ geography - they’re all the targets of the developmentally delayed leader down south. No one wants to progress big projects when you have zero visibility on what your costing will be (tariffs on steel etc), resourcing (constructors are international and need to be able to move staff between the US, Canada etc.) and what your tax base might be (almost all infra has a component of government funding).
So I’m screwed. Fun times when we’re just starting to recover from the impacts of COVID.
I wonder how this will impact large housing projects here? It seems like with weakening demand from the US we might see materials pricing dropping here? I’m no economist so not sure of all the knock on effects.
Europe is threatening the same tariffs… More for us.
I just bought Buffalo Trace for $19 at Sams Club and Sazerac Rye for $21 at Costco. Both in California. Tariffs will flood the market that is already getting higher supply.
Sure, but it seems like the impacts would be minimal in comparison. The US is talking about chopping the economic legs out from under most of our exports and we respond with something that affects, what, 3 or 4 states that have large bourbon operations? Maybe I’m thinking about this wrong.
