Why do you keep talking about “The Base!” This is not about The Base. We’re talking about the ~5% margin of people who are genuinely ambivalent. Ambivalent about who to vote for or ambivalent about showing up at the polls at all. They genuinely exist. Maybe people who are so disgusted they are tentatively planning to sit out the whole election, but could be tipped towards showing up.
The election could very possibly come down to tens of thousands of voters in a few districts. You’re trying to reach not 1%, but 0.01%. Or less. A Cheney or GWB endorsement will have the tiniest of marginal effects. But the election could hinge on the tiniest of marginal effects.
And while for a campaign electioneer trying to maximize cost-efficiency there is a cost to throwing dollars at ads in those few districts when most ads have tiny effects. But there is almost no cost to an endorsement, so they have great efficiency even with little effect.
Call me jaded, or at least unimaginative. I cannot conceive of someone who is actually ambivalent or undecided for whom an endorsement by someone like GWB would change their mind, when everything that Trump has done to date didn’t do it.
My wife, who has never been into politics and often has to be reminded to vote asked where we need to update our registrations, since we moved and will be voting at a different location. She is not sitting this one out.
I’m in PA and a heavily Trump area. I posted earlier, I was shocked to see a Trump sign at one neighbors house, I thought he was smarter…I was wrong.
Well he didn’t actually come out and endorse her. His daughter said he was probably going to vote for her.
I think the Dems can dream of an endorsement from W, but if he just came out and said he wasn’t going to vote this election because he couldn’t support either candidate that would be a big win.
Getting someone to switch from Trump to Harris may be extremely difficult. But, getting a would-be non-voter to show up and vote for Harris could be an easier lift. In 2020, a third of eligible voters didn’t vote. I didn’t check the exact math, but the number who didn’t vote probably exceeds the number who voted for Trump. So, getting even a tiny incremental % of them to vote for Harris represents a huge gain in a close race.
Yes we both agree, the 30% that is all trump is never changing, the 25ish % that are Republicans can be moved, and appear to be starting to move. On the second part we disagree. Time will tell.
I guess Daddy, just came out supporting Harris, 1 more step closer to W following suit. Which makes it hard for me to understand your comment no Rep will vote Harris, we are seeing more and more Republicans coming out in Support of Harris. I guess by your logic these folks never voted for Trump? Its clear there is a part of the party that wants to be done with Trump and I believe many of them voted for him in 2020.
Well you must be jaded and not actually talk to RINO’s as Trump Defines them. This is the group that in 2016 voted Trump cause it had to be a republican so could stack the SCOTUS, then in 2020 it was well, We got the court, and well he’s not that bad. You talk to them now, and its more of a well the Dems will destroy our country, but as the big name Rino’s come out in support of Harris because its the only way to save the country, that does influence them and either they might stay home and some who are the true sheep will follow and vote Harris. These are the 50 and 60 yrs olds who cling to the Reagan Bush years and Cheney as a great person,
