“I’m going to go out on a big limb here and say, I don’t think KM would want that same excuse to happen next year.” - ‘that’s not a big limb’ as Mick Dundee might say.
“there is no chance Lovseth comes out what 9 mins ahead of [a] group that she [swims] with in years to come.” - That too is not a big limb. But if either Philipp or Matthews ‘had the bike legs’ they would’ve pushed harder to keep the deficit down: to Knibb/LCB. And if next year they haven’t got the bike legs, it’ll be the same. As Tim says/asks:
At the stage that Loevseth ‘drifted’ off the front and indeed for the rest of the bike, the primary challenge to Matthews winning was not Philipp, it was the two 10 minutes up the road and gaining: Loevseth was ‘noise’.
So I think @timbasile mentioned now Lovseth is going be more than “noise” for the leaders now that she won…do we agree or disagree with that? If they didn’t have the legs, cool. I don’t give a fuck what happened this year when I look at what I think will happen next year. There is no chance Lovseth isn’t marked better next year, even more so when they literally will likely come out of the swim with her as 90% or higher chance of that (I think it’'s now 3rd time they came out of the water side by side). Thus making it as easy to “mark someone” as you can. So you constantly tell us what will happen with all your analysis, you tell us constantly what someone will swim/bike/run, what that gaps are, etc. If one of the best bikers in the sport doesn’t have the legs for that particular day, cool. I’m not going to then read much into that in future projections. And we will see if you do as well with your “expertise”…I don’t think you or anyone had KM 15 mins back into T1 of one of the favorites right?
So a better marked Lovseth by the KM group then imo makes what the front duo almost pointless…they’ll likely easily come out of T2 with a mangeable gap. See Lovseth only 6 mins back instead of 15. Even if they don’t have the “legs” to sit on Lovseth for the entire ride, if they bleed time where they are 9 mins back (and 3 to Lovseth), they still win.
I’ll bet posting rights forever that KM* is within 3 mins of Lovseth next year in Kona by bike finish. She was what 8-9 mins this year? That’s “doubling” the work she has to do. Loser permanently leaves ST for good?
(BTW your own assertions of this pre-race didn’t include Lovseth in any of the analsyis except where she would swim and/or that she would or wouldn’t have kept KM’s wheel. So your own analysis is that generally one of the better bikers in our sport is going to generally have that abilty, if they don’t on that particular race day…cool. But your own analysis/understanding of the sport suggested that KM would even bike stronger than LCB).
I recommend a chill pill (see first sentence). Must be a slow day for a working chap like you. I assume you’ve finished your edits. I’m tempted to play my ‘ @BDoughtie you love to have the last word’ card again here, but ‘no’ it’s great you’re so passionate to try and make sure someone on the internet doesn’t get it wrong.
Projections are based on past form: plus deductions from how the athletes’ relative strengths may affect their tactic. Sometimes ‘no legs’ means those projections are not realised and tactics have to be adapted, dynamically. This doesn’t mean that projections are not worth making in prospect and in informing race strategy. I’m shocked, just shocked, that you “won’t read much into future projections”.
Will Matthews be closer to or ahead of Loevseth on the bike the next and future times they race? Form still suggests yes: see Hamburg and Zell am See. And do you know what? I bet Loevseth expects Matthews to ride better than her and will try to ‘mark her’ rather than vice versa. One Kona does not a biker make, but it sure wins an Ironman World Champs: bravo!
You put it very well: my “analysis is that generally one of the better bikers in our sport is going to generally have that ability, if they don’t on that particular race day…cool.” Matthews though pleased to finish, unlike here in 2023, has to be disappointed (listen to the PTN review) however she comes across in post-race interviews.
In May 2022 she was beaten by a resurgent Ryf and last she was beaten by a superb (2:44) run from Philipp after they both biked really well. This year will remain what might have been, nevertheless a #2 and ($) a finish. Blowing up would’ve cost Matthews maybe $200,000 so clearly not a good idea the hammer it regardless of the risk (see Knibb and LCB).
Perhaps we’ll see a replay of this in three weeks time - but at only half distance. And we don’t know whether Charles-Barclay and/or Knibb will line up. Maybe Reece pulled Lucy up in time to avoid significant damage. None of the T100 top crew will be there.
I see you completely missed the bet response in such a long winded sulloque. meh, and here is your chance to get rid of me all togther…yawn.
If your going to push back on the idea that Lovseth isn’t going to be marked by @timbasile pov in the future, I’m kinda shocked you wont then take a bet that is “easy” based on the splits from this year is it not?
“I’ll bet posting rights forever that KM* is within 3 mins of Lovseth next year in Kona by bike finish. She was what 8-9 mins this year? That’s “doubling” the work she has to do. Loser permanently leaves ST for good?”
I think a plus or minus 3 minute gap is perfectly possible: why would I ‘bet’ against that?
As for “doubling the work ‘she’ has to do” - this is just meaningless. I appreciate your flocculent comments - you can call mine soliloquies (NB speeling ) if you like, but I note you clearly ‘heard’ it, as did Romeo. Please don’t follow his example.
Back on topic, has @monty explained why Knibb didn’t stick on LCB’s feet as he projected? Does he think this was a ‘tactical’ decision’ or that maybe she’s just not a good enough swimmer: for a 3.8km swim before a long bike and run?
No one is good enough to swim on LCB’s feet when LCB doesn’t want you there. Why we keep wondering that after all the examples of her dropping everyone in IM* races, T100 or 70.3 swims are sorta irrelevant to the discussion point of IM right(?) (whether world class fields or not), really makes no sense. Knibb’s not a strong enough swimmer (duh) so therefore it’s a “smart decision” to let her go if it’s by decision or by ability. But the gap is manageable enough that whether Knibb stays on her feet or not is almost pointless. They are going to be together at some point on the bike. I would have thought the gap would have been closed muuuuuch earlier than she did so was that LCB “over biking”, was it Knibb riding “tactical”? We’ll likely never know.
I wonder when it’s going to be where Knibb/LCB have to basically repeat this year but as “teammates” to put as much time on the chasers as possible (truly work together instead of 2 peole at the front trying to “beak each other” type of effort); and then leave it up to who can run ~2:57 and win. Who/when is someone going to get in both of their ear’s- psssst work together as much as possible for as long as possible once the swim is over and then make it where it’s impossible to catch you. Of course Knibb’s past history of working with people (when she had to “work” for Summer Rapp in some races to see if they could both get away) may leave her permanently sorta jaded on the idea. Of course they could “race each other” the entire time and get the same gap like this year as well. I just wonder though the more they “share” the work, the more they potentially gap the others and “save” something for the run…to then only have to run what mid 2:5x at best to “win”?
I think the 2 main things that will happen next year
1 - Lovseth will factor more into everyone’s calculations. Maybe not marked to oblivion, but at least they’re going to be aware of gaps, and to make a point of knowing when she’s in a dangerous situation. She’s now a Tier 1 favourite going forward (vs arguably a Tier 2 going into this year). Maybe they let her go again, but the gap stays at <5-6 mins vs 9 mins. Unfortunately for LC and TB, this means that they’re probably going to be pushed a bit harder on the run under similar circumstances.
2 - Matthews and Phillip will (hopefully) realize that they can’t mark each other to oblivion - which is what I believe partly what happened. Neither of them had the legs to go with Lovseth in the sense that they also didn’t want to tow the other to her, or at least keep the gap more manageable.
If you’re on your day, maybe you go with her, but if its a normal day (or slightly below normal) you’re probably more content hoping that the other does the towing. And if its just you, you have more freedom to burn one of your few matches to make sure the gap doesn’t balloon like that. No sense in KM burning a match to keep Lovseth in check if LP is just going to hold your wheel (or vice versa).
I could see that if Lovseth was some unknown but she was heavily discussed before the race. When she went up the road I don’t think Kat and Laura were thinking no worries, we can let her go, we need to mark each other. For whatever reason she flew the coop, which makes me think neither gals had great bike legs on the day as opposed to major tactical errors.
In Hamburg, they had 6mins/8mins in hand on the run. Part of the calculus is absolutely that they know they can give her a head start and then run her down. Do you burn a match now to hold her in check, or can you run her down later? is absolutely a question that was asked. And with KM/LP marking each other, it may have been safer to not burn the match knowing that it benefits the other. Chase group dynamics and all that.
Now whether they wanted to give her that much time, or could have stopped her getting away entirely if pressed, are fair questions, but Kat did almost run her down.
THIS^^^ Folks want to talk about the race as if the two front runners were not even there. And neither Kat or Laura could hold Lovseth’s wheel before, why think just magically they can manufacture 20 more watts out of thin air and stay with her this time? She is a beast on the bike, basically rode pace with Taylor all on her own, and as we saw only blew up a little on the run as compared to her past ones.
The change that will happen is the same one that Taylor mandated to the rest of the field, get better on the bike. So with that all in play this year, seems like only Lucy and Lovseth got the memo, while others are still struggling to close that gap. The thing that should worry the ladies is not her bike, but what happens when she improves her swim to start the race a couple minutes ahead. No chance then, and even the off the front swimmers will be now looking over their shoulders to see if and when she rides up to them. We are only at the very beginning of this female Norwegian phenomenon, she was born for this ironman stuff..
Laura Phillip didn’t let them ride away she was riding as hard as possible , likely best bike power at an Ironman to date to be able to stay close with a run.
This is just like the men’s 2024 they didn’t let Sam get away they did what was possible within the race to a finish line, and “Sam’s attempt to get away “ was the error not there smarter pacing .
I’ve said that a few times in this thread but people would rather ascribe plans within plans within plans going awry as to what happened. Usually the simplest answer is the correct one. She had shit legs.
Less than hoped for legs I can see. You don’t set the run course record after being down from the bike course record on a hard day with shit legs.
We can talk all we want about her being down from the front. But let’s remember that was a bike course record on a day that was not necessarily perfect for setting that record.
You can say there’s plans within plans. But her husband and quasi coach literally said she’d do what she did.
She has had that exact issue happen in a number of races. She is a rally runner. She can have a shit bike but her body likes running. It’s one reason I really like her and never count her out, she does a fantastic job decoupling bike legs from run legs.
She’s lying , making it sound like the other women’s were biking so hard. no one has bad legs on the bike and then runs the fastest marathon split . Especially when said bike is 180 km and the run is 42 .
She didn’t want to take any pulls at the front to fatigue before her run and her plan was obviously to get mark into the other girls heads to race way to fast and blow up and she can run to the win like Lange in 2024 , but losveth was like Magnus but a bit smaller and could still run well .
) if you like, but I note you clearly ‘heard’ it, as did Romeo. Please don’t follow his example.