I agree with that, but I’ll also point out she just happen to have the kind of day Lionel Sanders hopes for. And the day that he practically had in St George (although he was fighting like hell by the run for it). Have to introduce him somewhere into the chat
But seriously, her strategy is the patient steady run your race strategy that depends on everyone else making mistakes to win. As she said, she was content with third. Had she not been incentivized by the lead 2 falling off, she might have staid in 3rd and had Kat run by her and take the podium spot. Maybe then she’s in a battle with Laura for 5th? Who knows, maybe that hypothetical is too much, but it played into her hands this year. It likely won’t unfold the same way next year right? If she wants it, she’s going to have to fight for it, and it’s in the fighting that often the alphas get weakened. Common in nature too.
I had my own Live Announcing work over the weekend with Ragnar Relay so did not get to see any of the Kona Live Commentary Coverage. Generally IM, because this is an In House production set their own parameters from this and stray away from the traditional format Play-by-Play Commentator Host essentially running the show, and then an Expert Commentator(s) or Analyst(s) - typically an ex-Pro Athlete(s)*. It seems everyone on the IM Broadcast set is an Expert. It’s a bit hard to follow at times, and I am in the hardcore experienced viewer category!
*Not sure how much coaching or training they get. Some of these in the past have been VERY good. Outstanding actually Others - with all due respect, not so much. Heart I am sure in the right place, and knowledge deep, but the delivery not great!
No one gives a damn where you became World Champion. Your sponsorship bonus contract doesn’t care whether it was Nice or Kona.
The race this year in Nice was fantastic for the IM brand. 5 athletes running side by side up promenade d’Anglais. 3 former World Champions, 1 future World Champion and the best WC debut in a long time. I was scared to look away in case we missed something.
Not only that, but she’s going to be marked from now on as a former champion. If the same race plays out next year in the same way, Kat/Laura aren’t going to let her ‘accidently’ go up the road.
If either Philipp or Matthews had the legs on Saturday (more likely the latter tbf) they would have broken up that pack before Hawi. Maybe about the same place Loevseth ‘found herself’ off the front (was Perterer second wheel?). But they didn’t: they could try to ‘mark’ her all they like (assuredly they knew how strong she was after 145km riding together in Hamburg) but if they cannot generate the watts . . . > gap. If this scenario is reprised, as is entirely possible, this could play out the same way.
in Loevseth, Knibb and LCB had a known fast IM runner only 6/4 minutes down. Forced to run faster than they could; and paid up. Will these two run slower/prudently next time? Will they be extra cautious in every future race with hot/humid conditions, having both suffered a heat related illness episode?
Letting Lovseth the rookie go up the road is different than letting Lovseth the reigning champion go up the road. In one of those situations Matthews/Phillip are more likely to be fine staying within themselves and marking each other. In the other, it’s more worth also marking her as well. (I’ll also note that neither of them were 2nd wheel when she rode off, so it would have been harder to follow).
The better frame of reference is probably the gap back to Kat - Even if she gets the gap and they let her go, does she push at least 35s harder on the bike, knowing that the reigning champ is up the road? The way Kat closed out the final few kms would suggest that there was a bit more gas in the tank.
They might well let her go, but giving her 9 mins on the bike probably won’t happen again.
You actually think it was an ability to not hold her wheel vs a “tactical” error/decision?
To @timbasile point, there is no chance she gets that much freedom ever again, and no I don’t think it was a lack of effort that they couldn’t hold a closer gap. I think it was a clear tactical decision Saturday (marking others and not her).
Matthews said more or less that at the post race press conference. Philipp, unless there’s seriously climb involved, is not as strong a cyclist as Loevseth, so yes, an ability thing. For evidence (apart from Saturday) I offer Hamburg: Philipp was third wheel more or less all the time.
If you think (I do) that on the Kona course Matthews is a stronger cyclist than Philipp, Matthews’ tactic has to be to limit her gap to the leaders and ensure she does not drap Philipp with her: and then run a 2:47. The splits before and after Hawi will have told Matthews that the race was going up the road. Did she respond? No. Was that because she still thought her greatest threat was Philipp? (my answer is ‘no’, it was because she didn’t have the legs - see my first sentence.)
Cool and I’ll still side with Tim’s take on this in regards to how much gap they give moving forward. So whether that means they overbike moving forward and can no longer run 2:47 type of splits, I don’t think Lovseth is getting that type of allowance in years to come. So agree, disagree, “we’ll see” I suppose.
I’’m very curious about the gap that opened on the bike between Kat/ LP and those up the road. Why did it get that big?
Kat said she didn’t have any bike legs, but maybe that was her covering for the fact that she was not willing to pull LP. Maybe in refusing to do all the work and focusing so much on LP, she let the gap grow. The way she ran certainly indicates she had room to go faster on the bike. So, maybe it was a tactical error.
On the other hand, I assume she was not pleased to be 14+ minutes down. That gap must have been well outside her target. If she’d had better bike legs, wouldn’t she have put in a push once she started hearing time gaps of 10,11, 12+ minutes? If she had the ability, why let the gap get so big as to preclude victory? Maybe it was actually the case that her bike legs failed her, kind of like Lange in Nice.
I have no idea which it is or what explains how someone with her bike strength ended up that far down on both the front of the race and SL.
To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, you go to war with the legs you have, not the legs you wish to have at a later time. She most certainly was capable of following at least for a time. She was not sure if she was capable of following, remaining strong and running that run.
So in the end, she really did still hold back tactically.
Whether it’s her bike legs or tactics or combination of both, I think the point still likely is important; now she’s moved into the “must mark her” pov; or atleast take what happened in this race and not happen again (or close the gap). So if yall are saying it truly was a lack of legs, I’'m going to go out on a big limb here and say, I don’t think KM would want that same excuse to happen next year. Or shall I say, there is no chance Lovseth comes out what 9 mins ahead of that group that she also swam with in years to come.
You’re right that it comes down to a tactical decision. ‘Not having the legs’ is usually short for ‘…for that particular decision’.- both Kat and Laura could have obviously surged and closed the gap in the short term but both decided that they didn’t have the legs to make it worth on the long term, or that they didn’t want to each be the one to do it.
For athletes of that calibre, if you get on the bike and discover you have fewer matches than you planned, you save them for when it matters. Or in this case - why burn a match when my biggest competitor will get a free ride? It’s fine if Solveig gets a gap, I’ll just run her down later.
Next year, Solveig will factor more prominently into that calculus. Maybe they let her get 3-5 mins but she’ll have to work harder for a 9 min gap next time.
I agree SL will be a marked woman in all future WC races, but KM was certainly marking Knibb and LCB last weekend. I just wonder why she let the gap grow to 14+ minutes. She must have thought that was too much ground to make up, especially when there were two women at the front. Why not push to keep it to 10 or less?
But would she actually say, “I had no intention of pulling Laura around and giving her a free ride”?
It’s kind of a snarky thing to say, but essentially that’s literally what Mark said pre-race. That she was willing to lose it on the bike and sit in. Laura was either baited or forced to do a LOT of work.
How many times have we heard people tell an angry Cam Wurf, “sorry, I just don’t have the legs!” when they sit in behind him and he’s freaking out pulling everyone at the front?
I almost think “don’t have the legs” is their internal code where they all know what they are saying, and they just don’t have to say it.
In other words - “If I had the bike legs to tow you around and then beat you on the run, I would, but I’m just resigned to sit back because, ‘I don’t have the legs’ - for that.”
Cus those 2 rode strong just as Lovseth did and those runners likely fucked up the tactics. If you think it was only they didn’t have the legs, cool. I don’t think it was only that. Thumbs up to it only being them not being able to ride that power though.
