Talbot is doing an AMA on Reddit that might answer this one soon.
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Me too! It has the potential to be a real barn burner if Taylor comes into T2 with 10+ minutes on Kat and or Chelsea, Penny, etc. and we get to see a drag race to the finish line.
Youâd think Knibb would race it controlled, but sheâs a competitor and 2025 Objective A is winning Kona (T100 and Marbella wins subordinate). Have to keep in mind this is the only rehearsal for Kona sheâs going to get (nutrition (echoing @marcag ) and bike/run effort balance). If she âpaces it to qualifyâ this will be inadequately testing. How much will the personal reasons which caused her very late withdrawal from T100 Singapore continue to affect her? (idk obv)
Kona 18 months ago was Knibbâs first IM and thank goodness she did ride with a self imposed power ceiling (âdidnât go for the winâ - and even if she had LCB was on a mission) otherwise the final third of that marathon would have been even slower than it was. That excellent debut in 2023 was Part 1 of preparation for going for the win October next. IM Texas is Part 2 but really needs to be full on to identify and lessons that need learning. Surely she will ride away, but how then will those 26 miles go: âweâll see!â Her next key race is the US ITT in Charleston on 21st May (putative, still Lidl-Trek?).
Matthews will (obv) want to win (threepeat) in a good time (below 8:25 say; every second counts). Twelve months ago she was coming back from the calf tear in T100 Miami that stopped her in her tracks (with the win up for grabs) so minimal run training and a cautious run/walk in the Woodlands. In 2024 her swim got closer to the front (see IMWC Nice and Taupo). Weâll have to if the bike is any closer to Knibb after her change of coach from Geesmann to Dowsett. Doing her own ârunâ coaching? The comparative run speed (with Knibb and Sodaro) in the first 5km will be the metric which will flag whether this is a contest.
Can we disregard Sodaro? Clearly @kajet doesnât think so! 2024 was a misfire season, and one of mid-season coach and bike sponsor turbulence. A T100 contracted athlete, she managed only one finish from her two starts (contract requirement = 4+GF). Losing 10 minutes to Matthews on the bike in Nice she lost time to her on the run too. After the zenith of her unexpected triumph in Kona in 2022, 2023 and then 2024 has stumbled along. Would be great to see her start 2025 with a bang. She needs a wheel if her bike is going to be competitive and I canât see whose that might be; Adam maybe.
Me too!
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I donât often pick Sodaro for wins, but the course seems made just for her. You think Matthews will outswim her? I donât suppose anyone but Knibb could just drop Sodaro on the bike on that pancake flat course. If sheâs fit, obvs
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She has been working with Neal for a while. I suspect her bike has moved forward.
She is quite aero. She is on a new bike (I think) so there is probably some fine tuning to be done there.
She does well in the heat.
She is my pick for the win.
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A lot of that time was on the descent.
She did that race with a knee injury which severely handicapped her run, and she had no course prep, ie the descents.
A little traffic problem as well if you remember the pics
Addendum to my post: you can always rely on the PTO website for convenient head to heads. Hereâs a small trivium. In the last 3 seasons, the swim gap between the two women was never more than 6 seconds, except IM WC Nice 2024, when Matthews put a âstaggeringâ 15 seconds into Sodaro.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/head-to-head/chelsea-sodaro/kat-matthews
" I âaint doinâ this âOh Iâm going to be happy with my best,if I get 8th or 9thâ,no dude,I wanna fucking win and Iâm gonna say that."
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One must remember that both Nice and Taupo were wetsuit swims and Texas will not be. That may well affect things.
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While you canât ever recreate Kona in training, I think she can do some training that will help set up and predict her goal pace for each discipline.
If sheâs racing for the win, I think itâs going to be an awesome race to watch as I assume the run will fade, and the porta potty stop will make it interesting for Kat and Chelsea to run her down.
If sheâs targeting a Kona test out of this race, I think it would be wise to smartly pace the first half of the bike and run and really dig in and race hard on the back half of each. Itâs is the first race of the season after all. Why not build into the year.
Very cool
I expected the podium to be a foregone conclusion, KM, Sodaro and Knibb. Now we have a dark horse and we know she is definitely on form!
Knibb will race for the win but that might be the problem. Look how her run went at Kona and she hasnât done a marathon since Oct 2023
She is very new to LD/IM whereas she is racing against two ladies who have all the experience in the world. She is on a learning curve and I think she will be unbeatable in 2026âŚ.
IM TX is typically a wetsuit swim. Last year it was extremely close but Ironman found the cool water. Cloudy days leading into the race kept it just under 76. It really just depends on if we have cool mornings, clouds, and some rain leading into the race.
Supposed to be hot all the next two weeks. I wouldnât bet on a wetsuit legal swim.
Weâre talking about the pro race where the wetsuit cutoff is 71.5*F if I remember correctly and I donât expect it to be that cool in two weeks. Youâre talking about the age group race cutoff.
the male starting list is quite impressive, 6 in the top 10 at Kona (Lange 1, RVB 3, Chevalier 4, Wurf 7 , Lindars 8 , Hogenhaug 9 and Hanson 10. 14 in the top 25 and a total of 25 starting at Kona 2025. Plus, Germans Hirsch and Sowieja who werenât in Kona are Nice qualified.
Some more numbers : 13 of 22 of those who made the swim front pack in Kona are racing. Hirsch, Salvisberg and HorstfallâTurner should join them.
Unfortunately Lange informed on his IG that he is nursing an injury and can not run nor ride. Chevalier is also on the fence. He has never DNF a race, but while it looked good in T100 races, it may not be very wise when you intend to score at 3 IM and have high expectations for what may be his last opportunity on the hilly Nice courseâŚ
The womens race has âonlyâ 3 great contenders : Matthews, Knibb and Sodaro.
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revised male picks then:
- von Berg
- Blummenfelt
- Wilkowiecki
Dark horse: Iden
For those who have raced before - how do you get from transition race morning over to swim start? Are there shuttles? I am racing solo so Iâm unable to get dropped off after getting the bike ready.
Last year I just walked along with thousands of other people. Itâs about a mile from what I recall, so have appropriate footwear.
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