rules
expect that riding a difficult bike course is just as cool as riding in the most far flung island in the world with the worst ecological footprint possible its just different not better or worse.
if you want to discuss race location and its not kona
there is the nice is not a world champs thread you can discuss this
here its about the race in hand on the 22nd september.
something i am interested in , predict the fastest bike split and the slowest bike split you think an athlete can still be competitive with
for pros and age grouper
What were Lucyās splits in July and is she over her achilles issues? I really hope she has a fantastic race. The funny thing is that I am going for a 4 hrs ride this afternoon with the person who will be timing everything (Marc Roy from Sportstats)ā¦so he will have the definitive numbers on what is predicted here.
At T100 London (late July) LCB split about the same, on the bike, as Gentle, Matthews and Philipp, with Lee a minute back. Simmonds caught and dropped her riding 2 minutes faster. But LCBās ankle/achilles returned within a mile (the Ryzon youtube has footage of her saying āitās badā) and she got a golf buggy lift back from the far end of Loop 1. So we wonāt know the score till either she scratches pre-start or once she starts promenading des anglais (will her lead/gap at T2 be a factor in how she runs?).
Edit to add: Sorry Dev, you said July so I assumed you meant āJulyā. IM Nice was in June (for bike split see below). Outridden by two very new to long course athletes. https://stats.protriathletes.org/race/im-france/2024/results
The IM Nice bike course was 170km and the run course was 41.0km
Hereās the #2 athleteās strava:
So we have to assume LCB was just pootling along (a 180km ride that day wouldāve been 5:31 for her). And her 2:50 run works out at a marathon pace of about 2:55 (which is an excellent run for her (albeit of a relaxed bike).
The course next Sunday has an additional 10km out and back to the hamlet of Caillon on the RD2:
To an extent, thereās a question mark over Haug as well. Haug rode so well at Roth and then three weeks later, starting the bike with the main pack (Byram, Philipp (also at Roth), Matthews (13 days from IM Vitoria), Norden, Jewett, Sodaro et al) she and Sodaro (with Jewett) rolled round together, 5 minutes adrift (of that whittled down pack). Were they both just sandbagging (Jewett just riding best she could)? Haug then jogged it in, losing 4 minutes to Sodaro and 6 to Jewett.
The IM Nice bike course is 170km, while the IM WC Nice bike course is 180km. Itās almost exactly 10km difference of an out-and-back flat-ish section, ergo 15min if traveling at 40km/h.
So if we were to compare LCBās time from June, I would:
add 15ā for the proper distance
deduct 5ā for legal drafting / race dynamics (stronger field meaning LCB would have somebody to ride with, benefiting both aero and taking curves)
deduct 5ā for knowing the course slightly better
deduct 5ā for pushing harder
not adjust for weather conditions (forecast for 23high 17low vs 24high 18low in June)
Iād then actually expect the same bike time from Lucy as she did in June.
[quote=āSheridanTris, post:11, topic:1278685, full:trueā] I think you might be right. Add in A race prep and I would expect a similar time.[/quote]
+15 for the 170 >180km Check
legal drafting: Zero. Who do you think sheāll ever be behind or even āride withā? Offer a single name! If she gets caught on the bike sheāll be off the podium (in extremis DNF). And if she does get get caught they will pass and be gone.
Knowing course and pushing harder: absolutely, but way more than 5 minutes for world champs motivation and being chased.
If LCB rides 5:16, even with a lead of 5 minutes on Haug/Sodaro/Matthews/Philipp at T1 she will be toast.
ProtriNews pod (with Carfrae and Moench btw to āupā the insight level):
The battle between Philipp and Matthews is super interesting, whichever position they end up.
Last year there were 7 clear front runners and 6 filled the top six places (Matthews DNFing). This year there are 5.
The world champions: Haug, Sodaro and LCB, each have questions to answer so their relative performance will depend on being OK on the day.
Back to LP v KM:
Matthews will expect to be ahead out of the water, but not by much: see T100 London (and further back Kona last year) but quite likely together. Will Philipp ride away from Matthews? The former was way stronger in London (3 weeks after Roth) but on a course with climbs and descents, Matthews put minutes into her over the Presidio, and then ran away.
The long climb up to Col de lāĆcre is a different beast. Who has the better w/kg? Likely more relevant is who will be prepared to gamble matches only 65 minutes into the ride (climb starts at 40km)?
After the 180km I can see them riding into T2 together. Who will then have, in their beasted legs, the best marathon. Very close call.
This is not a Kona course, obviously. The benefit of riding with somebody is partially on the drafting side, but partially on the taking the corners side. The IM Nice didnāt offer any partnership nor competition to LCB.
As highly probable I see LCB and Fenella Langridge to start the bike together and continue for half a way.
As probable I see LCB being cought by either Kat Matthews or Laura Philipp, around 120-140km. The latter is actually my favourite for the race.
so has everybody decided that haug is not the real favorite here , is there anything known that she is not in shape.
phillipp seems to have done the smartest prep this year but i find it a bit strange that an 8.02 would not get you into the conversation ā¦
unless lucy really has improved her down hill cycling i do not see her going into t2 first.
I think the sea swim is less advantageous to Haug but personally I think she will come off the bike closer than usual to front pack. She is lighter and can climb well, she descends better than most.
Not heard she isnāt fit but she is one of my favourites.
Anne is a tough pick. She might be like in Lanza and Roth this year, then sheāll be chasing on the run like Patrick Lange did last year. If sheās not in race shape, she might simply DNF.
I expect a few DNFs after bike & early on the run - once somebody is energy-flat and seeing thereās nothing to win/podium anymore, theyāll drop off to save themselves for other races to come. This is specifically valid for those not interested in IM Pro series and those competing in T100.
Not sure if Iām looking at the splits wrong but back in 2019 after lucy got her penalty she had 3 minutes on Sodaro about 45k ish in but only got off the bike up 80 seconds up. Pretty sure Sodaro can descend better than her.
