You’re right: Sodaro gained 2 minutes on that descent from Le Broc down into the valley. Having lost shedloads on the ride up to the col.
Will any of the athletes be riding drops? How many watts penalty aero v better position climbing and descending (and lighter).
In fact. Looking at the data the only person who out descended Sodaro was ryf….
so are we saying lucy has no chance this weekend since she dropped out of london …
at the end of the day people are always way to focused on the last result
if you were to say haug raced too fast in lanza and roth then i would get it a bit.
but to me its seems smart to go easy in london
and one has to differentiate what is good for pto and what is good for her in what is prob the last year she will have a chance to win. and i totally agree she should not have taken a contract.
at the end of the day all girls at the level of their best day so far this day year ,this weekend haug wins hands down on this course .
and if you take last years kona and translate to Nice haug also wins.
I have of course no idea if she is healthy, thats why iam asking.
so you are saying sodaro will be miracously have her first good day since she won kona .
certainly possible but how likely is it i wonder. and if she has her kona win day from she is certainly somebody that could win. it was a class full distance one hit wonder so far.
I think she has a chance. But I was just more commenting on her descending ability. She’s also the same weight as haug 52kg so she’s light as well. She’s also clearly better at the full. 2nd Hamburg (debut) to Laura Phillip. Kona 2022 win. Kona 2023 6th while
Injured and unable to bike well. Win and course record even with a 5 minute penalty at IM New Zealand 2024. Just depends on which Sodaro shows up.
It’a a big call to say she “wins hands down”. If I wanted to troll, I’d call it “disrespectful to other athletes” and throw a fit 
We don’t really know what shape Haug is in. After her campaign which culminated in Roth she may have cooked herself for the season. In fact I’d be hard pressed to understand where a 41-year-old finds the ability to recover like this (no innuendo here!).
Of course, we don’t really know what shape Philipp is in either. But I had to pick a German, else my reputation here as a “Haug hater” might expand to “Germany hater”, and that would be equally untrue and a lot worse.
Seriously though, it’s Philipp’s wicked bike run combo that will count on this course, as well as her growing confidence after ditching the old habit of avoiding racing strong fields. But it’s a crapshoot and she could very well come 7th. As could Haug.
Can’t wait for this one, more excited about this than the men’s.
No clue who the favourite is.
Also loved the course last year. A test of biking skill as well as power.
Can’t wait!
I think Annie could ride great on this course being all of 40 kilo’s. I can see a world where she gets off the bike within 5min of the lead and it’s lights out.
You all keep looking at who a lighter athlete is how it makes an athlete faster on Nice course… I consider you very wrong.
This is not an uphill race, none of the climbs are very steep, W/CdA trumps W/kg plus downhill skills make a difference. The top females will all be riding around 3.5W/kg. Then I would be happier to be the 58kg athlete rather than the 48kg athlete.
It’s more an acknowledgement that her cycling has dramatically improved over the last 12-18 months.
interesting way of misquoting
Misquoting? Certainly didn’t mean to… could you please explain what you meant then? I didn’t find any additional context that would really change the complexion of that sentence.
Descending ability is very important also
Last year I lost 2 minutes on Vinokorov in a 5 minute decent
And I would guess that I am a better than average triathlete descender.
Not that any of these women are going to have to race Vinokorov.
Haug has been very quiet since Roth and LCB has been very quiet since stopping in London.
If both are fit and on top of their game I think we are in for a brilliant battle.
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on this course W/KG pulls you closer to front without blowing up then in kona.
a 40-48 Kg women in kona can not keep up with a 58-64 kg women at the same 3.5 watts per kg at kona no matter the CDA.
that’s a 140 watts vs 225 watts on the slight rollers of kona, 225 watts with a bad CDA wouls slit win and has over the years, here in NICE with so much climbing in first 60 km at both wts at a 3.5 watts per kg they are side by side . but the 40 -48 kg athlete is in control not over chasing.
as a 62 KG male I know this as I have compared data with so many top racers of all sizes I better them on all hilly course and have no chance on the flats under the same numbers.
The descent is also not wt only focused but skill. can’t just let it roll the whole time like IMC or UTAH , had to turn and touch brakes.
its says if all girls are at the best form they have shown this year haug would win
you are welcome to show me a better ironman performace than haugs roth this year …
it does not mean she will win but what we have seen so far her performance is the best this year
mathews best ironman score is 94 .70
haugs 99.78 roth
lucy 78.4 it was defo better than that but thats the score
phillip 89 points in roth so we have a super clear comparasion
sodaro 89 .11
so iam pretty sure they can be no arguement when i say if each of them is on the best day they have shown so far haug beats phillip hands down
unless you think 12 min that haug was faster than phillipp in roth is close .
and to be sure i do think phillip will be a lot closer and she could win but given haugs run is better the chance are higher haug beats her in terms of probability
and i woudl think mattews has the ever so slight edge on her as well but this will be super super close and its a wash really
and i think watching phillip closing the gap after the swim on the first climb will be spectacular and she might be able to break away on the 2nd climb but i dont really think they will let her get away.
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I’m totaling rooting for Kat.
What is the start time for this?
Maybe it’s just my social feed but I’m barely seeing any mention of this race on socials. I had to do a double take this morning when I saw this thread and didn’t realize the race was this weekend.
Maybe it’s different across the pond but Nice just doesn’t seem to have the hype that Kona does.
Also agree it’s very quiet. IM is making some nice content from last year that appeared on my feed though.
Regarding the win, if Haug doesn’t DNF or have a career ending crappy race where she decides to bow out, she’s going to win. I’d bet on her winning. No one could have come close at her two full distance races this year and it will be the same here unless she has health issues.
After her, it’s Matthews or Phillips in 2nd if Lucy isn’t on form.
I’d normally say Matthews has 2nd locked here but she’s raced a lot. I suspect it will show that she’s just missing something, even though she’ll race well. She will just say say felt a little flat and wonder why without attributing it to her schedule. Having said that, I’ve given her every excuse to prove this no name Internet nobody wrong and do otherwise.
I also suspect Lucy played rope a dope with the world like Laidlow consistently does. She’s going to show up like she did in Kona last year.
The race will be a lot of fun to watch unfold.
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