March 1st–Cameron Brown and Steve Larsen, are racing head to head. Is Larsen ready? Or is it another person who will win? What are you guys thinking? Is it won from the bike or the consistent swimmer, biker, runner? Cameron really isn’t all that great at any one but is good at all three!
I think that you have hit the nail on the head with what you say about Cam Brown’s greatest strength - he is very well rounded. More importantly, he has been very succesful recently and that yields a great deal of confidence. I would be surprised if he does not win on the weekend.
My dark horse long shot, is Gordo Byrn. As many regular Slowtwitch posters/viewers know the big G has been putting in the big miles as of late. My guess is the Ultra-Man win and the recent Epic training have taken the G-Man to a whole new level. I am pulling for him to have a bust-out race this weekend.
I have a sense Larsen is going to pull another Lake Placid. I suspect his swim will have improved to the point of only being 4-5 minutes down at T1, He will go hard on the bike and I would predict a sub 2:50 run, assuming he doesn’t have mechanical or physical problems.
This is a great field and many others are capable of similar efforts. I just have a feeling that SL will be ready for this one after a disappointing 2002.
I think NZ will be a great race. I think there are lot of people in this race out to make a statement or feel that they have something to prove. I’m guessing that the L boys will put on a show on the bike.
Tough to pick against Cam but here are my picks:
1.Larsen
-
Lieto
-
Brown
-
Deboom
-
Bernhardt
-
MacFadyen
I’ll go for the run-boys, since running usually decides the big ones.
1 Brown because Bernhardt can’t make up for a poor swim
2 Bernhardt because the others have no chance on the run
3 DeBoom because he is training his run with his brother
4 Larsen because he’s the best biker
5 Lieto because he’s the second best biker
A dark horse - Chad Hawker.
He is coming back from injury and is very fast when he is good. Probably not a win against this field but possible top 5 if a good day for him.
cameron
macfadyen
larsen
lieto
.
It’s going to be a hell of a race. I was on the plane w/Steve L. and Tony DeBoom. Steve looks FIT!!! And, talking to him, he feels good and is ready to go. And, there may be a last minute entrant. Rumors only at this point. I’d also say watch out for Claus B. I hear he’s looking really good.
Me, I’m not racing, but will be drinking Kiwi beer and keeping my four IM virgins from going nuts.
Later…
Where is Chris McCormack on the list? Isn’t he going to defend his title? If he’s there I think he’ll take it.
not that he’s a threat but I wouldn’t be surprised if rhodsey enters after his dnf in malaysia…is that the rumour of a last minute entry?
Where is Chris McCormack on the list? Isn’t he going to defend his title? If he’s there I think he’ll take it.
He won at Australia, not NZ. And yes, he’s defending his title. Speaking of IM Australia, the pro field is nowhere near as deep. No really big names other than Macca and maybye Jason Shortis. I wonder why?
Damn - I have NO clue. But I’m routing for Larsen…
Speaking of this race (and yeah, I know it’s not really the first IM of the season but it definitely has the most focus) is it just me or is everyone out there starting to get really jazzed for the season? We’ve still got about a foot of snow on the ground, but the birds are already starting to chirp, March is literally around the corner and I am starting to get pretty psyched to go out and kick some ass in 2003. I’ve got a couple training buddies at NZ - it’s been cool watching them build up and taper so early so maybe that is it.
not that he’s a threat but I wouldn’t be surprised if rhodsey enters after his dnf in malaysia…is that the rumour of a last minute entry?
Yeah, that’s the rumor, though I haven’t heard anything further. I don’t think Rhodsey is back in town yet (tomorrow, if I remember right).
Saw Lisa Bentley today. She looks good. Lots of people starting to get into town. Weather is great, but windy. Not too hot and overcast. Damn! I wish I were racing. Next year for sure.
Let’s go with Larsen–Go to love people who are confident(cocky) with their own abilities.
over Larsen, can swim bike and run and NZ will be a lot faster than WI…
I’ll side with Andrew. Lieto is obviously on move. As an up and comer it is seems reasonable that’ll he be faster now than he was 6 months ago. Also, if Lieto & Larsen hook up on the bike and stretch out to a big lead, Lieto is going to win the run over Larsen, especially since Steve will have to bike 5’ faster than Lieto just to catch up to him after the swim. If I were Chris I’d be pretty excited about this race.
Also, if Lieto & Larsen hook up on the bike and stretch out to a big lead, Lieto is going to win the run over Larsen, especially since Steve will have to bike 5’ faster than Lieto just to catch up to him after the swim. I’m not so sure about that. In their wins, Larsen ran 2:56 at Lake Placid and Lieto ran 3:04 at Wisconsin. They ran w/in 14 seconds of each other at Half IM Cali last year.
I’d love to see Larsen win by smoking everyone on the bike and showing that it is not always the fast runners who win ironman races.
The women’s race (which doesn’t seem to warrant much discussion) also looks like a good field and I think that Lisa Bentley will kick ass again.
Rhodes is in! Should be a dandy tomorrow.
but the sad truth… it is the fastest runner who wins at IM distances 
… unless they’re complete suck-asses on the bike.