but the sad truth… it is the fastest runner who wins at IM distances 
… unless they’re complete suck-asses on the bike.
Maybe this is true a good percentage of the time, but there are many, many exceptions. Off the top of my head, Badmann’s performances at Kona, Zack’s many IM wins, and Larsen in LP come to mind.
I agree. In Kona, the field is deep enough that the “runners” can get towed along at a decent clip, making it hard for the “cyclists” to get away. In NZ, it will be interesting to see what Lieto, et al. do when Steve comes by. If a couple of guys make the break and leave Brown on his own, I think that you could see a gap at T2 that is unsurmountable (Steve is actually a pretty decent runner, when healthy). Much will depend on when Steve catches the lead group (which depends, in turn, on both Steve’s swim and how well ref’d the race is). If he catches them at 40 miles in then those guys could be in trouble, either because if they let Steve go, the gap will be considerable, or because if they go with him, they will spend the next 70 miles racing Steve’s race and not their own. Hopefully there will be some nasty crosswind and guys will actually have to pedal their bikes to make it T2. In any case, I am looking forward to “watching” a fun race tomorrow on Ironmanlive.com while at work (10:00 AM PST start).
I agree…Larsen when healthy could smoke Lieto. Chris is an exceptional biker, but he’s not Larsen yet. Like in Hawaii, it will depend on when and if he flies by them on the bike.
tommy
I’m still not convinced of this. Since a really fast bike time is sub 4:30 and a really fast run time is sub 2:45, you’re on the bike for 2 hours more … obvious advantage to the biker! The problem is that the really fast bikers tend to blow up on the run. When they don’t (ie. Zack, Hellreigel, etc) they tend to win the race. The heat of Hawaii tends to hasten the run crash of the daring bikers so maybe that is where the idea that bikers can’t win over runners in ironman races comes from.
By the way, I am a runner so I wish that it was defintely true that runners have an unfair advantage but I’ve found that my capabilities on the run haven’t surfaced yet in the two ironman races that I’ve done 
I think Larsen is easily capable of a sub 4:15 bike on this course. And a sub-2:50 run. He could dog paddle the swim and still challenge for top dog with those times unless someone else steps up, which, with this field, is possible.
Frank
I’ll go out on a limb and say I don’t think Steve L. will have the fastest bike split of the day. I think that will go to Matt Brick, ex-duathlon champion.
Sunny and lots warmer this afternoon. About 11AM today we had torrential downpours for about 20 minutes, now it’s a bit steamy. Good spectator weather.
Looks like it will be a barn-burner!! Rhodesy has been keeping a very low profile. I can’t wait for tomorrow!
clm in Taupo
Sub 4:15 and sub 2:50? We’re not talking about the German autobahn here, these are chip-sealed roads where rolling requires pedaling. That being said, we’re in for a whale of a race, there’s a lot of talent and potential toeing the line this morning, particularly for this early in the year. Brown is my pick to win, but I think Larsen is going to show up big time in the race tactics and on the podium
Mark