** I would give the top-10 at 70.3/140.6 Worlds a buy each year into the next year with no validation required.//**
You do understand why WTC does this, dont you?? They dont really care that much about the individual athletes beyond the fact that they want them to race “Their” races. That’s why both series are set up to severely limit the cross over potential except in super rare circumstances of the couple bomb proof athletes. IT is not in their interests to have them do less racing in their races. So many hard choices are/ have been made this year for the athletes, and folks that could podium in each of the series will be absent from the top end of the results because of the commitment it takes to get there…
I think it is too bad for us fans of the sport, so many classic match ups are just not going to happen because of this. Like how great would it be if Lucy were in SF this weekend and not think about some validation race? But we are just like the Pros in these decisions, not really considered when these decisions are made to try and tie athletes to one series or set of races…
It sounds like she’ll only race 2x140.6 + 1x70.3 since the plan is to validate for both World Champs with IM France in 10 days. I’m not a fan of validating. LCB is a great athlete but an injury prone one. Making her do a 140.6 so that she can race the World Champs just puts another race on her body. She brings value to any start line. & I’m sure there’s some sort of undisclosed deal where she’s getting paid to do this but I still think it’s a lot of racing with the T100 Tour. I would give the top-10 at 70.3/140.6 Worlds a buy each year into the next year with no validation required. Chances are top athletes will race your races. Better chance that top athletes come in fresh/with the race calendar they want/peaked/without injury/etc. They have direct competition now so I doubt they would consider something like this.Yes, completing IM Nice validates for both the IMWC and for Taupo after the T100 GF.
I’m a fan of the requirement to validate. To allow the best athletes (who as last year’s podium or last 5 years champions) to chin off all IM races till the actual event maybe in their individual interests (at least the option so to do) but it’s not in IM’s interests and it’s also unfair to every other athlete who has to race a full distance to earn a slot. Those athletes (several T100 contracted same as all the women I list below) may or may not be ‘injury prone’. Earning a slot just "puts another race on body.
IM want the top ranked people to race IM races. And their reintroduction of validation post the pandemic induced hiatus has been tweaked (by allowing two 70.3s to be sufficient validation for IMWC and to allow an IM to be sufficient validation for the 70.3WC).
Look at the beneficial effect on IM participation this has had:
LCB = IM Nice
Ryf = IMSA
Sodaro = IMNZ
Haug = IM Lanza
Philipp = two 70.3s (well three actually)
Men: IM Frankfurt for the Norges, IM Vitoria for Laidlow, Ditlev @ Florida, Lange doing IM Pro Series anyway, Frodeno retired
I wonder if the fact that Knibb will not be racing Nice was a factor in her decision? On current trends if Knibb races IMWC from 2025 onwards she’s going to win. LCB returns to bridesmaid status, at best.
I wonder if Knibb is having FOMO (for Nice). She could just slip in a low key 70.3 this month to validate (she could’ve raced Boulder: she chose T100 SF). Mont Tremblant, perhaps, with little prejudice to Olympic dreams, though I guess she needs to get a few rides in on her UCI compliant bike. (Note: I think such a volte face is most unlikely: she tends to stick to what she says she’ll do, and what she won’t, not flick flack. She also has many more years to dominate the IMWC: no rush.)
What makes you so biased Knibb just walks into IMWC 2025 onwards and wins? LCB swims faster than Knibb, can bike on par when she is in championship form and runs faster.
Ok maybe Anne & Ryf will be coming into the twilight years and/or retirement so may not be able to contest. I’m sure there will be a whole heap of post Olympic talent coming through too.
Whatever happens, we can sure look forward to some great battles between LCB and Knibb in the future.
What makes you so biased Knibb just walks into IMWC 2025 onwards and wins? LCB swims faster than Knibb, can bike on par when she is in championship form and runs faster.
I’m sure there will be a whole heap of post Olympic talent coming through too.
Whatever happens, we can sure look forward to some great battles between LCB and Knibb in the future.I too look forward to the battles ahead, between those two and others. LCB is an amazing athlete and her IMWC races and her St George 70.3WC wire-to-wire win was extraordinary.
My so-called ‘bias’ stems from the fact (trends init) that Knibb will waste LCB in every future bike leg and her 70.3 run speed suggests that with minimal further experience, they’ll be pretty equal on the run (fit Taylor; fit Lucy).
Just remember Kona last year was an afterthought to Knibb’s season, which could not kick in till her Olympic selection was guaranteed (early August) and this was her first ever full distance. Accordingly Knibb rode in a measured restrained way because (sensible girl) she wanted to finish: running more than 17 miles (even stand alone) was completely unknown territory.
Next time Knibb races a full, it will be to validate for Kona. And likely be Texas, btw: the North American champs and an IM Pro Series race. https://stats.protriathletes.org/...lucy-charles-barclay
I’d be interested to see your nominations for the “whole heap of post Olympic talent coming through”. Besides Spivey, who (metric = top 5 in IMWC in 3 years)? I can’t see successful (top 20 WTCS) young ones jumping ship. Of the over 30 year olds, some of them seem too fragile; half are relatively weak bikers, compared to today’s top ten middle and long course WPro athletes.
Name names!
What makes you so biased Knibb just walks into IMWC 2025 onwards and wins?//
For one thing, Knibb just doesnt walk into any race unprepared. And would she be odds on favorite, of course she would. Just have to look at her whole history up until now, especially with a much harder and cooler ride than Kona, and the dramatic improvement in her running. I suppose if one could say she walked onto a race, it was last years Kona. Her first ever race longer than a half distance, first ever Kona, and with just a few weeks to up her shorter distance training to get ready. Think going an 8;30+ for all of that and 4th in the best field ever, was a pretty good showing…
But yes, Lucy is one of the few that are the class of long distance, think you can throw Hang in there too. But Knibb is just a phenomena in womens racing right now, heading towards GOAT status if she stays on this trajectory. If they both pitched up at Nice, who do you think the oddsmakers would give favorite status too? Now if it were Kona again, I would say pretty even odds for those two, maybe the nod to Lucy for her history there and ability to handle the worst heat the island has to offer…But it is not a stretch to consider Knibb the favorite in any race out of the Olympic Games as the odds on favorite, and even there she has put herself in the conversation. That’s pretty remarkable to have every distance covered, and now a shot at an olympic medal in a completely different sport too…
So not a knock on Lucy, but a nod to perhaps the greatest woman this sport has ever seen in the making…
For sure Taylor in her rookie year at Ironman showed that she has the ability to win the IMWC and obviously has so much room to improve (likely now nearly reaching her aerodynamic potential) But to crown her WC from 2025 onwards is naive in my opinion.
LCB went into Kona last year off the back of an eight week no running with a moon-boot from her broken metatarsal fracture. She raced with a torn calf (maybe that was stupid, but open for debate) plus she had an undiagnosed Celiac disease. To say we have seen the reigning world champ at her best is just simply incorrect.
What about Mathews? Hasn’t yet proven what she is capable of at championship level, if Mathews + Knibb come into T2 together at 140.6, my moneys on Mathews every time.
“ LCB will not have the watts to stay with Knibb once caught, even if she tries, unless Knibb, as you moot, is “cautious” to Hawi.â€
Ajax Bay Oct 4, 23 1:19
You talk so confidently for someone already proven wrong.Au contraire mon frere, and thanks for trawling. 8 months ago I was exactly ‘right’ with a very very clear caveat.
Knibb told us post race that she had, on advice, deliberately set a limit on the power she would go up to (see my comment above). Consequently she didn’t catch LCB who, btw, was having even for her an excellent bike (remember she’d been given a good thrashing by Gentle in Singapore on the bike only a few weeks earlier). Then she (LCB) capped that with a personal best run (by ?5 mins) which she needed to do to stay ahead of the charging Haug. Further back Knibb ran her very first marathon. Knibb was cautious: it was her first full distance ffs.
But to crown her WC from 2025 onwards is naive in my opinion. //
I dont think that is what anyone here is doing, at least I’m not. This is why we have the races, no one knows who will win on the day. What I’m talking about is just the pre race odds, which I think others here are doing. It is stupid to say so and so is going to win any race, we know anything can happen on race day to upset pre race favorites. Like I said, who will the oddsmakers make favorite at Nice if they both pitched up??
And as to Kat, yes she is another up and coming phenomenon in the womens field. But is not like she hastent been racing regularly this past year. Knibb shows up to races and wins, usually by a lot. Kat shows up with potential, and does well sometimes, other times not so good. You are right in that she has the potential, but Knibb has realized that potential already and is consistently at the top. Basically on paper she is unbeatable, but that means nothing come Raceday when those paper results have to be proven again and again…
Knibb was “cautious†capped her watts and still faded on the marathon.
LCB was “reckless†and it payed off, but it cost her a torn calf muscle.
Your point about her racing Singapore weeks prior and getting schooled by Gentle only proves the point I’m making, her metatarsal injury had set her back. To turn that form around in six weeks from Singapore to Kona is testament to what she is capable of, but in no way is six weeks enough to turn around such an injury, so clearly we haven’t seen the 2021 70.3 version of LCB perform over the 140.6 distance yet. Nor have we seen the best version of Knibb over that distance.
My point is, if they (Knibb + LCB) both turn up healthy and on top form, then we are in for a battle. I think it’s premature to assume Knibb just walks away with it.
Knibb was “cautious†capped her watts and still faded on the marathon.
LCB was “reckless†and it payed off, but it cost her a torn calf muscle.
Your point about her racing Singapore weeks prior and getting schooled by Gentle only proves the point I’m making, her metatarsal injury had set her back. To turn that form around in six weeks from Singapore to Kona is testament to what she is capable of, but in no way is six weeks enough to turn around such an injury, so clearly we haven’t seen the 2021 70.3 version of LCB perform over the 140.6 distance yet. Nor have we seen the best version of Knibb over that distance.
My point is, if they (Knibb + LCB) both turn up healthy and on top form, then we are in for a battle. I think it’s premature to assume Knibb just walks away with it.
Perhaps we are actually agreeing after all.
A little pedantic, but she tore her calf while training before the race.
Injury aside I don’t know that healthy LCB can beat healthy AG at a t100. Just a different distance. And for that reason, I think LCB still goes into Nice as the favorite even if Knibb goes. I would still put Haug over Knibb too. Unless the water is too cold.
Yes, I agree. LCB was probably injured in training due to “rushing†to return to fitness in time for Kona after a metatarsal injury. Lack of running leads to a lack of resilience in run training, one would assume.
We have yet to see LCB at her peak form in T100, as she has never prioritized the 70.3 and T100 distances before 2024. Her 70.3 Worlds win in 2021 was arguably the best 70.3 performance since Ryf’s dominance. Knibb was slower in her dominant performance on the “same†course in 2022, with wetsuit aid and an easier run course with considerably less elevation compared to 2021. Plus, Lucy raced Kona two weeks before the 2022 race, so she was presumably fatigued. Kona has always been the goal for LCB, rightly so after so many second-place finishes.
AG and Knibb are at the top of the T100 division, with a healthy Haug close behind. It will be fascinating to see AG, Knibb, Haug, and LCB (in her 2021 70.3/T100 form) all together. Hopefully, we will see that at the grand final, though it’s questionable if LCB races IMWC.
She has the option to do 2x 70.3 to validate… she is choosing to do the 140.6 instead…
Yep! Let’s hope she doesn’t do a Haug and leave her legs at a silver tier QF race. On the other hand, less logistics with 1x race compared to 2, and it’s the IMWC race course so probably a good as course recce as you’ll ever get.
Her 70.3 Worlds win in 2021 was arguably the best 70.3 performance since Ryf’s dominance. Knibb was slower in her dominant performance on the “same†course in 2022, with wetsuit aid and an easier run course with considerably less elevation compared to 2021. Plus, Lucy raced Kona two weeks before the 2022 race, so she was presumably fatigued. Kona has always been the goal for LCB, rightly so after so many second-place finishes.
AG and Knibb are at the top of the T100 division, with a healthy Haug close behind. It will be fascinating to see AG, Knibb, Haug, and LCB (in her 2021 70.3/T100 form) all together. Hopefully, we will see that at the grand final, though it’s questionable if LCB races IMWC.I don’t think we’ll ever see LCB in her 70.3WC 2021 form ever again.
They are all contracted to race the T100 GF. Not to do so will drastically drop an athlete down the final ranking (other poor results can be discarded, one of the reasons for Knibb (sensible woman) racing on Saturday, but the GF score can’t). The way it’s going, bar Knibb, all 6 top full distance athletes (plus Lee and Hering in the conversation, I suggest), will be racing Nice on 22 September, Ibiza 7 days later, and then getting stuck into two more T100s (19 October and 16 November) before the GF. Then a fortnight to get down to Taupo.