Yes, and/or that. I think Gentle running her down in Singapore was a wake up call that at this distance, beating Ash or Knibb isn’t in her wheelhouse.
Her 70.3 Worlds win in 2021 was arguably the best 70.3 performance since Ryf’s dominance. Knibb was slower in her dominant performance on the “same†course in 2022, with wetsuit aid and an easier run course with considerably less elevation compared to 2021. Plus, Lucy raced Kona two weeks before the 2022 race, so she was presumably fatigued. Kona has always been the goal for LCB, rightly so after so many second-place finishes.
AG and Knibb are at the top of the T100 division, with a healthy Haug close behind. It will be fascinating to see AG, Knibb, Haug, and LCB (in her 2021 70.3/T100 form) all together. Hopefully, we will see that at the grand final, though it’s questionable if LCB races IMWC.I don’t think we’ll ever see LCB in her 70.3WC 2021 form ever again.
They are all contracted to race the T100 GF. Not to do so will drastically drop an athlete down the final ranking (other poor results can be discarded, one of the reasons for Knibb (sensible woman) racing on Saturday, but the GF score can’t). The way it’s going, bar Knibb, all 6 top full distance athletes (plus Lee and Hering in the conversation, I suggest), will be racing Nice on 22 September, Ibiza 7 days later, and then getting stuck into two more T100s (19 October and 16 November) before the GF. Then a fortnight to get down to Taupo.
T100 is a nonsense thing, otherwise why are all these people going whoops, need to make sure I do enough Ironmans and qualify for world Champs. Or was Cube like “hey um, we don’t care about Moritz Events Championship”.
** I would give the top-10 at 70.3/140.6 Worlds a buy each year into the next year with no validation required.//**
You do understand why WTC does this, dont you?? They dont really care that much about the individual athletes beyond the fact that they want them to race “Their” races. That’s why both series are set up to severely limit the cross over potential except in super rare circumstances of the couple bomb proof athletes. IT is not in their interests to have them do less racing in their races. So many hard choices are/ have been made this year for the athletes, and folks that could podium in each of the series will be absent from the top end of the results because of the commitment it takes to get there…
I think it is too bad for us fans of the sport, so many classic match ups are just not going to happen because of this. Like how great would it be if Lucy were in SF this weekend and not think about some validation race? But we are just like the Pros in these decisions, not really considered when these decisions are made to try and tie athletes to one series or set of races…
So true. But I think they now could (but they won’t) do what is proposed by dcpinsonn. Ironman now have their series which takes care of the ‘attracting athletes to their races’ part. We also now have a robust hierarchy of long distance triathletes thanks to the PTO world rankings. All athletes within the top 30 (or something) of the PTO world rankings by a certain date get automatic entry in the Ironman World Championships. Then the remaining 20 spots are either discretion (could go to wild cards, or athletes that have done well at Ironman series races, or still subject to qualification races). Would be a lot more athlete-centric system and make sure the best triathletes make it on the startline.
All athletes within the top 30 (or something) of the PTO world rankings by a certain date get automatic entry in the Ironman World Championships. Then the remaining 20 spots are either discretion (could go to wild cards, or athletes that have done well at Ironman series races, or still subject to qualification races). //
Is this really true, because I have not heard of this?? As far as I know, you qualify for Kona and Nice through Ironman qualifiers, and have not heard a ranking has any bearing. But perhaps it is just that I have not heard this yet, but seems like big news…
As I pointed out, both series want the top athletes to race their series, so have made it very hard to do both successfully. You do qualify for the PTO races through their rankings, and the final based on the series. Imagine a few wild cards will come into play as some will not be able to pitch up in the end for various reasons. The only crossover I see is that Ironman races do count in the rankings, and the bigger ones are nearly on par with their counterparts in the T100. So as far as that goes, PTO has not excluded pros from moving up there who dont do their races, which is a healthy thing for the pro side of the sport.
No news, just me agreeing with you on Ironman’s motives but pointing out that they now may have more room to be athlete-centric with the changes made already (Ironman Series) and the existence of a relevant hierarchy of long course triathletes (the PTO world rankings). These things didn’t exist when Ironman set up their system of qualification for championship races (for pros).
Looks like Lucy CB will be throwing her hat in the ring after all. Plans to qualify for Nice and 70.3 worlds
I can’t help but think she is unsure if she can win T100 and is hedging her bets.
Or Ironman offered her a boatload of cash to race Nice. Lots of coordinated announcements today - IM posts, podcast, etc.
I think it’s the fact that she sees a clear path to the win now. Sodaro is in rough shape. Haug seems to be struggling (although she didn’t know that for sure, but maybe had inside info), Ryf is not racing well. Moench is out. So to Lucy maybe this is a race between her and Philipp.
Why pass up that chance. I’d also guess Frodeno talked to her and set her straight on priorities. No one will remember his PTO win. They’ll remember him being the Ironman world champion though.
I think it’s the fact that she sees a clear path to the win now. Sodaro is in rough shape. Haug seems to be struggling (although she didn’t know that for sure, but maybe had inside info), Ryf is not racing well. Moench is out. So to Lucy maybe this is a race between her and Philipp. Why pass up that chance?That’s an interesting take though I’m sure LCB won’t underestimate any of her main competition. Look at how Ryf bounced back in St George after an inauspicious start to 2022. You didn’t mention Knibb’s absence (perhaps because I noted that earlier). I reckon LCB does not consider Philipp much of a threat. However I would add Matthews and maybe also Hering into the mix. Lee will be in Nice too.
I think FOMO and cash are the two main factors: plenty of ‘easy’ dosh to be made in Nice (and also Taupo if still fit to race) - she’s a professional.
In January she was a central figure with Brownlee in London for the T100 Launch, so she succumbed to the temptation for brown-nosing and played the ‘shall be concentrating on the World Triathlon Long Distance Tour world championships’ (T100) card, with a bit of the ‘Nice is nice but Kona is real’ shading.
Now she’s realised that the IMWC in September can be raced without prejudice to T100 success and she can repair her IRONMAN bridges (I still love you, was just playing hard to get).
Also in January still concerned with pre-Kona injury (and racing on it) aftermath, made sense to limit her season’s scope. Now injury free and with two excellent T100 scores, she has assessed she can miss SF and one other and still be right up there in the Persian Gulf in November. Simultaneous validation for Taupo a bonus.
Having said all that, this is off thread topic: LCB has chosen to race a non-IM Pro Series race to validate as opposed to actually racing any of her competition.
It’s not like it’s any non pro race. It’s the same course as the WC. That’s the smartest move for someone targeting the WC.
Get points or get recon. Take the recon.
You’re right about Lee and Matthew’s but they’ve also shown themselves to be less consist than LCB. So I think from her perspective, while it’s no cake walk, I can’t imagine a better time for her to show up to a WC.
It’s not like it’s any non pro race. It’s the same course as the WC. That’s the smartest move for someone targeting the WC.
Get points or get recon. Take the recon.
This assessment is correct, and we can prove it with a bit of math
If we assume that LCB is really only targeting the WCs, then she could either score 2x 2500 points or 1x 5000 points (assuming wins) to validate, plus up to 6,000 + 3,000 for the WCs (or maybe 5,600-5,800 + 2,700-2,800 from podiums) . Either way, she’s capped at 14,000 points, but more realistically ~13,500 unless she storms away with wins everywhere.
Every pro who is focusing on the Pro Series is going to do at least 2x IMs + 3 70.3, if not 3x IMs - so even a middling pro would likely outscore her 13,500 point total.
Taking Danielle Lewis as an example, she’s probably someone who could be Top 10ish - she’s ahead in the standings mostly because she’s already raced 4x and has 8900 points to date. If she does 2x more IMs and drops Oceanside she’d likely land an extra 3,300 x 2 (her point haul from Texas), less Oceanside = ~13,900. There’s a bit of upside here for Lewis if she races the WCs.
So unless LCB wants to do another 2x 70.3s as part of the mix, she’s likely relegated to no better than 10th on the IM Series standings, or $10,000. But she gets $5,000 anyway from being up to 50th (which is likely just from WCs). So net impact of racing Nice vs Lake Placid is $5,000, which she might spend on travel anyway.
I think that as mentionned on the Pro Triathon News podcast, sponsors play a big part. Winning the T100 Tour has no value / meaning for the general public. Whereas many people know about / of Ironman. So the bonus for a Nice podium must be quite higher than for a T100 win. And it is important to keep sponsors happy !
Still no starting list for IM Austria which is strange and somewhat unprofessional just a week before a race. Yet i just noticed that Thorsten has the ratings out. It happened before for IM ZAF and he said that the starting list were sent to him…
Just checked and Sam Long is predicted as 12th behind Tim Van Berkel (who is 40 and ranked 89 in the PTO ranking ) finishing 26 minutes down from predicted winner Barnaby. I get that the numbers are based on past results but unless SL blows up, he should not be 12th and is expected to finish in the top 5 given his current form. He just has to ‘cool his jets’ on the run like Frodo said about Alistair in Miami !
I think that as mentionned on the Pro Triathon News podcast, sponsors play a big part. Winning the T100 Tour has no value / meaning for the general public. Whereas many people know about / of Ironman. So the bonus for a Nice podium must be quite higher than for a T100 win. And it is important to keep sponsors happy !
Are the sponsors changing their tune all of sudden? I didn’t listen to the podcast, but it seemed clear from the initial T100 launch and the interviews that she did that being all in on T100 was something she was content on doing exclusively (and therefore presumably her sponsors as well)
I think that as mentioned on the Pro Triathon News podcast, sponsors play a big part. Winning the T100 Tour has no value / meaning for the general public. Whereas many people know about / of Ironman. So the bonus for a Nice podium must be quite higher than for a T100 win. And it is important to keep sponsors happy !I didn’t notice that PTN particularly regurgitated “sponsors play a big part” (assume you infer or Pat said) in influencing/deciding which goals an athlete chooses.
Of course this is a factor but, I assert, much less than:
the potential revenue from the various races, both individual and cumulative (scores for EoY series bonus)
the opportunity to reinforce an athlete’s reputation for success in ‘world championships’ for future sponsorshipbeing part of the conversation on SM and generallythe competitive urge to be in the best (SOF) races to beat others.
The T100 tour is the world governing body’s designated ‘World Championships in Long Distance’ series just as the WTCS series crowns the World Champion (short distance). Ironman is a race provider whose business model includes offering/designating a single one of its races as a self-acclaimed (and widely recognised) world championships and uses the Pros to give that event (now split to two venues) credibility.
So while the T100 Tour has low visibility/name recognition for the general public (ffs it was only launched in January), sponsors are not concerned with “the general public”; their focus is brand recognition and potential buyers of their product (others on here can articulate this far better with far more insight). The T100 World Championships in Long Distance Series will gain increased prominence for several reasons:
the best racing the best several times a year - a fantastic and much improved (tv) spectator opportunity/experience (as opposed to previous IM and 70.3 broadcasts without close racing because of the dilution of strong athletes across many races)
serious kudos /rep benefit for winning/achieving podium on those races (see Lee, Keulen, Visser)opportunity for excellent world ranking points (rep as well as EoY bonus)a season narrative: IMWC is one and done (public perspective and close to truth, sure there is gaining IMWCQ but low viz)great (some) iconic venues on multiple continents, consistent distance but varied terrain and environment, including conditions suitable for endurance racing (unlike Kona)more prize money: T100/PTO = $7M v IM (7 races (say) + series bonus) $2 +$1.7it’s the World Championships in Long Distance’: the winner can (and will) call themself champion.
“many people know about / of Ironman” And? Have sponsor bonuses increased for the IMWC? (idk btw, I am not an agent). If there’s a limited fund for bonuses a wedge will have gone to T100 performances so other bonus elements (including IMWC and 70.3WC) will have reduced.
“So the bonus for a Nice podium must be quite higher than for a T100 win.” Obviously, but there’s only one IMWC Nice and there are eight T100s. Is it 700+% higher? idk but I doubt it.
It’s not like it’s any non pro race. It’s the same course as the WC. That’s the smartest move for someone targeting the WC. Get points or get recon. Take the recon.So unless LCB wants to do another 2x 70.3s as part of the mix, she’s likely relegated to no better than 10th on the IM Series standings, or $10,000. But she gets $5,000 anyway from being up to 50th (which is likely just from WCs). So net impact of racing Nice vs Lake Placid is $5,000, which she might spend on travel anyway.Good analysis. Think patterns will become clearer once Boulder and Cairns have been raced.
Smart move for LCB: train, recce and race in Nice. Presumably they/she wanted to do the recce before sharing that, despite clear and very public statement of intent/focus earlier in the year, she has after all decided to race IMWC.
I’m not suggesting LCB has any interest in the IM Pro Series (as Tim has illustrated: it needs 3 races besides Nice and Taupo). IMLP or IM Vitoria would both be non-starters for her as too close to T100 London which I judge she would love to win: not just a home race but just down the road for this TOWIE lady.
But it’s noticeable (well to me anyway) that every athlete AQ’d for Nice has chosen to validate at a non-competitive race (or take 70.3 route):
Sodaro - IMNZ
Ryf - IMSA
Philipp - two 70.3s (assume because she is racing Roth)
Haug - IM Lanza
LCB - IM Nice
They are all T100 contracted athletes so have had to fit stuff round Miami/Singapore/San Francisco (with varying success: see Sodaro, Haug, Ryf)
The men AQ’d for Kona otoh are mostly racing in competitive (IM Pro Series) races (but Kona is several weeks later):
Laidlow - IM Vitoria (no pretence to be concerned about ‘showing up’ (as in actually racing) for any T100 races before Dubai)
Blummenfelt and Iden: Frankfurt (but neither T100)
Lange - Texas (he’s the only one with an IM Pro Series focus (as well as IMWC); not T100)
Odd one out is Ditlev who had already validated at Florida (and is racing Roth and all the T100s except Las Vegas)
A few points to add to this.
1.) Keep in mind that it has already been litigated as to whether or not IRONMAN can award a triathlon world championship. It can. It’s why IM is its own signatory to WADA, for instance – it is its own pseudo-governing body. You can thank the old Les battles from 2005 as to that one.
2.) Sponsor cash can be as much, or greater than, any cash awarded for race performance and the seasonal bonuses.
3.) Sponsor contracts will frequently dictate the value of those bonuses and athlete schedules will change accordingly. IRONMAN branded events are always given top-tier status. Other race brands are usually second or third tier – unless the athlete specifically negotiates them up a tier. That probably isn’t the case for any athlete sponsored by brands who are also sponsoring T100 – but I’ve seen it happen, too.
Oh, and IMWC / 70.3 WC performance is almost always 8-10x the value of a regular race bonus.
4.) What you’re talking about is general impressions versus segmented impressions – as in, are we getting the “right” eyeballs versus just eyes generally.
Chase McQueen racing in Boulder. Is this his 70.3 debut?
I think that as mentioned on the Pro Triathon News podcast, sponsors play a big part. Winning the T100 Tour has no value / meaning for the general public. Whereas many people know about / of Ironman. So the bonus for a Nice podium must be quite higher than for a T100 win. And it is important to keep sponsors happy !I didn’t notice that PTN particularly regurgitated “sponsors play a big part” (assume you infer or Pat said) in influencing/deciding which goals an athlete chooses.
Of course this is a factor but, I assert, much less than:
the potential revenue from the various races, both individual and cumulative (scores for EoY series bonus)
the opportunity to reinforce an athlete’s reputation for success in ‘world championships’ for future sponsorshipbeing part of the conversation on SM and generallythe competitive urge to be in the best (SOF) races to beat others.
The T100 tour is the world governing body’s designated ‘World Championships in Long Distance’ series just as the WTCS series crowns the World Champion (short distance). Ironman is a race provider whose business model includes offering/designating a single one of its races as a self-acclaimed (and widely recognised) world championships and uses the Pros to give that event (now split to two venues) credibility.
So while the T100 Tour has low visibility/name recognition for the general public (ffs it was only launched in January), sponsors are not concerned with “the general public”; their focus is brand recognition and potential buyers of their product (others on here can articulate this far better with far more insight). The T100 World Championships in Long Distance Series will gain increased prominence for several reasons:
the best racing the best several times a year - a fantastic and much improved (tv) spectator opportunity/experience (as opposed to previous IM and 70.3 broadcasts without close racing because of the dilution of strong athletes across many races)
serious kudos /rep benefit for winning/achieving podium on those races (see Lee, Keulen, Visser)opportunity for excellent world ranking points (rep as well as EoY bonus)a season narrative: IMWC is one and done (public perspective and close to truth, sure there is gaining IMWCQ but low viz)great (some) iconic venues on multiple continents, consistent distance but varied terrain and environment, including conditions suitable for endurance racing (unlike Kona)more prize money: T100/PTO = $7M v IM (7 races (say) + series bonus) $2 +$1.7it’s the World Championships in Long Distance’: the winner can (and will) call themself champion.
“many people know about / of Ironman” And? Have sponsor bonuses increased for the IMWC? (idk btw, I am not an agent). If there’s a limited fund for bonuses a wedge will have gone to T100 performances so other bonus elements (including IMWC and 70.3WC) will have reduced.
“So the bonus for a Nice podium must be quite higher than for a T100 win.” Obviously, but there’s only one IMWC Nice and there are eight T100s. Is it 700+% higher? idk but I doubt it.
Being a Moritz Events Stan is unbecoming. PTO is doing a drug deal with the ITU because it cannot be a race promoter. It’s essentially a broadcast production company…except that they’re contract that out, they don’t own cameras and directors aren’t theirs. Ironman is a member of the ITU.
The ITU made the drug deal with the PTO to make their long distance world championship race meaningful (it’s not, it’s weakest “world championship” in the world).
At the end of the day most of these contracts say Ironman in them and NO ONE knows what the PTO or the T100 is, it has no brand value.
Ironman World Champion? That will carry on the wire.
The only reason these pros care is because of these 6 figure contracts.
But to crown her WC from 2025 onwards is naive in my opinion.
I don’t think that is what anyone here is doing, at least I’m not.“On current trends if Knibb races IMWC from 2025 onwards she’s going to win. LCB returns to bridesmaid status, at best.“
Ajax literally just said thatDid you enjoy the race just now? What conclusions could we draw?
In case you missed it:
https://youtu.be/kP76i0Y-9jk
If you (as a WPro athlete like, say, LCB) hoped to win IMWC (again) in future, would you choose this year (no Knibb, unless she wins Olympic Gold/medal and gets an IM golden ticket) or wait till 2025 or beyond?
And NB my caveat: “on current trends”.
I wouldn’t be surprised if IRONMAN try to persuade Knibb to race in Nice, after Paris. Having raced in San Francisco her T100 contract only requires two more T100 regular season races (Las Vegas and Dubai, skipping Ibiza 7 days after Nice). An Alpes-Maritimes training camp in August/September?
Fun race today @ 70.3 Boulder! Foley impressive on the bike. Salthouse runs to victory in the last mile. Recap here.
Fun race today @ 70.3 Boulder! Foley impressive on the bike. Salthouse runs to victory in the last mile. Recap here.Thank you for that excellent recap. Don’t think it’s easy to access a video review and of course everyone was watching the T100.
Think this is the first and last time this year that there’s a direct clash between a T100 race and an IM Pro Series race.
?? Do Escape from Alcatraz and 70.3 Boulder normally clash/same w/e?
But the T100 GF (Friday) and Busselton (Sunday) are 40 hours apart (so effectively a direct clash).
Otherwise no other IM Pro Series start list will be so emasculated.
Ibiza and Nice a week apart (affects WPro). Kona and Las Vegas also a week apart (affects MPro). IMLP and London a week apart.