Exactly what I meant.
Google is your friend, they raced last year at the IM World Champs, Laidlow put 12 minutes on him. Not sure why you think it’s even close. He backed it with a 2:42 marathon to place 5th, while Long was 14th.
I did not think to google that, dont want to be too AI dependent. Sam has been getting record splits this year, and roth is a faster course. Maybe would be more interesting to push laidlow, who else do you think can?
Gotta love a late entry.
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woah - I think better than having Laura. Glad they found some actual competition for Kat.
Mark M won’t be happy, his payday is in jeopardy 
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Without Philipp this was walking towards an ITT if Matthews raced ‘to form’ in her debut Roth.
Thorsten had Matthews head to head with Philipp but with the latter’s withdrawal, winning by 20 minutes ahead of Davies (winner of Almere two years ago and winner of IM South Afica in April). Davies predicted to be ahead for most or all of the bike (with or without Langridge) but losing time on the run.
Add LCB into the mix and we have two ITTs between the two best Brits (LCB a previous Challenge Roth winner (2019) in 8:31).
Ryf rode 4:23 in 2023 and Haug rode 4:27 in her 8:02:38 ‘world best’ in 2024.
So predicted times on Sunday:
LCB 47 and Matthews 53 swim. 4:20 and 4:27 on the bike. LCB 13 minutes ahead at T2. Matthews will be looking to run 2:41. Can LCB run sub-2:54 after a hard bike? Davies 51 swim and circa 4:30 bike and then slower than both on the run.
A Brit 123? A win in 8:06?
Meanwhile an epic battle in the men’s ahead:
Laidlow for the win, for me. KB, Schomburg, Lange, fight for the podium.
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If Lucy finds any help in the swim/first bit of the bike I don’t think Kat will come back.
I still take KB in the men 
I would say Caro Pohle is a strong podium contender.
It’s her first full…
Good job Bob.
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Laidlow is slicker CdA wise than Long and has a 400 W plus FTP, they are about the same size. Moreover, Laidlow is an IM world champ and long course specialist. I don’t see how Long could come close at full distance bike ride. 70.3, maybe. I don’t see Long racing this, field is too strong so he will struggle to break top 15 like in Nice last year, I respect that, why do a race that won’t make you any money.
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Who? Like Knibb is going to gatecrash the party? LCB gets zero ‘help’ in any and every swim and is the fastest biker, with the only help being motorised - hopefully not on Sunday.
Agree Pohle could be in the mix with Davies swim/bike. I was expecting her to break through in 2025 but it just didn’t happen: poor 2025. She has not managed to return to her 2024 high point of double 70.3 wins (Tallinn and Zell-am-See). So far this season her Challenge Champs win best so far. We’ll see how that extends to a full distance on Sunday.
For LCB this will be her first finish in a competitive full distance race since her Kona win in 2023, nearly 3 years ago. Reece has reckoned that she needs a hard marathon off a hard bike as preparation for Kona, and the fatigue and sweat and tears spent trying to win will, on balance be beneficial for Kona. And ‘Roth, baby’!
Temperature forecast to be lovely, even fresh before and after the swim (it was 38oC there yesterday).
pascal frankens for the bike for LCB? she could close the 7 min on him
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Good thinking! Thorsten estimates he’ll swim 55 and the gap MPro-Wpro is 7 minutes (Challenge Roth schedule).
Franken is the third slowest MPro swimmer (estimate) and be expected to ride at the ‘right’ sort speed (4:24 last year).
LCB must be feeling good and performing well in sessions to jump into a full after Lanza. If anything I thought we might see her jump into a 70.3 or 2 before Nice, but not do a full gas full to avoiding risking world champs. But it’s awesome to see her race, I just really, really hope she doesn’t pick up an injury that hampers WC prep.
I don’t think the gap will be as large as predicted in T2. Swim seems right about where you’d expect. I don’t think LCB will put 7’ into Kat though. I feel like Kat’s predictions are skewed by a few races where her bike has gone completely MIA, like Kona last year. When Kat is on (Texas and Hamburg last year), she’s ridden 4:20 on fast courses. I know she didn’t ride her best at Elsinore, so I don’t think she’ll have the best bike, but also I doubt LCB’s bike is up to the 4:20 prediction from her Lanza time. So net-net, I think they’ll be pretty close on the bike with each doing an ITT, maybe LCB gains a couple mins but not 7.
I’d think it would be very hard for LCB to win without a 10’+ buffer off the bike. Outside of Geelong, Kat’s run has been so consistent even under fatigue the last few years, and with temps not expected to be as hot you’d have to think she’s set for a 2:40 or close to it. Which would require LCB to run her IM PR sub 2:50 (I think she has 1 * sub 2:50 from the short IM Nice course). I don’t think she’s in that kinda shape yet coming back from the surgery. But that’s why you race! And having LCB there is going to guarantee an exciting/interesting race, vs Kat ahead by an ungodly amount of time early in the run.
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For Roth, I would think she will hammer the swim and bike then play it by ear on the run, possibly running a hard 25-30k before turning it down pending Kat.
breakfast with bob starts with the biggest contender
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Große-Freese has jumped onto the Challenge Roth start list after a poor bike Frankfurt 93.1 and a jog in run.
FP swimmer.
Winner of both Ironman Austria and Ironman Copenhagen in 2025 and #6 here in Roth last time (7:40).
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Magnus Ditlev also just announced he is doing Roth, wtf is going on!?
I hope something was just off on sunday for him otherwise i do not see it ending well for him in Roth? What is he trying to gain, KB will smash him, but just want some rust off and tey to bile with Sam/KB?
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Tomorrows announcemant…Macca,Lothar and Jurgen on a team
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