3:20 Marathon - Too Optimistic?

Triathlon Forum
21

As a 4 time IM finisher and 3 time marathon finisher with PB’s of 3.32 closely followed up by a 3.35 , 8 mnths later and a disasterous 4.38 blowout 14 months after my PB…I subscribe to the idea that lots of long aerobic runs are critical and that speed work is at best , icing on the cake.

Additionally I found that of course the weekly 2-2.15 long run was crucial with at least 4 or 5 other runs included ranging from 70-105km’s per week.

I think if I never blew up , due to poor pacing in the last marathon I would have gone sub 3.30 possibly close to 3.20.

Good thread and good luck !

Terry

22

Wow. I wish I started with your times - very fast for only your 2nd year of racing.

I have a few questions for you regarding the McMillan calculator:

  1. Should I use my 2008 1/2M or 10K time as the input for the calculator? Or are you saying I should do a 10K time trail and use that as the input? My 10K is faster (relatively), thus the paces are faster when using the 10K input (versus 1/2M). Maybe I should use the 1/2M as the input, since it is closer to race distance. My 1/2M input calculates predicts a 3:20 marathon while the 10K predits a 3:12.

  2. Should I use the McMillan paces for all of the phases of my training? These paces seem a bit fast for the early base phase of training.

Also, I just picked up Pfitz’s Advanced Marathoning book.

23

Thanks - never thought my times were that fast from reading this forum and others. :wink: And I just re-read my note and 1:39 HIM should read 1:39 HM. Less impressive that way - and way less impressive if I were to talk about the HIM times!

Anyway, take this with a grain of salt because I’m not that familiar with McMillan paces (I imagine they’re very similar to Daniels VDOT paces stuff). Then again, most of this is kind of generic advice.

More recent times are always better - who knows how your performance has atrophied (or improved) over a period of time. Of course it depends on whether you were active, in maintenance mode, chilling on the couch, etc. - you probably have a good feel for that, so it might be fine to use those. But the best way to know is to go out and test it.

Longer runs are always more predictive. The best, of course, being a 26.2 mile trial at race pace. :wink: While most people would say using a 10k trial is acceptable, in your case, given that you know you don’t have a great linear relationship (yet…) between your times as you increase distance, I would maybe say go with the HM time for now. I say this because you have already added volume and frequency and don’t want to pile too much on too soon. I also say it because the 3:20 prediction lines up nicely with a time you would be happy with.

But the other part of the answer is “listen to your body”. If you can run the paces (with a full week’s mileage) and it isn’t kicking the crap out of you, then maybe you can run with the faster paces. But most programs (I’m not as familiar with McMillan’s) are designed to bend you but not break you, so there is not a lot of wiggle room to “add more” by speeding up paces if you are following them to the letter.

As for the using paces for all phases question, you should use those paces until a time trial proves you are running faster and can move up paces. If they feel way too fast now, maybe they are too fast (and it could be several factors adding up - i.e. added mileage and frequency). In Daniels, for example, he says you can move up anytime a trial/race shows an increase in pace, or at a few pre-determined points in his programs (the assumption being you will improve some for sure over the course of a program).

If you want to see how Daniels paces line up with McMillan’s you could play with this and compare:
http://www.runbayou.com/jackd.htm

And if you want a good write-up on pace calculators and why they are usually wrong, read this:
http://mysite.verizon.net/jim2wr/id64.html

(but the Reader’s Digest version is: because you’re not running enough miles). It’s not perfect, but has proven to be remarkably accurate in my limited experience (and also in the less limited experience of people who referred me to it).

Craig

24

Not so easy to give a yes/no answer, but given you have 12+ weeks left, there’s lots you can work on.

  1. Are you carrying extra weight around? Make a huge difference in running, especially if you carry it on your legs.
  2. Try shorter runs at MP pace. 10k distance should feel comfortable, 21k should still feel doable (substitute a longish training run)
  3. Yasso 800s are a sort of good predictor (see bartyasso.com) although I found my 800 and marathon times didn’t match unless I was also doing a longish mid-week run of 8-12 miles in addition to the short stuff and the weekend long run.
  4. Do you have good form and a strong core? Big difference between holding good form for an hour versus 3 hours. The longer you can be effiicient, the better…also another reason to do a longer mid-week run.

Good luck and let us know how you do…

25

Craig,

Thanks for all of the great information and the links to the Daniels website and pace calculator article.

Its interesting that the two calculators bring me roughly the same marathon finish time (within a minute). But, according to the pace calculator article, these predicted times (based on my 10K) are too optimistic based on the miles I’ll be training. Unless, that is, I run 80-100 miles per week! According to the article, if I average 60 miles per week my predicted marathon time, based on my 10K, will go to 3:17 (from 3:12).

Last year my season was built around Ironman Wisconsin, when I began training in February and ran the 1/2M two months later. The 10K was run in July, after 4 months of tri training. After IMMoo (September 7th) I really didn’t train at all - besides doing a 5-mile race 3 weeks later. I continued my laziness until early December, when I began my marathon training.

This has been my pattern - I typically take a couple months totally off after my last race of the season (or my “A” race). I know I should be doing at least something during the off months, but so far I haven’t done that.

Thanks again, for your help. I plan on doing exactly what you say - continue my training using the 1/2M paces, and monitor where I am - adjusting if I need it. At this point, I plan on going 3:20 in May.

26

Scott,

I’m carrying around a little extra weight. I’m 5’11" and weigh about 173. Last year I got down to about 163 race weight. I think my ideal race weight would be around 160, possibly a little lower. I have a swimming background, thus a bit bigger upper body. I don’t really want to lose all of the upper body.

Since 2005, I don’t believe I’ve lost any weight due to running. I believe my swimming has led to the weight loss. It seems that the running has shifted my weight - more muscle and less fat.

I really haven’t done any core exercises - unless you count swimming. I know it comes highly reccomended - but haven’t done it yet.

As far as my form - the only adjustment I’ve made is how I hold my arms - I adjusted them downward. I picked this up on a triathlon video series - the Science of Triathlon with Joe Friel. I’ve had a few veteran runners look at my form and they thought it looked OK. Maybe it would help to get a video and have someone analyze it.

Thanks for your help, Scott.

27

“Treadmills have there place, but you can’t equate times to road racing. A 7:38 pace on a treadmill, IMO, is like 8+ on the roads.”

That is so friggin stupid as to be almost unbelievable that someone believes this.

28

There’s a bunch of good stories here of people going from 3:50 or slower to 3:20 or way under that. I’m right now in that kind of boat trying to do a 3:30. My take on all of this is all of these books and plans will work, they are all reasonable.

But there’s something to be said for just sheer, raw mental ruthlessness in keeping a pace goal which probably has much to do with training but there exists an aspect, an irrational, animalistic gene, an aspect in your being, you may need to tap into.

You may have in you what I will call your Running Dog Instinct, (“RDI”). Its not written about in books. Basically, its kind of a human version of a pavlovian instinct which arises in dangerous events, fleeing, or sporting events. Out of shape dogs have this. They will follow another pack of dogs chasing after something, as far as they can go even if it almost kills them. Why is this? We do not know, really. A close term describing this is probably adrenaline for fear of starving or death.

I started back running after a 2 year lapse, and I think I ran maybe 3 weeks with a just horrific, oprahesque twelve mile hard run, to cap of my pathetic training. Showed up at a half on a dare. And I decided to just try to follow the pacer guy showing 1:45 around, no matter what. Now, I had no business doing that, because I think I was probably running a 9:30 mile that last few weeks, having gone Clydesdale again.

At any rate, despite at many moments of almost giving up, and throwing in the towel, thinking about just going into Oprah Mode, I brushed it off, oh, about every 19 seconds.

I followed them all the way to mile 11 or 12. It was all animal. RDI.

I told myself never to look down at my watch, just don’t let the guy with that sign get more than 15 yards away from me. My feet were on fire. Blisters, dehydration, you name it. So, I got to mile 12, and I was heaving and about to pass out but I made it in 1:46 something.

I have no idea how or why I did that.

So, that got me back into running, and, after about 4 months of running 50 miles a week, I’m reading these damned running books again, so I go do a time trial 16 mile run, and I BARELY beat THAT TIME to mile 13, when I was out of shape.

There’s something to be said for showing up in moderately poor shape but with a stern, determined animalistic, competitive mind, and one not warped over meeting or not meeting training pace schedules, Jack Daniels Formulas etc, or volumes. Your legs are loose, you aren’t tight from all the hammering for months on end. I can’t explain it, its some kind of instinct.

29

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30
  1. Go out and hold stead 8s and nail a 3:30. Then make your second goal marathon time a sub 3:20.

That’s exactly my plan. I want to qualify for Boston sometime in the next year or two, but have not run a lot of stand-alone marathons recently. My current PR is 3:44 but that was a somewhat difficult race and I didn’t train properly (no speedwork). I don’t want to jump right out and try the 3:20 qualifying time so in 3 weeks I’m shooting for a 3:30 in the Mercedes Marathon to test the waters. If I can hit that then I’ll put swimming and biking on the back-burner after IMCDA and shoot for Boston.

31

You must be from SE based on your race calendar. So you must know that Mercedes is very difficult course! Not as bad as ING Ga Marathon, but some significant hills. Nevertheless, why not go for the solid 8s at Mercedes, and then do Huntsville in December to get your 2010 BQ time. Huntsville’s Rocket City Marathon is flat, and fast. Atlanta buddy did IMF last year, then did Huntsville in 3:02. He did ING GA last year in March in 3:22. So a nice 20 minute improvement based on having IM fitness, and because Huntsville course is much friendlier then Atlanta.

Good luck

32

Wow - you really sucked it up for that race. I’m not sure if I have that much mental strength and/or pain tolerance to do something like that. But I would guess that most of us have it in us somewhere - if we had the motivation.

What I’d like to do is combine the Running Dog Instinct and great training into the perfect race. Who knows how fast one could go?

33

I’m thinking while it may be possible to use what you call RDI to push hard in a half with very little training, doing so in a marathon would be a much different story. It seems likely you may be able to go 18-20 miles and then you would melt down and either DNF or walk slowly the remaining miles. As I write this I realize that someone probably was able to do such a thing, but it would likely be extremely rare.

Regardless, doing the proper training seems like the best course of action. That could involve doing things a bit differently than were previously done in order to get past a plateau. Repeating the same training programs over and over in hopes of better performance seems like a path to frustration.

34

Hey Paperchase, Man that is a huge feat to get towards the 3:20 Mark. I’ve banged out about a 3:30 at best after a 4 marathon year. The 3:20 can happen if you run miles…miles…miles… So find all fenatics that run 60-75 miles weekly. The way to get miles in is to do doubles. And you’ll need to do a 22 miles near marathon 3:20 pace. Hey even if you do the appropiate milage and your off on marathon day. You still will have prepared and do the best marathon anyway. Check out Crow Athletics for a fenatic runner that gets bunches of knarly miles. Won’t be easy, won’t be pretty, but true grit can get you there. I’m training for a 3:20 Boston Q’er 2010.

35

Thanks RHetzer.

Good luck on your 3:20 quest, also. Maybe we’ll both make it and see each other at Boston.

I think I’ll try some doubles - should work into my schedule better.

36

I take huge issue with #1…Sure weight has a good deal to do with running, but training has a lot more to do with it. Put the miles in and you’ll be fine. Build your speed and your body adapts.

I’m 5’10, 210lbs and ran a perfectly paced 3:14 to BQ in November.

37

A lot of folks think you can go out and run a marathon for Boston and that’s that. Sure there are exceptions to the case, but in most instances it’s a process.

The best analogy I use is golf.

It’s really easy to go from a 50 handicap (5:00 marathoner) to a 25 handicap (4:15 marathoner) if you put in some time and gain the fitness.

It’s harder to go from a 25 handicap to a 10 handicap (3:40 marathoner) and still harder to go from 10 to scratch, which is someone’s Boston time.

I ran my first marathon two years ago in 3:52 and then BQ’ed this year with a 3:14. In between I ran nine other marathons, one IM, and man other races.

To qualify for Boston I simply trained and trained and learned to run at race pace for at least 20 miles. If you can’t get to Mile 20 in a marathon on pace, then you aren’t going to qualify for Boston. Those who would tell you to run your 20 milers at 30 seconds slower than BQ pace are talking out of their asses.

Bob

38

You must be from SE based on your race calendar. So you must know that Mercedes is very difficult course! Not as bad as ING Ga Marathon, but some significant hills. Nevertheless, why not go for the solid 8s at Mercedes, and then do Huntsville in December to get your 2010 BQ time. Huntsville’s Rocket City Marathon is flat, and fast. Atlanta buddy did IMF last year, then did Huntsville in 3:02. He did ING GA last year in March in 3:22. So a nice 20 minute improvement based on having IM fitness, and because Huntsville course is much friendlier then Atlanta.

Good luck
I am in the ATL as well. I ran the Mercedes half twice so I know there are a few hills, but ING GA is where I had my PR. So I know I can run other courses faster. I was actually planning on doing Rocket City Marathon a couple years ago but for some reason never did. I still need to see if I can run 3:30 before trying 3:20. I’m IM training now so I don’t want to over do it. My biking is suffering because of this marathon. What local races do you do? I’m always doing Peachtree, US 10K Classic, Possum Trot, Silver Comet 10K or Half, Gulf Coast and Atomic Man. I just did my first Hogpen Hillclimb. That race is a bastard!

39

“If you can’t get to Mile 20 in a marathon on pace, then you aren’t going to qualify for Boston. Those who would tell you to run your 20 milers at 30 seconds slower than BQ pace are talking out of their asses.”

In my training 20 milers I never ran anywhere close to my BQ pace - NEVER! Obviously what you did worked well for you, but other ways work well for different people. Anyone who thinks there is only one method/plan for marathon training is talking out their ass.

40

First of all, did I say there was only pone way? Nope, I didn’t. In fact my statement indicates a differing opinion.

Second, if you read it correctly, my statement was “If you can’t get to Mile 20 on pace, then you aren’t going to qualify.” I’d hold that up to a truism moreso than anything else. You can do whatever you want on a long runs, but if you can’t get to Mile 20 on pace, then you aren’t going.