3:20 Marathon - Too Optimistic?

Triathlon Forum
1

Here is my background: I began running in 2005 and since then have finished 4 open marathons and 1 more as part of an Ironman. My best open marathon is 3:58, and last year my IM split was 4:14. When training for the marathons - I only trained about 3-4 times per week with a max of 30-35 miles per week.

I am currently in week 7 of a 21 week marathon training program. My regimen is based on Mcmillan’s 6 step training program, with an 8 week phase of aerobic/base building, 3 weeks of speed work (400’s, 800’s, mile repeats), 8 weeks of strength (hills, tempos, intervals, steady-state runs), with a 2 1/2 week taper. Unfortunately, I missed about 1 1/2 weeks of training early on. And now I’m a bit nervous if I’m biting off more than I can chew. Last week I went 44 miles (14 mile long run) and this week should be 48 (16 mile long run).

The reason I think 3:20 is within my reach is based on some races last year - when I ran a 40:59 10K and a 1:36 1/2 marathon. However, I know that my training will need to be more focused and disciplined to drop 28 minutes. I expect my weekly mileage to get up to 55-60 miles in the peak weeks.

I’m getting a bit nervous now because my goal pace (7:38) is a struggle on the treadmill (2 miles at this pace is difficult).

Do you think my 3:20 goal is too optimistic?

2

My 10k and 1/2 Mary times are the same as yours (30 sec and 1 min faster) and my best marathon is 3:26. I feel that was the best I could do at that time because I almost even split and had nothing much left at the end. Are you too optimstic? If you are it’s not by a whole lot, but the thing that sucks about marathons is you have to start the race with your goal in mind. If it turns out you are overly confident the price is huge but you have to take the risk.

3

treadmill?
get yourself outside and do some real running!

ok, more important, there are a few things you can do.
as things go along, do a few things that’ll help you estimate your proper race pace. None of those ‘predictors’ are perfect (neither are previous races) but all help you gather info: fast-finish long runs; yasso 800s; tempo runs.
it’s also worth deciding what your goals are and what risks you’re willing to take. How much does a PR mean to you? A 3:38 means a 20 minute PR and a lot of people would really be overjoyed by that. But if you’ve got your heart on a 3:20… are you willing to say, 3:20 or bust? (As in risking, 3:20 or DNF?) that’s something that you have to decide for yourself.

4 open marathons + an IM seems like a lot since 2005, btw.

4

If goals aren’t a bit optimistic then they are lame =)

Just watch your pacing during your training, make sure you do the work, and give it a try.

5

treadmill?
get yourself outside and do some real running!

.

That always makes me laugh. Thanks! :slight_smile:

6

Thanks for all of your good responses.

I suspect that I am just getting a bit nervous at this point, and I think you’re right, jackmott, its time to do the training and see how things progress. Soon I will have a better idea of where I stand.

It just so happens that 3:20 would qualify me for Boston. And I suspect that as long as I don’t completely blow up, I should be able to get a PR - based on the training that I’ll do. To me, its worth it to shoot for a stretch goal.

Bob, thanks for your thoughts - I just read the article on yasso800’s and willgive them a try.

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Yes, I think you’re overly optimistic. I base that on a training plan that appears to focus too much on speed and not nearly enough on endurance. Building endurance is far more than a long run once a week or every other week. IMO, your high mileage weeks should be a minimum of ~3 times the race distance and you should do that consistently over a period of 6-8 weeks. That would put you in the 75+ mpw range. Most of that mileage should be at a pace at least 60-90 seconds per mile slower than GMP. Yes, still do the tempo runs and the fast finish longish runs, hill work, etc. But do far more just easy longish runs than you’re doing.

Last year I went from a marathon PR of 3:53 to 3:26. I needed 3:35 to BQ. My 10K and HM times are not as fast as yours so I think you have the potential to hit your goal time if you can sufficiently build your endurance. While it’s not impossible to have a faster marathon on relatively lower mileage, IMO it makes it more difficult. I tried it that way in 6 previous marathons and never came close to a BQ.

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I think its very possible.

I also ran my first marathon in 2005, and ran a 4:20. After that, by best marathon was 3:59 as well (ironic). My best IM marathon split was 4:20. I typically ran ~25-30 MPW. Did a half marthon last spring in 1:33, and concentrated on a marathon for this past Oct. peaking at 40 MPW. I ended up running a 3:19.

Don’t go by the treadmill pace. That was always slow for me. Run outside. Also, if you’re feeling tired and worn down, take a few days off. I mean totally off from exercise. It helped me to bounce back physically and mentally.

Hope this helps. Good Luck!
Rob

9

I think you may be right.

In the past, my training was sufficient to get me to the finish line, which was my original goal - to finish a marathon. My strength and endurance was lacking and that prevented me from improving. I just wasn’t running enough.

I am already at 48 miles per week - and for the 8 week strength phase (where my mileage will be the highest), I think you’re right - my mileage should be higher than 55.

10

Great job on your 3:19. There is hope for me :slight_smile:

I’ve been running a lot on the dreadmill since we had a cold snap of -20 degree weather (Wisconsin). However since then it hasn’t been as cold - and I should be outside more. I need to find some better routes where there is less snow - sometimes it feel like running in deep sand.

Thanks Rob.

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I feel for ya. Northeast PA hasn’t been too warm either. 20s feel like a heat wave.

12

75 mpw is extremely high mileage for most working people. I managed to run 3:08 on 40-50 mpw and my 10k times are only a couple of minutes faster than Paperchase’s. Consistency and your long run are critical – speedwork is not (it’s the icing on the cake at best). If you run 6 days/ wk building to 50 mpw over 6-9 months with nearly all of it aerobic (slow to steady) you’ll largely see what you’re capable of with a normal life.

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Your goal should be to make it to the marathon injury free and rested and race well. The time is the time. We all have goals which is fine but don’t let them stress you out. You need to step back, realize that you’ve already almost doubled your mileage - plus intensity. You’re lucky if you stay healthy. Think long term. 21 weeks plans are fine but if you stay healthy and run consistently - you can crush 3:20 easily and even go sub 3 or faster. You need consistency, patience, and faith.

Dave

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Dave,

Thanks for the encouragement.

I agree with you on the importance of staying healthy and injury-free. It reminds me of the Woody Allen quote about success - 80% is just showing up (at the starting line).

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I have been doing marathons (and tri’s) consistently for 10 years or so after a 20 year lay off (dd did my first marathon at 18)

What I have found is this - which is intended encourage you:

I think it takes the body a couple of years to adjust to the training and rigors of the marathon. I think your goal is within reason, with the right variations and consistency in training. It takes several attempts to just learn how to run a race of that distance. More importantly, it takes your body a couple of years to develop the capacity for the volume, and more importantly, the ability to recover so you can do the frequency of the quality workouts. A 3:20 is going to require consistent speed (everything is relative). Therefore, it is not just about the miles, but the ability to sustain the pace…which is going to take time for your body to adjust to.

When I completed my first full, I absolutely marveled at the bodies ability to adjust to that volume. Prior to that, I would never have conceived that you could get the body to that point - but it is truly amazing what distances we can train ourselves to go…given the correct preparation over a period of time.

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Your PR’s:
10K - 40:59 (about 6:35 pace)
1/2 marathon - 1:36 (about 7:20 pace)
Marathon - 3:59 (about 9:09 pace)

I’d suggest upping the miles/week as well. It’s natural your pace drops off the longer you go, but IMO based on your 10k and 1/2 time, you should be running a faster marathon. I suspect you just don’t have the miles on your legs (you started running in 2005?). Nice thing about endurance training, every run is like a deposit in the bank, and over years it really pays off.

I’m getting a bit nervous now because my goal pace (7:38) is a struggle on the treadmill (2 miles at this pace is difficult).
Treadmills have there place, but you can’t equate times to road racing. A 7:38 pace on a treadmill, IMO, is like 8+ on the roads. So if you’re struggling to go marathon pace on a treadmill (for only 2 miles), then I’d say (as of now), your goal time is too lofty. But I would never question your “heart”, or desire. For me, the best motivation is someone telling me I can’t do it!

So up your mileage, and include more long runs. You might not have the base to hit 3:20 right now, but with SMART work, and 3 months of training, along with your motivation to succeed, you’ve got just as good a chance as anyone. Good luck!!

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75 mpw is extremely high mileage for most working people. I managed to run 3:08 on 40-50 mpw and my 10k times are only a couple of minutes faster than Paperchase’s. Consistency and your long run are critical – speedwork is not (it’s the icing on the cake at best). If you run 6 days/ wk building to 50 mpw over 6-9 months with nearly all of it aerobic (slow to steady) you’ll largely see what you’re capable of with a normal life.

I agree that 75 miles is a lot and it’s not an easy thing to do to get it all in. I also agree about consistency and maintaining 40-50 mpw for many months would be very helpful. I also indicated that it is not impossible for him to reach the goal on lower mileage. However, given a history of not really being anywhere close to the goal while likely using similar lower volume plans, it seems like the key missing ingredient is endurance. IMO, it’s difficult to build endurance on lower volume plans, especially for people who have struggled at in previous marathons.

I don’t have any concrete evidence, but from what I’ve observed from friends and in various forums - people who are running higher volume are typically not having any difficulty getting a BQ time. I can’t ever recall a post from someone running high volumes asking whether or not they could BQ, but rather the questions are more along the lines of going sub 3 or even placing in their AG. Everyone I personally know who has run higher volumes for an extended period has BQed regardless of their age. In fact for many of them, the higher the volume of easy running, the faster they were able to go in the marathon. A friend is an ultra runner who typically runs 80-100 mpw, almost all in the 9-10 min pace range. He does no real speedwork at all, yet he ran a 2:50 marathon.

I put that theory to the test last year. I bumped up my volume and ran almost all my runs at an easy pace. I did no formal speedwork at all. Most of my runs were done around 9:00-9:20 pace. The result was that in races my speed increased in every distance from 2 miles to the BQ marathon. At age 52 I set PRs at every distance I raced.

I think many people get freaked out about higher volume because they envision it as being the same as what they did at lower volumes, just more of it. They also may be freaked about the time it takes or that it will beat up their body too much. All valid concerns. However, in my experience it isn’t necessary to run that much speedwork or intense stuff when doing higher volume. The longer easy pace runs do not tend to beat up the body and they are easy to recover from so they can be done almost every day. It does eat up good chunks of time though - a couple hours a day when warmup and cool down are included.

Anyway, not every plan will work for every person. Some do well with lower volume/higher intensity, while others do well with high volume/low intensity. He seemed to not be achieving his goal with the former so I suggested the latter.

18

If your BQ time is 3:20, then you must be in the 40-44 age group. I’m in that group too. IMO and also according to Brad Hudson in the Run Faster book, masters runners should focus on endurance plus intensity. You must have the endurance to run for 3 hours and 20 minutes. You must also have the ability to hold a 7:38 pace for that distance. Your 10k time is fast enough to suggest that you might be able to run 3:15 or better. But your half time suggests more like a 3:25-3:30, and your existing marathon PRs certainly don’t give you any confidence that you can run a 3:20.

I think you have two paths.

  1. Go out and hold stead 8s and nail a 3:30. Then make your second goal marathon time a sub 3:20.

  2. Really train hard this time, lower your half marathon PR during training, keep your mileage around 50-55 mpw, and focus on your three very hard workouts a week so that the 7:38 pace feels more comfortable.

With plan #1, you could build some comfidence by hitting your “A” goal of 3:30 which would be a huge PR, and you could roll into marathon #2 and try for the BQ time 10-12 weeks later.

With plan #2, you are taking a much greater risk that you can’t hold 7:38s for all 26.2, and you end up really slowing down the final 10k and ending up with something slower than 3:30.

Are you willing to wait for the BQ time until marathon #6 because I think that is the more conservative route and having a 3:30 in the bank would be a huge mental (Confidence) booster going into marathon #6.

But if you want to go for it, then I think you still have a ton of time, 14 weeks, to really make the training happen and get the 7:38 where it feels more comfortable. Just realize, as one of the other posters said, that if you crash and burn, then walking those final few miles can really cost you in the overall time department and it will be a huge mental disappointment as well when you do start training for #6. Good luck

19

Thanks, everyone, for your input.

I need to give this some more thought.

20

Very good points above. If you are a looking for another data point and some other random thoughts:

-I ran a 1:39 HIM in 2007 - my first race of any distance. It would be a stretch for me to run a 41:00 10K, although perhaps I could if sufficiently motivated (i.e. bear behind, or beer in front).

-In 2008, I trained for an early July Half Ironman, and then continued from that training base for a mid-August Marathon. It was not optimal training - the cross training required took away from miles on the road and in general I didn’t do nearly enough mileage. Typical week was ~25 miles, peak week ~40 miles (with a 20 mile long run). It was also not a very aggressive plan in terms of speedwork, etc.

-End result? I ran a 3:33 on a pretty hot day and definitely didn’t feel I left it all out on the course

I’m currently training for a May marathon and have bumped up the mileage (gradually) and will be peaking at 55mpw this time. My goal (of course it’s early days) is a 3:20 with a stretch goal of 3:15 (BQ for me) if things are looking up in a few months.

It looks to me like you have the most important component - run lots. You have good mileage and a good chunk of success is just getting lots of time on your feet.

Random advice - despite the temptation, do not run your long runs too fast because it usually ends up making your short runs too slow and then you’re spending too much time in no-man’s land (and increasing the risk of injury). Enter your current pace (NOT your goal pace) into the McMillan pace calculator and train to those paces - not your goal paces. Do a 10km time trial to establish current fitness (more is better of course, but 10k is reasonable). Don’t be tempted to run faster than your paces regularly. Lots of people will say “train slow to race slow” and while there may be a grain of truth in that, it’s oversimplifying for effect.

Don’t sweat missing some workouts here and there - it’s long term consistency that’s the key, and don’t sweat if something feels hard now - you are building to a goal that is a ways out and it takes time to come together. Trust the program and put in the miles and then closer to race day, see where you’re at by running a time trial (again, 10k will suffice, although more is always more accurate for predicting), and adjust expectations accordingly.

Also keep in mind that on race day, you will have reasonably rested legs from the taper and adrenaline from the race, which can give you a bit of a boost (but can’t make up for a lack of proper preparation - especially as it relates to endurance).

I would also recommend grabbing Daniels Running Formula and Pfitzinger’s Advanced Marathoning just for good general background.

Good luck and keep us posted!