On top of that, I’ve got to think that by following Jess through the more technical bits enough times, Taylor’s bike handling skills and confidence ought to bump up a notch or two. Saturday’s weather looks great in terms of temperature, humidity as well as road dryness. I’m excited that they’re starting late enough to make for easy viewing on the east coast of the U.S.
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Gutted for Jess, maybe 70.3 Nice, wasn’t such a good idea!
It’s not a warehouse, but a massive fair/conference centre/etc. and yes it’s there.
It’s not an industrial estate either, there was just a lot of roadworks and construction works going on, should be slightly better this year.
Water temperature this year is around 19.5-20.5 degrees, it has been quite cold after some scorching weeks. It’s gonna warm up again towards the weekend though.
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I actually thought this was not a bad bike course with all the roundabouts and the run atmosphere was good . it did look a bit 3rd world but laidlow did put on a show for the bike.
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you should see the massive potholes at the roundabouts…the year that rained it was like bambi on ice for the age groupers.
Run course is really boring with a bunch of laps out and back next to where the swim is, again not great surface with cobbles and stuff, little uphill to get into the indoor bit for the lap/finish. Insanely congested for age groupers.
Waugh Learmonth LCB and GTB is a ferociously strong swim group. I really doubt Knibb can stay on those feet. But Knibb will put pedal to metal (after losing time in T1 to put socks on) and ride up to them. One or more will hang on for a few laps but be dropped. Learmonth’s run in Vancouver was better than for a long time - and a one off. Derron took 10 minutes (in 18km!) out of her and that’s on form for her 70.3s: 1:26+ speed. I assume GTB will not yet be capable (enough) on the TT bike to hang with the other three, and new to draft illegal and race ranger. We also don’t know how she’ll manage 18km (vice 10km in a standard distance drafting) off two hours on the bars. We saw Coldwell last year do roughly this.
I can see Derron and Gentle riding together, as in Dubai, and then aiming to run through.
For me:
Knibb
LCB
Gentle
As said upthread, good explanation of the the wildcard and contender wheeze on the ‘participants’ page - linked (eg for @BDoughtie )
NB Contender rankings are based on 5 results not the 3 in the ‘main’ PTO Rankings.
McDonald called up from the wait list
I mean, GTB has won 70.3 Bahrain just 10 months ago…it’s not like she didn’t show prowess on the TT bike.
I hope she goes really well. But think she was wheel sucking (legally and no RR) Pohle and Neubert in Bahrain all the way. Ran super well off it though. The 180s either end of lap and the kinkier roundabout negotiations will suit her bike handling skilz. I expect a Coldwellesque performance.
From what I understand, he would have been close to the top of the waitlist but his federation didn’t put in his registration in time, and that’s how he ended up last on the waitlist. T100 or World Triathlon basically put him back to where he would have been if the federation hadn’t messed up, but I guess they didn’t bother updating the wait list.
Edit: probably not the first, and I’m sure it’s not going to be the last time something like this happens, with federations now handling middle distance registrations (for T100) when they really don’t have any incentive to do so. It’s just extra work for them.
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my understanding is that the same problem happened with Josh Amberger who is still coming to London to support Ash but because the federation didn’t put him in the list he wasn’t eligible for a WC.
Perks of becoming World Triathlon 2.0 I guess 
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I was going to comment that I bet Meg McDonald hadn’t taken up the offer to race 70.3 Krakow last weekend (even though she came 2nd)
But she’s jumped on the start list ANYWAY. And why not. Free travel, free hit
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Good job Monty is still in bed! (Knibb swims with anyone!)
I actually think Knibb can hang onto this group, I think GTB will struggle herself on the swim to hang on with LCB and Learmonth.
Learmonth has well documented injury issues, so not sure what you mean by a one off run?
GTB is a complete unknown really, she wouldn’t surprise me that much it she was contending for the win, equally if she end up around 7-10th.
If im a betting man which I am, I reckon she’ll be around 5th-8th.
Did someone drop out at the last min?
Kate Curran I presume
Knibb won’t get dropped by GTB and Waugh. She was also with the Learmonth and LCB group in Vancouver. Derron might lose that group and probably GTB is also at risk of losing the feet given her swim in Hamburg and comments about lack of swim form.
I can’t remember if it was SF or Vancouver, but I think it was the latter, where Knibb said having Learmonth guide her through the technical sections was really helpful. I imagine Knibb wouldn’t mind working with her again.
I can see London playing out similar to Vancouver. Knibb hangs on to LCB and the other fast swimmers, which opens a solid gap to Derron and Gentle that Knibb extends on the bike. The gap ends up too large for either JD or AG to make up on the run.
Didn’t Derron race a full-distance IM four weeks ago? I’m not sure if that will take the edge of her run or if four weeks is enough time to recover.
I think there’s way more firepower in the swim here that there was in Vancouver. In vancouver Taylor managed (barely) to hang on, I think here she’ll really struggle.
In Vancouver the front group was LCB, Kingma, Learmonth, Spivey, Knibb, and Lawrence, separated by 10 seconds with Knibb 7 sec down to LCB. Who is the added firepower that will make it so that Knibb can’t keep up? GTB? Waugh? I’m genuinely asking, as I don’t really know all the women’s swim capabilities.