2024 70.3 Worlds in Taupo - predictions and race day

I guess I question Ironman’s motives for a pro series. If T100 folds, does IM keep their pro series going? They end up being the only game in town. They may still reduce the number of pro races and have a slightly higher purse if they can get age groupers to come of local races with no pro field (which is what we age groupers seem to do, we don’t go based on pro field anymore from what I see). So why would IM pay pros for a series if they are not jacking up revenues?

It seems every bunch of years IM tries to get pros to do a ton of their races through a series or points qual for Kona then they back away then they come back. I think points based KQ was bad because it really wore down the athletes. The athletes themselves think they can “do it all” (ex Lucy from this year), and then it catches up. Enough examples over the last 50 years that show humans can’t really do those pointy end performances over a long period without breaking down. Does less TSS off shorter bike times and less wear from supershoes help? Yes, but 7:45 of racing the heart and organs are still working really hard doing all that processing its not just mechanical

For what it’s worth this far out, the weather forecast for the women’s race is looking very nice while they’re calling for a rainy day for the men.

Women’s race morning forecast

Men’s race morning forecast

I’m interested to see if Hayden can catch up to the front pack swim train out on the bike before T-2. They certainly will be highly motivated to leave him as far behind as possible. There’s certainly potential for a real dogfight at the head of the men’s race.

YMMV

Hugh

I don’t know how technical the bike course is but a sunny day should make Knibb happy after Paris Olympics TT

It actually is Kyles hometown. Hayden is from 110km Northeast of Taupo.
I’m looking for a 1-2 from them :wink:

It’s not very technical at all but yes I think it will take a while for her to shed the trauma from that day that seems to be still holding her back a good bit in tighter corners.

There are like 3 corners on the whole ride, and one of those is a T junction with an uphill approach. Knibb will be saying ‘adios’ once she hits the climb out of the Waikato valley (10 miles) and next see another athlete after her first turnaround on lap 1.
@cyclenutnz has shared the RwGPS route (NB ignore slight wiggle at 25km):

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Fixed the wiggle, don’t know how that got there.

I’d agree. After the river there is nothing to disrupt TK

Yes, I do. As a fan of the sport, they make it a lot more interesting to me. T100 more than the IM Pro Series, but both had the effect of getting more top athletes racing each other throughout the year. It was much less interesting to me as a fan when all the best athletes avoided each other most of the year.

The NFL/NBA (sorry non-US) parallel I would draw is most of the teams playing all their regular season games and some playoff games against only a few other teams from the league and the rest against minor league teams. I’m guessing fans wouldn’t be too into that.

It was also odd that many athletes of widely varying ability could all claim the same title of Ironman or Ironman 70.3 champion throughout the year at all the different races. That made it confusing for fans about who is actually good/better/best in the sport. Now there are pretty clear tiers and winning a bronze/silver 70.3 against a weak field can be clearly understood for what it is. Mid-lower level pros I’m sure loved this flattening of the hierarchy for easier marketing.

I didn’t/don’t really care about IM’s world championship races any more than each T100 race this year. In my view we’ve replaced 2 main races per year with 10+ main races per year over the past several years. Way better.

Keulen has dropped off the start list.
Otherwise there’s no DNSs in the rest of the top 20 men and women.

  • “A lot more interesting”
  • “T100 more than the IM Pro Series”
  • “top athletes racing each other throughout the year” as opposed to the top athletes seemingly avoiding
  • “Way better”
    Well said

Bob Babbitt dropping Taupo interviews - Knibb’s:

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That’s a fun and informative interview. If I heard it correctly, Taylor might even be interested in doing both the time trial and road race at the LA Olympics. She’s picked some great coaches in Julie D. and Dan L. that seem to be giving her very sensible guidance.

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Yes, it definitely sounded as if TT cycling and even riding in a peleton was an aspiration with the goal being the TT in a home Olympics (as opposed to racing tri). I suspect that racing road is going to be needed as US Cycling will for sure write the selection policy to avoid the AQ for TT taking a slot and that rider not being competent to ride the road race.
Can’t help thinking her personality is going to make riding in a team (Lidl-Trek?) a challenge on several levels, not least: so many people close and so noisy (in interview).
Also interesting to hear her perceptions of her Paris takewaways from hitting the deck 3 times in the TT and the effect on the way she then raced her individual and the MTR for the USA silver (coulda/shoulda been gold).
Not much focus on Saturday, though: the nature of the bike course (and not raining) is surely a fit for her, if she needs that advantage.

I love how Wilde seems to be a lot of people’s favourite, Wilde occasionally has problems pacing himself on the run in SC (even at supersprint distance) , I’ll be surprised if he manages to nail it at his first big MD race.

She watched the person to whom she voluntarily gave up her Olympics RR spot go and win the gold medal with it. You don’t think that sticks with a person…

I’m expecting the men’s race to be an all out gunfight from the get go. It’s going to be super exciting to see how things play out.

Here’s the updated weather forecast for the women’s and men’s races. Both days are now looking to have very friendly conditions in terms of temperature, wind and precipitation. This close in the forecasts ought to be pretty accurate.

Women’s race day forecast 12/14

Men’s race day forecast 12/15

That’s a lot more civilised for both races: cooler for the women’s run and looks like the rain forecast for Sunday has ‘blown over’.
Wilde talks about the weather in the Pro Tri News open session (fast fwd to 19 minutes when the audio becomes OK:

Pictures (fast fwd to 17:30):


Currently 9th! Could these predictions get me the the top spot :pray:

On other forecasts I see it getting up to 24C both days around noon with humidity around 70% (that should help bike times) maybe a bit humid on run, but not too bad