2024 70.3 Worlds in Taupo - predictions and race day

The start lists have been published (54 on both lists):


plus (higher bib numbers (selected)): Bishop, Stapley, Nieschlag, Schoeman.
WPro:

plus (higher bib numbers (selected)): Meißner, Thek, De Vet, Buckingham, Jewett.
and some insta chat:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DC2KTYTve6_/

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Can you change the title to something more specific like “startlist - Ironman70.3 Worlds”

Versus the nebulous title (because someone asking about wave starts, or pavement quality, or accommodations or equipment is talking about a different topic?

And start a new thread for other topics related to worlds (like race day thread etc)

@Ajax_Bay thanks for adding startlist to the title. I wonder if Derron can get closer to Knibb. Knibb has more time on the bike and Derron in theory has more time on the run, but that’s if she’s actually running faster than Knibb.

What do you think Wilde can do ?

Bogen seems to be coming into great form based on T100 Dubai

I think that the Dubai bike course worked in Julie’s favor due to it’s technical nature but even with that being the case, Julie had to work her butt off to come in off the bike in the same zip code as Taylor. At that point, the bill for the uber hard effort on the swim plus bike had to be paid by both Ash and Julie as Taylor was able to cruise it in with a reasonable even effort . As Taylor so often says “we will see”.

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Stacked fields, both women and men. Really only missing LCB on the women’s side, and MVR on the men’s.

Some to watch, at least I’ll be interested in them (some obvious, some maybe less):

Knibb, Gentle, Derron rivalry keeps going.
What can Solveigh Lovseth do against these three at this distance? Same for Lena Meissner.
Can Elizabeth Bravo bike well enough to be in contention for a top 5?
Very keen to see what Caroline Pohle does here too.
Are slightly older ex-ITUers Jodie Stimpson and Valerie Barthelemy a chance at a good result?

Bogen and Margirier will most likely have to bike the house down, they probably don’t want to make it a running race with Wilde, Geens, Bergere.
Kyle Smith might want to form an alliance with Bogen and Margirier too.
Some great wildcards coming from ITU racing: already mentioned Wilde, Geens and Bergere, but also Casper Stornes, Max Stapley, Henri Schoeman (to push the swim), Tom Bishop, Joao Ferreira (the bike likely to be his undoing), Justus Nieschlag and Ari Klau (just kidding).

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Incredible start list. Deepest field of the year, hopefully this leads to some great racing to watch.

I think Hayden Wilde is winning this with over a minute to spare.

Wilde
Smith
Bergere

Knibb
Deron
Findlay

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It feels like Taylor took her time in T1 and let a few others get ahead and overbike on purpose and took her time while they buried themselves and built up lactate and once the pass was made they may have done their damage to themselves with no chance of bouncing back in Dubai heat to put down the runs they are capable of. Of course we can say in Lahti cool she did the same and plenty of hard charging runners had a chance but they never even got close!!!

Heh, I’d like to believe Taylor was that tactical. I think it’s likely she’s just ham fisted when it comes to transitions but wasn’t too bothered by it as she’d catch them anyway.

It’s great that 70.3 Worlds is coming after the T100 “Grand Final” and it has much of the same top racers in the Women’s field. I’m way more excited about this race and course to see how they all perform. Paula Findlay will hopefully be fit to race as she should be more in contention as well given the course.

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I wouldn’t count Stornes and Geens out. Bogen, Margirier and Keulen might have something to say too if they have their day

I suspect Knibb will get a greater gap (than Dubai) out of T2 even with a wetsuit swim.
Buckingham (Hall) will lead out the swim, as she did in London (not that one; in the Serpentine) and neither Gentle nor Derron (nor Matthews fwiw) will be ahead of her as she rockets from the field and up Rifle Range Road. Plenty of ‘scenery’ and minimal technical stuff to slow Knibb down.
Run is two miles longer. Derron gained 3 minutes on Knibb running round the puncheur LLV golf course track but only 4 seconds a mile in Dubai.
And we’ll see sensible temperatures in 18 days so Gentle’s apparent ‘hot/humid’ advantage will not be in play.

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Knibb typically puts on socks in T1 (she did in Dubai) hence why her T1 is much slower than everyone else. Don’t get me wrong, she could probably work on a few things to get faster but its putting the socks on that causes the biggest delta.

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Perez Sala swam with no swim skin in Dubai, but comparing like with like, pulling the socks on is part of the difference but Gentle only lost 6 seconds on Knibb in T2, and put socks on. I shall not review )to be sure) but I recall Derron ran without socks, gaining 11 secs on Gentle and a few more on Knibb.
I think Knibb might have spent time getting ice loaded, both transitions.
Same T1/T2 delta pattern (Knibb v Derron) in Las Vegas.
https://stats.protriathletes.org/race/dubai-t100/2024/results

That’s a fair point but when she’s not putting on socks in ITU she’s still among the slowest at transitions.

Here’s the first Tri247 preview.
Knibb ftw; Matthews for the IM Pro Series $200k; Derron second favourite for the day. See also Simmonds (bit below par in Dubai), Gentle (rather underplayed, I thought; I wonder how her Dubai wobbles will affect her), Findlay, Salthouse also ran (but has won Eighteen 70.3s!).

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ok but in fairness keulen seems to be on the sam long early season peak trainings plan
i cant rember when was his last top race was there anything after sinagpore which he won.

Leo Bergere getting ready for this race:

Sid’s take on the course:

Sun in your eyes for 1200m of the swim:

Originally published at: Defending Champions Knibb, Bogen Headline 70.3 Worlds Start Lists - Slowtwitch News

The final two races of the 2024 IRONMAN Pro Series are nearly upon us, with 70.3 Western Australia this weekend, followed by the 70.3 World Championships two weeks later. And now we have the official word on who will be taking to the starting line in a couple of weeks time to battle for the 70.3 world title — and, in some cases, desperate for key points in the overall Pro Series standings.

Defending champions Taylor Knibb and Rico Bogen will indeed be taking to the streets of Taupo to try and repeat. But they will have a lot of hefty company in the final race of the year, which will determine both the individual championship and the season-long points race.

Women’s Field

Knibb will look to take her third 70.3 World Championship — and there’s no reason to deny her favored status given her dominant 2024 campaign across race series and formats. She’s unbeaten in middle distance this year.

Joining her on the podium last year were Kat Matthews and Imogen Simmonds, and both will be vying to deny Knibb the title. Matthews will also look to lock up the Pro Series title; she sits 257 points back of current leader Jackie Hering, but Matthews has an open score available to her; any decent performance should be enough to have her take down that title. This will be Matthews’ tenth race of the season; she’s been on the podium seven out of nine times this year.

Ashleigh Gentle will look to avenge her loss to Knibb at the PTO Final in Dubai. Gentle is one of the best middle distance athletes in the world, and she is nearly unbeatable in Pacific region races. But Ellie Salthouse is another one to watch — the eighteen time 70.3 champion has taken five podiums (including three wins) this season.

Olympic silver medalist Julie Derron will attempt to spoil the party of the middle distance specialists. In her few races at this distance, she has shown potential, including a victory at 70.3 Switzerland.

The full field is below:

Bib First Name Last Name Country
1 Taylor Knibb USA
2 Kat Matthews GBR
3 Imogen Simmonds CHE
4 Paula Findlay CAN
6 Ashleigh Gentle AUS
7 Ellie Salthouse AUS
9 Julie Derron CHE
10 Jackie Hering USA
11 Maja Stage Nielsen DNK
12 Danielle Lewis USA
14 Alice Alberts USA
15 Lotte Wilms NLD
16 Hannah Berry NZL
17 Els Visser NLD
18 Caroline Pohle DEU
19 Solveig Lovseth NOR
20 Laura Madsen DNK
21 Elizabeth Bravo ECU
22 Giorgia Priarone ITA
23 Marlene De Boer NLD
24 Daniela Kleiser DEU
25 Marta Sanchez ESP
26 Rebecca Clarke NZL
27 Sara Perez Sala ESP
28 Diede Diederiks NLD
29 Tamara Jewett CAN
30 Valerie Barthelemy BEL
31 Lucy Buckingham GBR
32 Fiona Moriarty IRL
33 Hannah Knighton NZL
34 Hanne De Vet BEL
35 Cecilia Perez MEX
38 Grace Thek AUS
39 Julie Iemmolo FRA
40 Nikki Bartlett GBR
43 Sif Bendix Madsen DNK
44 Luisa Iogna Prat ITA
45 Marta Lagownik POL
46 Grace Alexander USA
47 Jodie Stimpson GBR
48 Lizzie Rayner GBR
49 Lisa Becharas USA
50 Gabrielle Lumkes USA
51 Anna Bergsten SWE
52 Lena Meißner DEU
53 Emilie Morier FRA
54 Kristen Marchant CAN
55 Barbara Riveros CHL
56 Amy Cymerman USA
59 Caroline Shannon USA
60 Franziska Hofmann DEU
61 Eloise Du Luart FRA
62 Ana Maria Torres ECU

Men’s Field

Defending champion Bogen has been unable to claim a win following his shock world championship last year. Results have been mixed across racing various race series’ middle distance events. His best finish, though, was second at T100 Dubai; perhaps he’s peaking at just the right time to defend his title.

Two Olympians will look to derail Bogen’s title defense: silver medalist Hayden Wilde and bronze medalist Léo Bergère. Of the two, Bergère has the more decorated history at this distance, having won every IRONMAN 70.3 race he’s started. Wilde, though, will be racing on home turf, and he’s had success here, finishing third in 70.3 Taupō in 2019.

Speaking of those with prior success in Taupō, there’s Kyle Smith. Smith won this race over Wilde in 2019. He won it again in 2023. For Smith, like Wilde, this is a hometown race.

Notably absent from the list? Lionel Sanders. Sanders, who was disqualified from last year’s 70.3 World Championship, suffered a bike crash in training and has opted to put an end to his 2024 campaign.

The full start list:

Bib First Name Last Name Country
1 Rico Bogen DEU
3 Mathis Margirier FRA
4 Keulen Youri NLD
5 Marc Dubrick USA
6 Josh Amberger AUS
8 Hayden Wilde NZL
9 Leo Bergere FRA
11 Matt Hanson USA
12 Matthew Marquardt USA
14 Gregory Barnaby ITA
15 Kristian Hogenhaug DNK
16 Kyle Smith NZL
18 Casper Stornes NOR
19 Braden Currie NZL
20 Jason West USA
21 Ruben Zepuntke DEU
23 Antony Costes FRA
24 Jelle Geens BEL
25 Mitch Kibby AUS
26 Ari Klau USA
27 Nick Thompson AUS
28 Caleb Noble AUS
29 Sam Osborne NZL
30 Harry Palmer GBR
31 Federico Scarabino URY
32 Henri Schoeman ZAF
33 Armando Matute ECU
34 Wilhelm Hirsch DEU
35 Colin Szuch USA
36 Kacper Stepniak POL
38 Mike Phillips NZL
39 Strahinja Trakic SRB
41 Ben Hamilton NZL
42 Thomas Davis GBR
43 Hunter Lussi USA
44 Eduardo Perez Sandi MEX
45 Justus Nieschlag DEU
46 Max Stapley GBR
47 Jack Moody NZL
48 Thomas Bishop GBR
49 Nicholas Quenet ZAF
50 Kurt McDonald AUS
52 Johannes Vogel DEU
53 Michael Arishita USA
54 Jannik Schaufler DEU
55 Gregory Harper USA
56 Dieter Comhair BEL
58 Joao Ferreira PRT
59 Calvin Amos AUS
60 Nicholas Free AUS
61 Marty Andrie USA
62 Martin Ulloa CHL
63 Christoph Mattner DEU
64 Matthew Ralphs ZAF

I thought this was going to be a terrible start list due to location, time of year and how busy everyone has been, its absolutely stacked!

I think its going to throw up a few surprises based on what I’ve just mentioned, any athletes that have peaked and prioritised this race will probably do very well.