The alternative is ?Rider who hands to Spivey with a gap to France and Germany, but possibly with GB, and Spivey/GTB (et al?) have to work together to bridge up to Lombardi and ?Eim.//

I think this is the probable scenario. WIth Rider you just lose the bit on the short run, so could be less than 10 seconds.If you put someone on the team that does not swim well, then you can lose so much more, as in missing groups that motor up the road. And I have said(and you here also) Spivey has the chops to motor up, and even perhaps get someone else to work with her. The whole and only goal of those first 3 legs will be to get to as close to an even start for Knibb as possible.


And it is not inconceivable if they are in the same group that Pearson could hand off 1st just enough to get Knibb clear of the rest, which we know she can swim away from just enough to be able to get to a solo bike. That is the beauty of the relay, even in the small groups that are formed towards the end, usually just one strong person doing all the pulling in the swim and bike, so kind of a TT format in reality. I take Knibb all day long in a tt against the best women in the world. SO get her a 2 second head start and it could be over. Pearson may be the fastest miler in the whole field, hope we get to see it...

Then you don't pay very close attention to the sport. France is in a league of its own but the USA is the reigning silver medalist with 2 (possibly 3 if KZ is picked) members returning with both much improved since Tokyo. GB has the same issue as USA -- 3 strong legs and a big question mark with the 2nd male. Germany has 2 very strong women (whichever 2 they pick) but it, too, will have a relatively weaker #2 male. If you cannot see a scenario with USA beating out 1 of 2 other teams with very similar line-ups, then you need to start looking harder.

I think you forgot who was in those teams in Tokyo...
US got second in Tokyo due to France having Periault underperforming and losing the leaders in her first leg, and Germany having a third bad leg with her second woman.
On top of that, in Tokyo the order was W-M-W-M whilst in Paris it will be men first with women closing.
Whoever you have in the US team for that last female leg, the second man will have lost the top men, and the US doesn't have anyone capable of closing a gap to the likes of Potter, Beaugrand, and whoever is going to be the second German.
Finally, I think there are gonna be some team specially suited to this format such as the Netherlands (they didn't have Murray in Tokyo and still got 4th!), Australia and Italy.
In all honesty, I think US prospects for a medal are low counting both individual and MTR. In the women they either need an attack that sticks on the bike by Taylor Knibb or a miracle run if they choose Gwen (0.01% chance happening), in the men Pearson is nowhere near Yee-Wilde and IMO the french guys + KB will hammer the bike, and he just won't be anywhere near the podium.
MTR as explained above.
Overall, the US has numbers and a lot of top 5 potential but 0 gold medal competitors.

And this is why I think it is so important for US to take a runner for the 3rd female.

I have 'literally' just described a scenario, even with a weaker Leg 1, where the USA is part of the conversation. Reach for those specs!
Whatever the size of gap Rider hands to Spivey, Legs 2,3 and 4 for the USA are only bettered by FRA GBR and DEU.

As for Holland, just remember that Kolkman is ranked #136, that Murray couldn't qualify as an individual and that Kingma seems to have lost her ability to run. And they were the dead last qualifier for the MTR, for a reason.

Hot points:
Usa 3rd female: Zaferes
Usa 2nd male: Rider
GB 3rd female: Coldwell
GB 2nd male: J Brownlee,
France 3rd male: Luis
Italy 3rd female: Betto
Nz 2nd male: Reid
Aus females: Lin, J Hedgeland
Hung 2nd male: Devay

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

you just described a scenario where McElroy (or whoever is chosen) gets easily dropped by the better teams, in the unlikely assumption the US are still with the other teams after 2 legs, considering they all will have better runners than Spivey.
Also, Murray would've been qualified as an individual, if he didn't get the Mixed Relay slot, considering there's a bunch of people from countries without a qualified relay that qualified individually behind Murray - all the way down to Jamie Riddle #66 (Murray is #47).
They weren't the dead last qualifier, as they won Huatulco, and of course MTR has been completely put upside down by the cancellation of a whole 3 races in less than 12 months, without WT offering any other opportunities to race...

Now you are just embarrassing yourself. Pearson won Yokohama (easily I may add) and beat guys like Leo and Luis (and he, too, was blocked by the crash and had to sprint to catch up on the last loop of the bike). Would he have beaten Yee and Wilde if they were in the race? I don't know but it would have been close. It's also not like he can't or hasn't beaten them in A races before. He beat both of them in the Grand Final in AD in 2022. To blindly claim that he "won't be anywhere near the podium" (6th at the Test Event most definitely was "near the podium" too I should add) indicates that you either have no clue about basic facts or just hate Americans and don't want to understand basic facts.

"In all honesty, I think US prospects for a medal are low counting both individual and MTR" was another gem from you. This is a country with Knibb, Pearson and a top 5 MTR and you thgink the prospects of a medal are "low." Given that standard, then every country other than France, GB and NZ must have "low" prospects as well. I am not saying that USA will medal, because it is very competitive, but anyone who has even a slight understanding of ITU would never classify USA's medal chances as "low" given the team USA will send to Paris.

Happy to be proven wrong, but I think USA has a great chance at getting 3 4th places...on the day you never know who performs.
I'm glad you're so confirmed on Morgan, but to date he has proven that he only sticks in the front group when it's 40+ people, otherwise there's a lovely collection of placements between 40th and 50th - proven by him being 32nd on the olympic ranking - 55th Pontevedra, 44th Yokohama last year, 40th Cagliari last week. If anything, it's Yokohama this year the fluke.
I'd like you to remember the distance of the MTR, it's a super sprint, it's not the sum of the times of an olympic distance race.
It's just my personal opinion, that I see at least 3 clear medallist in all 3 races that are not US, simple as that.

you can believe but last year in hamburg rider lost 26 seconds on the run and at the paris test event which was a duathlon it was similar and he was in the lead pack after the bike . so the chance is just as high that the race is over after the first leg.
he lost 3 min on the run on yee last week. 2.15min on the other good runners. and in yokohama it was about 2 minutes on the run on the good runners. so it looks more like 20 seconds

Using 10k run splits is just plain ignorant of what the MTR requires. But you seem pretty confident, want to make a bet?? I will bet if Rider is leadoff, and he comes to T2 with the lead group, he will loose less than the 20 seconds you propose. I've cleaned up on my bets thus far on this thread, you want to take some of that easy money from me??

The relay is a weird duck, we shouldn't have been there last time around, yet we got the silver. Pretty much the same team only stronger, and everyone is writing us off. The talk of Pearson losing ground in the swim, did anyone watch last week where he actually led most the entire swim??? And then he cannot run with the best runners, did anyone see the low 29 10k he ran two races ago?? If there is anyone to run with Yee and Wilde in the open race, it is Pearson. He is arguably the best pure runner in ITU, just hasn't been able to showcase that very often for various reasons. But he came alive for the silver in the last MTR games, no reason to think with his recent form that he will not be there once again. In a mile+ run he certainly could give the US a tiny lead going into Knibb if he is even started at T2.

But many will focus on his worst races from the past, and then extrapolate off of those. IT makes way more sense to me to use recent form when trying to handicap, but to each his own...

I thought Paris test event had the swim, don’t remember it being a duathlon.

Do keep up! Rack your memory bank for Paris last summer, and water issues, and the effect.

So now you are just moving the goalposts. You originally made the ridiculous proclamation that USA prospects for medals are "low" but now you are predicting 3 4th place finishes! If you think someone is going to come in 4th, then you by definition think that his/her prospects for medaling are "high."

You also are moving the goalposts on Pearson. You first said he won't be anywhere near the podium, which also is a ridiculous statement given that he just won Yokohama and was 6th at the Test Event. Rather than admitting that was a ridiculous statement, you followed it up with your observation that he only "sticks" when the lead group is 40. Setting aside that that is not correct (did you watch Lausanne?), with no AB, Gomez and Varga and a flat Paris bike course, how exactly do you think the men's race will play out leading into T2? If you think that there will be a small break of men, then you stand alone in your prediction because that's not how any recent WTCS race has unfolded on a flat course and a full field.

I actually raced Lausanne in 2019 :) watched the pros race next to Livvy Mathias that was cheering on Alex Yee when he was still a “baby”.
Anyway, I don’t think there’ll be a small break of men, but the group will be much smaller considering there are quotas per nation, so I do expect maximum 25-30 people in the front group, with the French, KB and maybe even Wilde hammering the bike.
Again, 4th = no medal, so I confirm my previous statement.

i gave you relay splits first the 2 most recent . and then his recent form results and the key qualification race yokohama. you are welcome to find us a race in 24 which would indicate he can lose less than 10 seconds after a hard bike.

what he loses on the relay is in line what he uses over 10 k its aobut 1,2 seconds per 100 meter the run in paris is 1.8 k
in fact in the last 2 realys it was more like 1.6 seconds per 100 meter.

you can believe ,but the probability based on actual results is a lot closer to 20 sec than 10 seconds let alone less than 10 seconds
we can use as well hong kong world cup this year he lost 90 second on the run in a sprint race

there was one outlier and that was a weak world cup race in chile end 23 where he only lost 32 seconds but this is actually the one outlier in the last 18 month had i used the worst result it would have been 4 minutes at a sprint world sereis race last year.
so the most likely conclusion is he will lose about 1.2 secods per 100 meter . and the likelihood is higher that it is more than less.

the good news is he did outrun sam dickison this year. which is of course not insignificant as this has spivey and gtb in close proximity for the 2nd leg and that is a strong team.

the relay was a duathlon.

Rider at Cagliari was flat slowest of all the front group. He'd sucked wheels all the way and ran 32:33 (losing 1.8s/100m): he had an incentive to run his best with McElroy chasing him down (30:09). Dickenson marked Wilde to distraction/resignation, pulled a fair bit and as planned, ran the first lap before DNF'ing. So 'outrunning Dickinson this year' is moot.
Notwithstanding that, Rider and Dickinson leading off will be very close by the handover, however many seconds down that is, and, as I've suggested (and @monty thinks likely) GTB and Spivey will catch any front markers with assurance: a committed two-up TT and they won't care who they bring with them: they have Pearson and Yee to handover to who will distance any company by the third handover. If Lombardi starts off the front (after FRA-man Leg 1 gives her a head start, which I think likely (?Le Corre)) she won't survive on her own, and even with Eim, that pair will be reeled in.
All the USA athletes know that if they can get Knibb starting Leg 4 with the rest (and that's an achievable goal) she will have a great opportunity to break away, establish a large enough gap, survive on the run having forced the rabbits (Potter/Tertsch/Beaugrand) to work on the bike, to earn them all at least a medal.
Extending that theme, Knibb needs to go on the first lap. That will then give time for Potter and Tertsch to flick off Beaugrand who will then have her nose on the wind and an assault on her fragile morale: even more chance for Knibb to get bronze.

IAM not sure what France will do are they trying again to expose the weak USA and UK male and bring beaugrand in 2 Nd place and have her to destroy the field in the run and and have bergere go solo again.
It would make the race bloody existing id they do.



Germany is pretty sure to go
Hellwig first and Lindeman last
They have a very clear structure play it save and be in the race after the first male. And Lindeman is the anchor in every relay.
If tertch is 2 she will do fuck all on the bike and save energy for the run so while UK TT up till T2 it's than lvery ikely they will get dropped again as they have to expose energy to get back on swim and bike.
GTB is likely to drop spivey on the run which then would leave Pearson and lee exposed

One of the key aspects in the relay will be kingma and dereon kingma will be the 2 for the Dutch and is likely the key athlete for swim and bike. If she was to drag Germany and France around. Good luck for UK and USA
Kolkman is fast and the Dutch are a great really nation and usually the most over performing nation. so it's entirely possibly that she might be in the lead pack and started the swim ahead of USA and UK which would hurt the UK and USA and also where will dereon be after the swim another top cyclist that is as least as strong as any cyclist of the top 4 nations apart from knibb.
It's not just the top 4 these two ladies are as important for the race as Vargas was in the brownlee area they can play a big role how the race will pan out

At the test event the USA was not in the race after half time. And there is certainly a possibility that will happen again. And of course this is not a given but a possibility .
But person in Cagliari did not exactly show he will close a gap on the bike.


France and germany are much more likely to be fresh for the run for there first female
And I guess while it's most likely it will come to a race of the big 4 for 2 Nd females on the run as the come all togheter .
It's also entirely possible one nation of the big 4 will not be in the race.at this stage
The cahnce for France to be the nation out of the race is closed to 0 for Germany maybe 20 percent and for USA and UK it can be as high as 30 percent
At the same time if UK sends offlee really in contention than suddenly they would be in the driving seat.
So many possibilities and I guess if anybody pretends they really know what will happen they are
delusional .
The only thing I would bet on is France and Germany will be in a good position when the 3rd atheltes start the race.
And one would not bet against Johnny in the relay but that would be rather bad for USA.

Don't think France will repeat the mistake they made at the test event. It didn't end well.
Tomorrow is the super sprint race, which British Triathlon will be looking at to decide the second man. Jonny, Sam and Hugo Milner all racing