Ironman isn’t owned by a private equity company. That was two owners ago.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

If we are not debating the running of event (your post, your rules) then I say they sound the perfect fit for a sponsor noting the issues you raise.....

I suppose a company that makes masks and hand wash too, but otherwise way more appropriate than most sponsors.

I don't see a problem at all. Like it or not, large portions have the world have decided to move on in a manner they feel safe. My brother (M.D.) was on the committee that recommended a local lockdown before the state ever stepped in. He and his colleagues have aged a decade in the last year as our town was hit worse than about anywhere (0.4% of our county population (not just cases) has died from it). He, and other on the medical staff will be at the start line of the first event they can do.

There are seven doctors in my immediate family who have dealt with COVID every day. At this point, every one of them would sign up for a race.

edit: One other thing. Obesity is one of the major risk factors for COVID mortality. Encouraging health and fitness was a good idea before COVID and still remains so.

https://www.sltrib.com/...re-utahns-got-covid/

You seem reasonable and eager for honest debate.</sarcasm>

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Intermountain should not be sponsoring races that might kill competitors. Let’s wait until everyone is vaccinated.

https://www.npr.org/...-mystery-of-covid-19

More people will die from heart-related events during triathlons this year than will die from Covid contracted at triathlons.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

The race is May first which is three weeks from now. It is not only the race you have likely hundreds of volunteers and influx of visitors and their spouses maybe kids etc. Seems a bit premature in an area that has lots of active cases still.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

In a few decades, your children or grandchildren will ask you what you did to help during the 2020/2021 pandemic. Did you home school me Dad? Were you an essential worker Mom? Did you ignore the pandemic and train for a triathlon Dad? If you are heading to St. George, then you need to adjust your moral compass. While 550,000 of your countrymen were dying, you focused on intervals. While millions of kids were distance learning, you went on 5 hour bike rides at 60% FTP. Ironman, Intermountain, and you have a moral decision to make. Is it more important to race or to protect our fellow countrymen? I encourage you to join those of us who are waiting to race until it is safe for us and our host communities.

Advance is a private, family-held business that owns and invests in companies across media, entertainment, technology, communications, education and other promising growth sectors. Our mission is to build the value of our companies over the long-term by fostering growth and innovation. Advance’s portfolio includes Condé Nast, Advance Local, Stage Entertainment, The IRONMAN Group, American City Business Journals, Leaders Group, Turnitin, 1010data and Pop. Together these operating companies employ more than 17,000 people in 29 countries. Advance is also among the largest shareholders in Charter Communications, Discovery and Reddit. For more information visit http://www.advance.com.

Let’s listen to Trent Nix from Dallas. He doesn’t race triathlons and he voted for Trump.

I am not sure that you read the article. It would appear nobody who died was a potential competitor.

If you are going to change your argument (suspect you would) then don't sensationalize.

There's zero correct answers here. I am racing. Fully vaccinated. Calculated risk. I understand there are lots of important things that are much more important than triathlon, but wait for it...there were more important things that were life and death for people before it. So you could argue that doing triathlon instead of addressing world hunger (for instance) requires a moral compass shift...

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DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

Ha Ha! You both are right. Hug it out!
Didn't see that one coming.

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----------------------------------------------------------
Someone once accused me of being swimfan. I miss that guy.

I'm aware this is going to be really cynical.

Now that all healthcare workers (at least willing ones) have been vaccinated, the hospital won't really risk losing staff. Can't see a downside businesswise.

While it is probably not the intention of the hospital to help get St. George residents sick, local covid infections are likely to bring in more revenue. Since the hospital is sponsoring something, I understand it's being run for-profit.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Just. No.

Bullshit. You were referring to Providence Equity as WTC’s owner and you know it. Googling who the current owner is and trying to spin Advance as a private equity firm to fit your incorrect post and narrative is just nonsense.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

You keep trying, but it just isn't working. You need to start with an intelligent argument that triathlon events produce material transmissions, hospitalizations, and deaths. So far, you haven't. Probably because you can't. The reality is the probabilities are much greater that the swim and bike of a triathlon will produce more hospitalizations and deaths than Covid.

The US has hosted several dozen triathlon and running events since fall of 2020. So far, I have not found anything that points to material transmission associated with a triathlon event. I am open to the possibility, so go searching. If you find something tangible, get back to us.

Here's a poor, but eye-opening proxy. Remember that massive motorcycle rally in 2020 that stayed on the headlines for about a week? The thing had almost 500K participants over 10 days. It was huge. CDC studied it. It only produced 51 primary cases, 26 secondary and tertiary cases, four hospitalizations, and 1 death. This was an outdoor event. I suspect that triathlon is less likely than this to contribute to transmission, largely because triathlon will largely be attended by well people. This is probably why you will have a very hard time finding any reports of material transmission associated with a triathlon. It probably is not there.

Those numbers related to Sturgis are what they could trace on neighboring Minnesota. Not for the entire rally. It was also early data points.

This is a more recent study: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...l/10.1002/soej.12475

It was far worse than most reporting and much less than some other misleading reports that it caused an apocalypse.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Looks like I was right. And you don't know who I voted for (or if I even voted!).

Back on topic, after a year here's all we truly know (after all this time) about Covid and associated risks:

• Covid is a serious disease that can leave heart and lung damage behind in those who recover
• your risk of death is extremely low across all categories.
• relatively speaking, mortality rates are highest among elderly, the obese, and diabetics.
• there is virtually zero risk of mortality in children.
• there is extremely low risk among generally healthy people

Here's what we can deduce from regional infection and mortality relates

• mask policies and mask use seems to generally have little effect on Covid but seem to destroy influenza
• lockdown policies seem to generally have little regional impact
• arid climates seem to be at a lower risk than humid climates
• the vaccine is working
• outdoor events seem safer than indoor events

The post-mortem, assuming we ever get one from an objective mindset that doesn't worry about who voted for whom, is going to be fascinating. But considering the number of politicians, media talkingheads, and armchair prognosticators who will have egg on their face, the chance of getting an objective post-mortem is pretty much zero. Because ineffective policies and dead grandparents is a small price for the narcissists among us to pay for not having to say "I was wrong".

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

This is incredibly well-written and should be sent to every news outlet with instructions to read and commit to their body of knowledge.

Should a drug company sponsor the Tour of California?
Should alcohol companies sponsor NASCAR teams?

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#swimmingmatters
Laugh hard. Run fast. Be kind.
The Doctor (#12)

There was a lot of pearl-clutching over Little Debbie sponsoring IM Chattanooga several years ago.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Sturgis and triathlons for that matter are indoor events. People gotta eat, drink alcohol and sleep, and talk to each other while they do. That’s the issue.

E

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Yes child, I home schooled you.
Yes child I am an essential worker.

You know what else I did child, I trained for a triathlon and did 5 hour bikes @ 60% FTP and focused on intervals..

But no son, I did not ignore the pandemic. I took every safety precaution suggested

A modern day Oskar Schindler, this guy.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Just wanted you to know I appreciate your thread and post. I hear you! Your post above has been part of the reason I have felt depressed this past year. I have found it difficult to full-on train for a big race after many years of training and racing. The pandemic really changed things for me. I am extremely disappointed in our society for the blatant apathy towards so much death as a result of virus. Over a half million deaths in the USA alone like you pointed out. I wish I could have done more to help. I have followed all guidelines (masking, social distancing, only necessary trips from home). I am fully vaccinated now. But could I have done more to help? I was selfish too, sitting on my bike trainer doing intervals all winter.

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Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.

I get it. This is the secondary argument that has been cropping up on this forum recently. Still, we need to look at triathlon & running events holistically. Are the events, in total, associated with material transmission. After dozens of events, we are not seeing reports that they are. So, it is merely hypothesis without evidence so far. (I have a theory of why we are not seeing many reports, that per Trent's post, if we really get some objective post-mortem, I bet my theory proves true.)

Covid cases in SD were nearly non existent before august. By fall they had the highest positivity rate in the country. The contract tracing sturgis may not have found anything but the overall numbers aren’t good either.

i have to imagine mine will be closer to the following. so dad let me get this straight, we shut down the half of the economy, destroyed countless business, help foster countless cases of depression that inevitably led to many suicides, threw gasoline on a fire of an already way too screen dependent generation of children, demanded that healthy non at risk people stay home, created some of the worst unemployment, and ultimately caused massive inflation, all because if you were obese, diabetic, or had trouble breathing you might die from this disease? dad, why didnt those people just stay home if they didnt feel safe.

oh man you dont even want to know what i imagine our conversation will be like when i tell him about the vaccine and how people still didnt want to open the economy back up!

oscar.....classic

everybody got a turn of “doing it wrong”, irrespective of their policies. It’s why an honest post-mortem will be exceedingly fascinating.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Death by suicide actually dropped by 6% in 2020 as compared to 2019. Lowest number in the last five years. Even more so percentage wise as we have a larger population than five years ago.

Tragic and horrible still but we need to stop the baseless argument that people were offing themselves in record numbers last year.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

And once you are done talking, he can head back to his job where he will pay a sky high tax rate because we have borrow an order of magnitude more money in 'stimulus' than COVID cost and left it for his generation to pay for.

Riverdaledad,
Believe it or not, some people can fit more than one thing into their day. They can actually manage to be an essential employee, homeschool their kids, and still head for a bike ride. I feel very confident that locking my kids in the house and not letting them socialize or be active was not the 'moral' thing to do.

Great point about Sturgis, and the big hoopla that was made about the mass gathering. Everyone focuses on the <100 cases that came out of the ~500k attendees from AUG 8-11. Rough estimate/back of napkin infection rate is 0.0002. Anyone know what the likelihood is to get Herpes, Aids, or other STDs.

Also, I don't think COVID is the worst thing that happened at Sturgis, or other large events where copious libations are consumed.

https://www.keloland.com/...m%20555%20in%202019.

I still find it a very hard stretch comparing at most 10,000 individuals (2000 attendees, 4 groupies with them) coming to an area for a race, as opposed to the much closer, prolonged contact at an event such as Sturgis.

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IG: NCGregory8778

I take the virus seriously here in Norcal but have been training (not racing) throughout.

I do think we're soon approaching the vaccination point where everyone (who wants to) is vaccinated and then we can reopen to full capacity soon afterwards. It's so close now that I'm 100% ok with just waiting the 1-2 more months it's anticipated to take, and do it right, rather than rush out prematurely.

I'm from CA so I obviously don't side with the red team on most issues, but I do think that there is real value in at least looking hard at results coming from states that have opened early and teasing out the real risks and spreading rates even if they populations and locales are different. I do suspect that CA and blue states, despite their best intentions, are likely going to lockdown outdoor racing longer than I think it should be, for example, well after the 'everyone who wants to is vaccinated' date. (I'm still ok with locking down close indoor activitiies for awhile until we're sure the superspreader events are no longer happening.)

Crossing my fingers that the big vaccine push will accelerate reopenings.

explain?

States with aggressive policing of mask policies don’t seem to fare any better (or worse) than those with a much more laissez faire attitude.

Even in Texas, there are areas of the state that are aggressively anti-mask and unlikely to social distance and others that are aggressively pro-mask and pro social distancing. Despite the differences in behavior, the infection rates don’t seem to show a significant difference.

I’m not anti mask. I’m not someone who believes they are a total waste. But there are ample anecdotes that suggest they aren’t as effective as we’ve been led to believe.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

This isn't true.

Jurisdictions that have 'elimination' strategies including closed borders, lockdowns, mandated quarantines, and robust contact tracing (i.e New Zealand, Australia. China, Atlantic Canada) have had a lot of success reducing outbreaks compared to jurisdictions using 'suppression' strategies ( most of the US and rest of Canada ). Where I live we have had 7 outbreaks which were beaten back down to 0 cases within a few weeks, using graded use of lockdown as well other elimination type srategies.

edited to fix typos

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______________________________________________________________

Exactly what Trent said. There appears to be a low correlation between states with aggressive restrictions and their Covid outcomes. Needs more study, but it is looking like states that enacted tougher mandates ended up the same as those who did not. (The restrictions did appear to have short-term impacts, but they did not sustain differences over the longer term.)

It is true. You really cannot compare between nations, for many reasons, to understand the relationships between restrictions and outcomes. The cohorts must be similar across so many other variables (culturally, economically, mobility, governmentally, etc.) before you can single out the one variable you want to analyze.

I'm specifically addressing regions of the US. And despite extremely aggressive policies, aggressive travel restrictions and logistical benefits (it's an island and isn't congested), even New Zealand wasn't spared from new outbreaks.

I trust absolutely zero regarding China's data.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Not ironic.

Authority: am British.

 
you are confounding variables. the mask question is about the extent to which it reduces transmission meaningfully in some class of setting.

so far as i am aware, the data says yes.

You're using 'irony' incorrectly. It shouldn't bother me, but it does. It would be ironic if Intermountain released a statement cutting ties with any companies that are opening before the end of the pandemic, and then the sponsored race wound up being a super-spreader event. The situation you're describing is more 'hypocritical' or 'selfish.'

OK, now that I've gotten that off my chest, I completely agree with your sentiment. The decision by Intermountain is disrespectful.

No it isn't true. No US state has implemented an elimination strategy. And trent is comparing between states of the US not nations anyway. I just gave examples of success in places that have elimination strategies.

Places with elimination strategies have had outbreaks related to travel, but have been able to contain each outbreak and reduce cases to 0.

Edited to add- if you want to compare regions within the same country- look at Canada. In the 4 provinces of Atlantic Canada which all have elimination strategies there have been outbreaks related to travel, but each so far been reduced to 0 cases. The rest of Canada which uses supression strategies has seen increasing cases and an inability to stay ahead of the pandemic, like the US.

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______________________________________________________________

How about having proof of vaccination to participate?

I don't think I am. There's no question wearing a mask reduces the projection caused by an exhale. Two masks reduces it further so. And pouring concrete around your head even more so than that.

The question is whether the policy and behavior actually results in benefits that justify the effort. Anecdotally, I can drive up 287 and in a few hundred miles arrive in counties here in Texas where nobody wears a mask. Not in a store. Not in a restaurant. And not at sporting events. In fact, they've been in school, playing sports, filling gymnasiums shoulder-to-shoulder, and living life in a fairly normal fashion for several months.

Meanwhile, here in the DFW area the culture of masks and social distancing is 180 degrees different. Even now that the mandate has been lifted, virtually every store and workplace and restaurant is behaving as if they are still on high alert. Everyone wears a mask. Everyone distances. I went to a local store yesterday to shop for an office chair and had to get my temperature taken, had to sanitize my hands (despite the CDC recently revealing surface-to-surface transmission doesn't happen), had to fill out a questionnaire regarding my current health, and had to sign a waiver. And I did all that even though I'm vaccinated and was wearing a mask.

And despite drastic behavioral differences between DFW and elsewhere, everyone seems to fare about the same. If there is a difference, it's extremely difficult to discern.

So that prompts the question - does wearing a mask and going to restaurants and living life normally really put one at an unmanageable risk level? I think there's enough evidence to justify my skepticism.

At every step, I've been assured certain mass death was right around the corner:

• When restaurants and stores were opened to limited capacity last Spring, I was told our politicians were stupid, selfish, evil, and sending people to their deaths. That was incorrect.
• When schools were opening here last fall, I was told we were "sentencing our teachers to death". That was incorrect. Some recommended teachers protest en masse because of the risk they face.
• When schools and colleges started playing sports and allowing fans, I was told it was incredibly dangerous and going to result in mass deaths. That was incorrect.
• When Texas eliminated the mask mandate and opened businesses, I was told it was like fumbling the ball at the 1-yard-line and it was stupid, irresponsible, and going to result in mass deaths. That was incorrect.

That is not to say there is no danger. That is not to say that some measure of caution isn't justified. But I'm done listening to the Chicken Littles and I don't believe there is much evidence to justify their level of panic. And that's why most of them don't cite any evidence anymore, they just emote and virtue signal (like the OP has done throughout this thread). The push for continued lockdown and restriction has become fetish.

I believe people can make their own choices and balance cost and benefit however suits them. And to hell with those who can't help themselves but try to bully and cancel and shame those who make different choices.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Trent said "lockdown policies seem to generally have little regional impact." He later clarified that he was speaking to differences between states in the US. This is looking like it is true within the US.

You are adding stuff to Trent's original statement in the term "elimination strategies" and by comparing other countries (that are generally not statistically valid comparisons). Your revision is different from his statement.

thats because there have been no lockdown policies in any US states.

No closed borders, no mandated quarantines, no other elimination strategies.

So the comparison is between states which are using different levels of attempted suppression which we know does not work. So a better statement would be little or no regional impact of differing levels of suppression.

In Canada- lockdown/elimination has absolutely been shown to have a profound impact on a regional level, and even within regions on a community by community level if you want to look at the province where I live.

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______________________________________________________________

Pretty sure that's precisely what I said:

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

This has always been something that has irked me, when people around me (in the USA) use the term "lockdown" as if they are in one, or have been in one. I agree with this comment one million percent.

no. you stated lockdown, which there has not been.

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______________________________________________________________

This in large part is why I don't have any problem with triathlons and other events happening. To do an elimination strategy that would get rid of community spread would require draconian measures that would not be accepted by too much of the population.

Last March, most places were locked down as much as the populace would tolerate. It wasn't enough to eliminate. So now, we are where we are. Continuing on as if there is a 'lockdown' going on while the majority behavior doesn't reflect it is calling for huge personal sacrifice that produces no societal benefit.

semantics - that’s the vernacular used in my social circles when describing the various policies that restricted businesses and events.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

trentnix.... this post of yours is one of the best i've read.
thank you....

with all due respect its not just semantics.

You are presenting an argument where you are trying to support your point using terminology that's made up, as if it is a fact.

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______________________________________________________________

You make good points and then shoot yourself in the foot with that nonsense.
You know very well that other factors than mask wearing contribute to disease epidemiology.
Easy and obvious one:
population density and distribution.

Also, it’s obvious to the biggest Luddite that no records (outdoor event transmissions) doesn’t mean that there are no connections. It’s just too difficult to study, unless you force registered people into quarantine after.
Of course you know all of that, and it’s sad that you feel the need you to use that to make your case.


So close, so far.

You’re being pedantic about the use of the works “lockdown”.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Look. you make a statement as if it is a fact when it actually seems to be your opinion based on the 'vernacular' in 'your social circle' . then you seem to take offense when called out on it.

there is so much misinformation and misunderstanding around the pandemic, we don't need any more of it. it doesn't solve any problems.

and by the way masks absolutely do work for covid, there is abundant data showing this. but maybe not in your opinion, based on the vernacular in your social circle?.

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on the contrary, I recognize all of that and it’s why I’ve been careful to relay my experiences as anecdotes.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Dude, take a breath. I didn’t take offense, I just didn’t realize there was an official, trademarked, internationally recognized definition for the word “lockdown” (or maybe you are just being pedantic after all). I used “lockdown” in the “the government won’t let me do some things” sense and every bit of context I’ve used since he been consistent with that.

I’ve already addressed the “masks work!” argument sufficiently.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Per Merriam Webster online:

b: a temporary condition imposed by governmental authorities (as during the outbreak of an epidemic disease) in which people are required to stay in their homes and refrain from or limit activities outside the home involving public contact (such as dining out or attending large gatherings)


it may be pedantic to point this out, but that doesn't make it wrong. Lockdown does not mean "the government won't let me do some things". it has connotations which are much different and specific (i.e., you cannot leave your house or go more than X distance from it). I just think that we should strive to be mindful with the words we use, because in this case, as I said previously, when people in the USA say anything to the effect that "we've been in lockdown", it just isn't true and is ignorant of how other areas of the world have handled it.

I applaud the OP for this thread.

1. Make a few quick posts to rile up some folks, 2. stop responding, 3. enjoy the crap that gets thrown back and forth.

Very well done.

On the contrary, that's exactly what it means, per the definition you provided:

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

We could debate the wording of the definition forever, but you didn't bold the "and". As I read it, it means 1) required to stay in their homes and 2) refrain from or limit activities...

Agree to disagree. I just think it's not the best word for us americans to describe what we've been subject to.

Under your reading, how would "limit activities outside the home..." have any meaning if you aren't allowed outside the house?

Here is a tragic story of an active, healthy Intermountain nurse who contracted COVID last year. Luckily, she is doing better after a double lung transplant. Pretty sure that Jill thinks it is reckless to have a large triathlon in Utah during a pandemic.

https://www.sltrib.com/...t-gehrke-utah-nurse/

my guess is it's an acknowledgement that some people have to leave their home in order to keep the world spinning. We'd have to ask MW what they meant, but the inclusion of the word "and" leads me to think you cant just ignore the first part of the definition. In any event, this digression, which I admit I started, is getting a little silly and off topic.

we in the US haven't been subject to restrictions to our physical movement in the way other countries like canada or the UK or others I'm not aware of, and that's all i wanted to try to acknowledge.

I live in California. We have no triathlons this spring or many other mass participation events. We have no spring COVID surge. We are completely reopening on June 15th if the numbers stay constant.

Florida ignored COVID. They have had many triathlons and other mass participation events. They are experiencing a spring surge.

https://www.google.com/...rticle250518344.html

If people continue to go to Texas Rangers games and Challenge Triathlons during a pandemic, then we won’t be able to get back to normal. If people get vaccinated, wear masks, and avoid mass gatherings, then we might have a normal race season this fall. Wouldn’t that be nice?

That is terrible. But you seem to struggle deeply with understanding the difference between possible and probable. These concepts seem to be synonymous for you. How do you manage to drive to work, fly a plane, ride a bike, or even get out of bed, when it will surely lead to certain death?????

You aren’t a medical doctor or a triathlete Trent. You should probably not be commenting on masks or triathlons. I will refrain from discussing bike fit and the Dallas Cowboys.

They probably are not. The article is jumping the gun with a complete lack of data.

Edit: I misspoke initially. The article was just stating data. You completely misunderstood and misused the data it provided. Is your definition of "surge" a mild increases in cases with no associated deaths? Or is it the massive jump like we saw in November & December? Florida is probably experiencing the former, but we do not have data to know that yet. To help you understand context, probably 30% to 50% of Floridians have had Covid. They have vaccinated about 33% of their population with at least one dose. It is statistically improbable that they will see a material surge, because there are so few people left to catch it relative to prior actual surges.

I find it's risky to hypothesize about this. Kind of a Lavender Room discussion, but we've had some very smart, data-minded people who made this same assumption about the rate of symptomless cases that are just never reported. These people used the assumption to poo-poo the idea of another significant surge. Last spring. Then last summer. Then winter. Etc. So far they're all about 0-fer.

Eventually the assumption will be right, though. Maybe it's this time, but it'll be like calling 8 out of the last 2 depressions.

Care to share your credential?

That ratio comes from CDC. They estimate 4.6 actual cases (IIRC) for every reported case. I used 3x to 5x to soften it. That range I quoted is probably trustworthy. Whether it leads to fewer infections is on the hypothesis end a d aligns with your comments. It the fact is, a huge percentage of the US population has either had Covid or had at least one vaccine shot (and some both).

“To help you understand context, probably 30% to 50% of Floridians have had Covid. They have vaccinated about 33% of their population with at least one dose. It is statistically improbable that they will see a material surge, “

Did you know that the J and J vaccine is only 20% effective against the SA strain of covid? Or that having had a native covid infection doesn’t confer any immunity at all against that strain? Or that monoclonal antibody therapy doesn’t work against it either?

I think there is a false sense of security out there.

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______________________________________________________________

Yes, I am familiar. Also, some of your statements may not be factual or low probability scenarios.

x2

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

Here are my credentials. Masters in Public Policy from Columbia University with a focus on emergency management. Senior bio-terrorism planner at New York City Department of Health working on New York’s small pox pandemic plan. 30+ Olympic and 70.3s completed. Looking forward to safely resuming my racing in the fall.

So a bureaucrat, then. Explains a lot. Smallpox? Really?

You are right that you shouldn’t listen to me for triathlon advice, which is why I don’t give any. But at least I have completed a long course race once upon a time and was a USAT certified coach for a minute.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

Well it’s what our Infectious diseases folks are telling us during the weekly covid meetings for our health authority. I’ll ask them to clarify.

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Dude chill, your self righteousness is a turn off. Go argue with another random stranger tonight.

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Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.

1) Thanks to “bureaucrats” at public health agencies across the country, US has one of the most robust vaccination programs in world.

2) My first triathlon was Savageman. Is that legit enough for you?

3) My wife is a high school principal. I left my job to take care of my young son after schools shut down. What did you do during COVID besides trolling people on Slowtwitch?

4) A terrorist attack using smallpox would require every American to be treated within 4 days. Smallpox is one of the most contagious, deadly viruses. By planning for this worst case scenario, public health departments are better prepared when less contagious pandemics occur (COVID). This week’s Economist has a great story on smallpox if you are interested in educating yourself rather than making inane comments on Slowtwitch.

1) Thank you to those bureaucrats involved. The check is in the mail. They did a much better job than those who planned for the pandemic and managed to forget to have enough PPE available for our healthcare workers (seriously, that was a massive, massive failure of planning and execution).
2) Don't care. Don't care about your times, either (just to get out in front of it). You are the one who seemed to be concerned about triathlon resumes.
3) Worked. Created wealth. Had more children. Saved kittens from trees. The usual flyover country stuff. Sorry hear the Smallpox planning got put on hold since you decided to stay home.
4) I'm familiar with Smallpox and the threat of a Smallpox attack. I consume useless information voraciously.

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Trent Nix
Owned and operated Tri Shop
F.I.S.T. Advanced Certified Fitter | Retul Master Certified Fitter (back when those were things)

It is 8:30 pm in Texas and Trent is home trolling me. Can someone in the Slowtwitch world suggest some hobbies or tv shows for Trent? I will start. Hemingway on PBS is very good. There is also a Tour of Watopia coming up on Zwift.

I think the OP might just have his mind blown, or committed suicide.
Chances of either are split down the middle...

Or maybe he ran out of his COVID tests?

Maybe every competitor should just have a surcharge added, for full vaccination of the local population?

As mentioned, this is only for Minnesota and surveillence systems only detect a small fraction of the true cases. While Minnesota generally does a better job of investigating outbreaks than many states, it wan't like they were sequencing all test-positive samples or that Sturgis had its own unique variant.

As to whether transmission during a Tri is common, who really knows. Cycling isn't a very good example, because all the testing keeps the underlying prevalence low. Michigan hasn't been doing well and they have tons of outbreaks in their sports teams, with close to 10% of basketball teams dropping out of the play-offs because of positive cases.

My guess is that one of the biggest risks is that someone brings a new variant to town. Soemthing like the Brazilian or South African variant could make matters a bunch work. Afterall, a rapidly growing fraction of case are the U.K. variant and it isn't like viruses get anywhere without a host.

If you drop a few contrary statements, it is helpful to back them by referencing some tier 1 sources, like CDC, NIH, WHO, the drug company, peer-reviewed studies. Something. Otherwise, there is a very real possibility you just misunderstood and are spreading misinformation.

Intermountain, Ironman, and state and local politicians are encouraging people from all over the works to come to Utah during a pandemic. Fact!!!

https://www.google.com/...aths-hospitalization

 

Not directed at you or anyone specifically but I am trying to understand why the outrage is directed at business and their respective customers, I guess if you are really pissed off why not lobby your local health authorities, politicians etc?

In a very specific legal sense every business that has been affected by this over the past year is going to jump at the first (legal/approved/insured) opportunity for revenue, and they might have customers on the other side equally willing to spend pent up cash in exchange for services or product.

Being mad at them seams a bit dante-esque..no? E-mails, phone calls to people in power might at the very least feel like you’ve done something productive.

Maurice

I am not sure I understand the point of that post and link. The world is moving forward? I agree; it is OK to move forward. We have seen dozens of races in the US demonstrate that we can conduct a race without material transmission.

I’m going to stand by my statements as I heard them directly from our lead infectious diseases people. The 501Y.V2 variant does have a spike protein mutation which has shown to have reduced reactivity to plasma antibodies from patients with previous covid infections

My point is/was new variants are emerging/can emerge at my time and I’m saying that it’s possible that these will make vulnerable people sick despite previous infections and vaccinations in themselves and the population around them . So social distancing/mask requirements and more drastic measures may be required for some time.

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Jerome Powell, Trump’s appointee to Federal Reserve, says that biggest threat to our economic recovery is jackasses who travel to Florida, Texas, Utah, etc. and race triathlons during a pandemic. Anybody check out Florida’s numbers this week?

https://www.cnn.com/...0-minutes/index.html

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