Where are things going with the population these days? I heard a passing comment, I think on podast a week or two ago, that there is predicted to be a 20% decline in the population by 2100? Is that true?
Last thing I recall hearing was we were suppose to top out around 10-12 billion at some point.
Google says we are just about at 8 billion at the moment.
It is probably true that someone predicted it, but we won’t know if it will become true for another 75 years. There are a lot of models and population forecasts out there. The better ones show potential distributions and error bars.
But there are a few things that are clear. The most east Asian countries (Japan, Korea and China) are on a path that will see them at about 50% of their current population by 2100. Western developed countries all have fertility rates below needed for replacement. Their population growth (or lack there off) is solely driven by net migration. The driver for world population growth for the next 100 years is going to be Africa and the Asian subcontinent.
China, being the long term planners they are, have been working to establish dominance over the areas of largest population growth through their Belt and Roads initiative. They expect to leverage Africa the same way that the US leveraged Asia.
Google fu seems to suggest a peak of over 10 billion in the 2080s and then a slight decline by 2100. Wish I could remember where and who I heard state that prediction of big decline.
Well it’s true as in someone made that prediction 
The UN prediction is that we’ll peak around 10.4B in 2086 and then decline at 0.1% total population per year until we hit some plateau at who knows what, who knows when.
There are projections that we’ll keep growing into the 22nd century.
There are projections that we’ll hit our peak around 2065.
Most the big countries are at replacement level (India, Indonesia, Bangladesh) or below (US, Brazil) or well below (China). Nigeria and Pakistan are the only big countries that are growing
In the Wiki page they mention a Lancet article that predicts a peak of 9.7B in 2064 and 8.8B in 2100, but that is only a 10% decline.
Also interesting in the Wiki page that 70 years ago Walter Greiling predicted a peak population of about 10B in the mid 21st century. He also predicted global oil shocks and international agreements to mitigate climate change around the turn of the century. Always good to see the predictions of mid-century Germans coming true.
The New York Times had an article on this in 2023, working the assumptions of falling birthrates. 10B people by 2085, then falling to 1B in the next 150 years. A pretty dramatic dropoff: Opinion | What Happens When Global Human Population Peaks? - The New York Times
If human beings are of any good to God, the universe, creation or even ourselves…
1 billion people, living harmoniously with the rest of creation,
IS ENOUGH.
Unfortunately…
I am pretty sure we are NO good for God, the universe, creation and even ourselves!!!
That we will not stop at 10 billion. We will not return to 1 billion.
Or
We will continue to consume more and more and more…
Or we will continue to hybridize, more and more thoroughly with our machines (especially the virtual and thinking ones).
In none of these scenarios, will human beings, as we know them still exist 300 years from now.
But…
Let’s hope we can return to one billion, stop the hybridization with machines and learn to live at peace with the rest of creation.
A good book that I would recommend is “empty planet”
The arguments are basically that population growth through life expectancy have mostly peaked, and that trends in urbanization lead to womens empowerment and less demand, (in a city children become a financial liability)
It was a good book, well researched and laid out.
Maurice
An alternative view is laid out in this paper
It basically says the UN has had to consistently revise its projections upward and we are seeing a trend toward less aggressive family planning than was expected.
Thanks, Interesting. I do enjoy reading the various research but I’m not about to hang my hat on any outcome….
Maurice
