Will We See a Sub-8 Win at IRONMAN Hamburg?

Triathlon Forum
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Solveig Lovseth on the bike at the 2025 race in Hamburg. Photo: Alexander Koerner/Getty Images for IRONMAN

Last year the battle between Laura Philipp, Kat Matthews and Solveig Løvseth almost resulted in the magical sub-8 hour finish we’ve been waiting for in women’s full distance triathlon racing. Sure, Kat Matthews (and, for that matter, Nicola Spirig) did it in the Sub-8 challenge in 2022, but in terms of a full-on race, the closest we’ve got is Anne Haug’s 8:02:38 at Challenge Roth in 2024.

The 2025 Hamburg event saw Philipp, Matthews and Løvseth at the front of the bike (even though Løvseth would have handlebar issues that slowed her down), with Matthews pushing the pace for much of the way and eventually opening up some space at the tail end of the ride to lead the way into T2. Once on the run Matthews continued to apply pressure at the front, but over the final eight km Philipp would make her charge, flying clear thanks to an impressive 2:38:27 marathon split to run to the win. In terms of time, though, Philipp would have to “settle” with an 8:03:13 finishing time, two minutes up on Matthews, while Løvseth would fly to the fastest women’s full-distance debut to round out the podium in 8:12:28.

Laura Phillip wins the 2025 IRONMAN Hamburg European Championship. Photo: Jurij/Getty Images for IRONMAN

This year’s race, which takes place on Sunday, June 7, won’t have Matthews to drive the pace, but the duel between Philipp and Løvseth still has the potential to lead to a fast time. Despite the extremely long transition areas, the Hamburg course has always been fast. Philipp’s first win in Hamburg, in 2022, saw her finish in 8:18:20, which, at the time, was just seven seconds off Chrissie Wellington’s world-best time set in Roth in 2011. In 2023, France’s Denis Chevrot won the race in a blazing 7:26:20. In 2024 Jackie Hering won the race in an impressive 8:19:14. Then came last year’s speedfest.

Whether or not Løvseth or Philipp is the more likely to win the race is a much more interesting question. Philipp is coming off a slow start to the season, having spent some time in hospital last month dealing with stomach and back issues. She did bounce back to take third at 70.3 Aix-en-Provence, but has she bounced back enough to compete with Løvesth?

The Norwegian hasn’t lost an IRONMAN race since that debut event in Hamburg a year ago. She won in Lake Placid and her 8:43:29 finish broke the course record by almost 17 minutes. She won in Kona to take the world championship with the day’s fastest bike and run splits. Then she took IRONMAN Texas in 8:11:09, just 35 seconds off Matthews course record there. In that race she ran down Taylor Knibb and once again had the day’s fastest bike and run splits.

So what does all that tell us about a potential sub-8? Who knows. If the conditions are good, Philipp is in decent form and Løvseth is game to take her on, we could see some fireworks. Philipp is set to take on Matthews at Challenge Roth, and based on her health issues, it’s not hard to imagine the race in Hamburg will be designed as a stepping stone towards that race. It’s hard to imagine Løvseth pushing at sub-8 pace on her own without some help from Philipp, but we also couldn’t imagine her winning Kona last year, or taking Texas with such apparent ease this year, either.

All of which is a long-winded way of saying it will be interesting to see how Sunday’s race plays out. Here’s a bit more info on the race:

IRONMAN Hamburg European Championship

As with last year’s race, the women are competing for the European Championship in Hamburg, while the men will race in Frankfurt on June 28.

  • The pro women will start at 6:15 am local time – CEST. That’s 12:15 am EST.
  • The race will be streamed live through IRONMAN’s Youtube channel and with other partners
  • The pros will be vying for a piece of the US$87,500 prize purse
  • There are six pro Kona qualifying slots up for grabs

Course

The Hamburg course features a one-loop swim in the Alster, a series of lakes in the heart of Hamburg. There’s a long, 200 m run to T1, followed by a two-loop bike course that is flat and fast. The day rounds up with a four-loop run course through downtown Hamburg that’s jam-packed with spectators to keep the energy going. As noted earlier, the course has a reputation for being very fast.

Other Contenders

We’ve been guilty of billing this as a two-woman show, but there are more than a few other women who are likely to keep things moving and will happily take the win should either of the world champs in the field falter.

  • Marjolaine Pierré (FRA) arrives fresh off an impressive win at 70.3 Aix-en-Provence and has proven her mettle on big stages before. Remember, she led a lot of the bike course at the world championship in Nice won by Philipp (2024). (She joked after the race that she wasn’t ready to die, so she didn’t try to keep up with Matthews on the long descent.) In addition to her bike abilities, Pierré is a fantastic runner when she’s in form – exactly what will be required to compete for the podium in Hamburg.
  • Lisa Perterer (AUT) had a great season in 2025 that included a fifth-place finish in Kona and the win in Cozumel. This year has been a bit of a slog, though – she dropped out of Texas on race morning due to illness and was 10th in Aix-en-Provence. She felt like she was ready for a big day in Texas, though, so if she’s been able to get back that fitness, she’ll be in the mix.
  • Holly Lawrence (GBR) was one spot behind Perterer in Kona and arrives in Hamburg after a nice fourth-place season opener at T100 Spain last month. She’s still relatively new to this full-distance thing, but seems to be learning fast – she was fifth on debut in Lake Placid last year and then took that impressive sixth in Kona.
  • Lotte Wilms (NED) won IRONMAN Western Australia last year and is a great swim/ biker who will help keep the pace moving along through the first two legs of the race. A sub-three hour marathon is a stretch, though, which will make it tough for her to contend for the win based on this field.
  • Katrine Græsbøll Christensen (DEN) took second at IRONMAN South Africa, but the field in Hamburg is likely to be moving at a completely different pace, so her typical deficit after the swim will be an issue.
  • Others to keep an eye on include India Lee (GBR) and fellow Brit Fenella Langridge.

Start List

Bib Athlete Nation
F1 Laura Philipp Germany
F2 Solveig Løvseth Norway
F4 Lisa Perterer Austria
F5 Holly Lawrence Great Britain
F6 Katrine Christensen Denmark
F7 India Lee Great Britain
F8 Lotte Wilms Netherlands
F9 Marjolaine Pierré France
F12 Kate Curran Great Britain
F14 Marta Lagownik Poland
F15 Jenny Jendryschik Germany
F16 Merle Brunnee Germany
F17 Charlotte McShane Australia
F18 Fenella Langridge Great Britain
F19 Lisa Gerß Germany
F20 Justine Guerard France
F21 Shiva Leisner Denmark
F22 Johanna Ahrens Germany
F23 Kaidi Kivioja Estonia
F24 Rachel Brown Great Britain
F25 Marie Ingerhed Sweden
F26 Antonia Milowsky Germany
F27 Stephanie Wunderle Germany
F28 Mareike Guhl Germany
F29 Maaike Vooren Netherlands
F30 Miranda Tomenson Canada
F31 Gabriela Kaczka-Sanak Poland
F32 Serena Carter Great Britain

Stay tuned for our race recap of Sunday’s race.

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It would be interesting to know if the race offers a bonus for sub 8? I think without that incentive, it will not happen unless needed to actually win the race(like 2nd going 8;02). Maybe a personal sponsor has put up a big payday for this, but you are the investigative journalist, go get us the info!!! (-;

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Excellent preview - I’ll riff on the sub-8 possibilities.
I think the dynamic last year of Matthews trying to drop Philipp and then committing to run 2:40 ahead of Philipp generated the fierce competitive edge which meant 8 hours was close.
For either Philipp or Løvseth to go under 8 hours I think the same rivalry would need to be present, however.
I assume they will swim together. Løvseth knows she will need a gap of at least 5 minutes come T2 and will drop Philipp on the bike. If she does not, Philipp will win. I expect there will be a drawn out catch on the run, which should be exciting.
The splits from last year (tabulated below) show how difficult it’ll be to break 8 hours.

Swim: I assume they will swim together. Philipp swam OK in Aix but difficult to benchmark. Similarly Løvseth swam fairly average in Oceanside, but better in Texas.
Reasonable to assume the swim is the same distance so not less than 54. Løvseth has averaged 55:48 in her four IMs so far. Philipp more.
Bike: The least time recorded for an IM bike is Knibb’s 4:19:46 in Texas and besides her, three athletes have been within a minute of that: Matthews and Loevseth in Texas and Bleymehl here in 2024. I can well see Løvseth riding a best ever bike time. This will be helped by this year’s bike course which is 177.2km Last two years it was 180.3km. Comment: This is disappointing from the course designer but within tolerance (?2%).
Might Løvseth ride 4:15? To Philipp’s 4:20?

Transitions: Allow me to observe that while the run up the steps and ‘to’ T1 might only be “a long 200m” the length of T1 is over 500m. You can see athletes typically take 3:39 (all fast runners and all no socks!).
And there’s another 500m for T2 - minimum time 2:50 (Philipp was super fast last year,
Total T1+T2 = >6 minutes (NB No man in 2023 took less than 6 minutes for the two transitions combined.)
Run: Philipp rode third wheel at 12m (NB) last year.
I suggest that helped her run her amazing 2:38. She will at best be >20m behind Løvseth this year, till she isn’t. I discount Pierre as a wheel for her: perhaps I shouldn’t. Løvseth shared the work on the bike last year and then ran 2:46 (NB on debut). Could she run faster off a record breaking lone bike? Not much. 2:49 in Texas.
Estimate:
Philipp: 54+3+4:20+3+2:40=8:00
Løvseth: 54+3+4:15+3+2:45=8:00

Pos’n Athlete Total Swim T1 Bike T2 Run
1 Laura Philipp​:germany: 8:03:13 54:40#3 3:39#4 4:23:38#2 2:51#2 2:38:26#1
2 Kat Matthews​:united_kingdom: 8:05:12 54:37#1 3:40#5 4:22:45#1 3:13#4 2:40:57#2
3 Solveig Løvseth​:norway: 8:12:28 54:38#2 3:38#3 4:24:10#3 3:22#6 2:46:40#3
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All I see the quality of fields is both down for Hamburg and San Fran . Would be good if they were on at the same time.

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So you think Phillipp is pulling a laidlow ?

Also did Lawrence stay in Europe after Spain or flew back ?

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The best predictor of medals are past medals - Pat Lemieux

Also, be more patriotic for fuxsakes Peter

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personally I dont really want any kona contender to go too deep and especially somebody that does roth as well. I do not think Hamburg 25 added too much for first and 2nd place for kona.third place yes . so I do not really want to see sub 8.15.

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btw I would think pat was like 15 years old when that phrase was coined ?

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“Down” - you’re probably right

  • Compared to Hamburg last year (2025)? #1 (Philipp), #2 (Matthews) and #4 (Pierre) in Nice IMWC 2024, some SC BPer, 2024 winner (Hering), Winner of IMSA two months earlier (Reischmann), to be #8 in Kona (Svensk)
  • Compared to IM Texas: Kona champ, #2 and #4 (and #5 till last minute DNS), Kona leader till 223km

As it is we’re left with a field which is ‘missing’ (top tier): Matthews (cos Roth), Knibb (cos KQ’d and racing SC), LCB (cos avoiding full distance competition too soon after surgery - see also 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022), Derron (no idea, too close to Pamplona?), Sodaro (AWOL/injured)
Racing: #1, #3, #5, #6 in Kona 2025, #4 in Nice 2024, several others who’ve won IMs in the last year (Lee, Wilms, Christensen)

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(And 14 others see start list above - of whom we might see decent swimmers Vooren and Guerard in the mix early on.)

I guess a broader ‘field strength’ perspective is that by Ironman designating/including events in the IM Pro Series it’s created a top tier set of 5 full distance races, encouraged the men and women to ‘come out to play’ and generated great competition for both athletes and spectators (compared to the previous).

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For internet meme purposes, we can always attribute it to Einstein or Nixon

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to add there was 100 k $ for sub 8 for the males back then, why should the females do it for nothing?
Ai tells me it should be 200 k $ in 2026 to be the same value.
funnily first sub 8 was July 1996 so pretty much 30 years ago.

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Rationally I reckon Philipp and Loevseth agree (with you) in principle.
Loevseth needs 5000ish points - actually 3000 would be fine.
Philipp will want to see whether she can keep with Loevseth (in a benign albeit damp environment) and see how much time she can run into her. This may frame her approach for Kona. Excluding ‘slow/hot’ Kona, Philipp has averaged sub-2:45 in her 7 competitive full distance races in the last 5 years.
However Philipp has Roth in a month and a better chance of sub-8. A full-on effort here is bound to detract from her Roth.
But they are competitors. And 8:15 is a low bar (see my arithmetic above - 55+4:25+2:45+6)

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sometimes if one is not a 3 times kona winner, one should ask themself , what would Patrick do ? lol

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Behind the scenes

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I hope they both go sub 8 while @Lucy_Charles keeps her powder dry gradually building up for Kona 2026. That’s going to be a lot of hard ironman distance racing for Loveseth from Kona last year to this year. but she’s younger and can absorb all that. Lucy is not old YET but still more lifetime miles on her body so great she got her KQ with a more relaxed 3 hrs run that is easier to recover from than the 2:3x the ladies will need to go sub 8

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Dampness forecast, all morning. Air temperature 14oC rising to a pleasant 18oC for the run (noon-15hrs).
Wind SW 12mph, gusting 24mph. This is perpendicular to the Hauptdeisch which is about 70km over the two laps (and will mean any draft at >20m is negligible). Loevseth will get away at will. And when she catches (players) Pierre, Lawrence, Wilms they will have to raise their HR to follow.
Having said that, Loevseth was downbeat suggesting the last ten days had not been smooth, healthwise.

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Well thought out. I do think (after doing some math in my head and having done work for the wind energy industry - true story) 5 meters per second is perfectly average in this part of Europe. And it’s not a windy part of Europe. Contrast 5 m/s (19 kph, 12 mph) with the speeds at which the women will bike today.

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Sure but any draft from a rider >20m ahead with a cross wind will be minimal.
Lawrence, Langridge and Wilms as expected FP. Lawrence has hopped it. Langridge will ride but her run is still well adrift.
Pierre gained a minute on leader in 11km. Recall she sent the first 90 minutes in Nice before getting caught by Philipp.
Perterer next fastest on the road, 20 secs down on Pierre.
Loevseth and Philipp riding same speed as leader: surprised that Loevseth has allowed a 6 seconds gap to Philipp.
ETA: I see Christensen, a slow swimmer, is third fastest on the bike, but 10 minutes down - she will be up in top 8 by T2 and is a decent runner.
Loevseth and Philipp swam slower than last year, btw.

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Looks like Laura and Solvi are racing sensible.