Tri247 published an article today on this.
(Close calls in brackets below).
Challenge Roth 2011 Chrissie Wellington 8:18:13 (50/4:41/2:44+3)
[IRONMAN Hamburg 2022 Laura Philipp 8:18:20]
Challenge Roth 2023 Daniela Ryf 8:08:21 (50/4:22/2:52+3) Challenge Roth 2023 Anne Haug 8:02:38 (52/4:28/2:39+3)
[IRONMAN Hamburg 2025 Laura Philipp 8:03:13] (55/4:24/2:38+6)
Either Hamburg or Roth then! Besides Philipp who is the obvious front runner, tri247 otherwise suggest (captain obvious) Kat Matthews, Lucy Charles-Barclay, Taylor Knibb and Solveig Løvseth. Although Ryf was ânot a runnerâ she recorded 2:52 in Roth (NB 5 mins faster than her next best marathon ever). Any athlete hoping to break 8 hours really âhasâ to run sub-2:50 which discounts LCB and Knibb, or does it?
Splits: 52, 4:19, 2:45 (plus 4 mins T1+T2) gets you there.
Sure hope that the distances of each discipline are within tolerance of 180km and 42.2km (which Hamburg 2025 was btw). Hamburg as a venue is made that bit more challenging by its 6+ mins transitions.
@Ironmandad wrote an article before Roth last year asking the same Q.
But this was only 5 weeks after Philippâs 8:03 (2:38) in Hamburg. I guess Philipp will do the same double this year. We donât know whether LCB will return to Roth - sheâs won it before. Neither Matthews nor Løvseth have raced Roth. Theyâll both be campaigning the IM Pro Series (assumed) so Roth would mean four full distances in one season.
What needs to happen is that more than one of the Top 5 (ish) women show up ready to rumble at the same place - they need to push each other, and in a way that is complementary.
Theyâre all pretty much going for Kona this year as a top goal, and I donât think any of them want to go so deep when they have a 10 min gap on the next person - they need someone running shoulder to shoulder. IMO, its probably less likely that the gap gets broken if the competitors arenât mutually complementary - harder for Matthews and LCB to compete directly than it is for Knibb and LCB to do so since âup the road 6 minutesâ isnât the same as 12m or shoulder to shoulder.
So youâd need either LCB + Knibb, a or Matthews + Phillip pairing for it to happen. Not sure where Lovseth fits.
Either that, or for Roth to put a big enough bounty on breaking 8hrs.
Logically, Hamburg or Roth particularly if you have Lucy off the front and Kat/Laura/Taylor/Solveig having to chase hard (vs the cat and mouse games at Hamburg this year). Hamburgâs conditions were exceptionally fast this year but thatâs probably the best chance to do so, fastest bike, usually cooler conditions, decently fast run (more turns but no gravel vs Roth). Roth would take a very very fast day just given the elevation of the bike course.
I will say that I think it would be possible if not almost easy if one of the top 5 turned up fit and motivated at a lower level non pro-series IM. Cozumel with the down current swim and flat bike, Victoria in Spain, Copenhagen if it has a pro field, Florida with a calm swim and wind day (if it has a pro feld next year). But it seems unlikely to get one of the faster racers at those races if theyâre chasing pro series or big races. The one exception could be someone like Julie Derron or Ash Gentle if theyâre doing a smaller, fast IM for a Kona slot and on a good day- though I donât either has the bike needed for a sub 8 even with potential 2:40 runs.
I agree, my fastest times are on rolling courses generally. But we havenât seen any women put down exceptionally fast times at Roth. Could be because women get mixed up in BOP MPros or M AGers, could also be because women donât have the same capacity surge power and keep momentum over rolling hills. But even for the men, itâs 5â+ off the fastest courses.