My opinion is the growth phase of most things is over. We just haven’t realized it. Obviously new products can grow from the ground up. But existing established products? Nope.
In a product life cycle, triathlon is definitely in the mature/ management stage. Try not to decline. Steal a little market share from other activities, but no major growth is ever coming.
The primary reason is not the product, the rules, the ceos, the coverage, the pros, the prizes. The primary reason is the demographics.
Triathlon is aging, everything is aging. And the next generations are getting fewer and fewer. Combine that with intense competition, and a growth strategy would be wasted investment. No, a maintenance strategy that uses the investment not towards rapid growth that will never come, but towards slow sustainable but inevitably declining replacement is the best way to use resources from a strategic perspective.
No one wants to hear retreat while they still have fight left in them on the battlefield. But if you just found out your munitions factory is putting out half a many bullets as it used to and reinforcements aren’t coming? Time to shore up and even scale back to maintenance positions rather than dream of conquering the world.
Demographics, in the long run, is destiny.
Incidentally, the one maintenance strategy that might work… that allows you to maintain numbers without managing a decline is to tap an underdeveloped segment. Women. We aren’t getting more babies and kids that will age into triathlon. But we do have women who not only look better in spandex than middle aged men, but they don’t feel an instinctual aversion to it.
This is nothing really new, but growth is kind of a misnomer is what I want to point out. Of course, I’m talking about real growth, not little variations based on circumstances of a race opening etc. In general, we should expect steady declines, so anything that pushes against that is really great.