On the bright side we are only 16 months away from this damn election crap to be over. On the not so bright side we are still 16 months away from this damn election crap to be over.
I usually learn more democratic (voted republican once in 2004) and though I do not want to see Trump in office again the Democratic Party is looking pretty weak right now and Trump is looking pretty damn strong.
For any democrat to have a fighting chance they would need to swing Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida into the blue. But who of the current candidates can make that happen?
What does the consensus on here say for a way too early call on the results of the electoral college be?
I think Wisconsin can swing back to be blue, but it will be very hard for Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
I predict Trump wins 297-237.
It will be less of a blow from 2016, but it will be an even more challenging 4 years to stomach.
EDIT: One way to look at this for democrats is to win the states below they need to look at how they can swing the votes they lost to lose each state below
Wisconsin: 22,748
Michigan: 10,704
Pennsylvania: 44,292
Florida: 112,911
To win these states back alone they only need to earn back 190,655 votes (technically). Simple right? Lol
Michigan may be more of a toss up. Trump carried Kent County by about 3 ppts, which represented most of the 10,700 votes he carried the state by. But in 2018, Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates won Kent County, so if that is part of a trend, it may be hard for Trump to win Michigan.
Arizona could also be more interesting this time, but likely will still go red. Florida looks like a slight Republican state again too, but not sure about PA. That could lean blue.
In the others the difference between Trump and Hillary was scant. Dems need a person or two per hundred who hated Hillary and stayed home to turn out. They need one or two people per hundred who voted for Trump to either switch or to just stay home, or even to vote for an independent.
Do you know anyone, personally, who says, “I won’t vote for Trump again,�
I know several.
Do you know anyone left-leaning who voted third-party, assuming Hillary would win, and won’t do that again?
I know several.
My biggest question is whether many conservative writers are correct that Trump won’t vacate the office and will have to be dragged out.
In the others the difference between Trump and Hillary was scant. Dems need a person or two per hundred who hated Hillary and stayed home to turn out. They need one or two people per hundred who voted for Trump to either switch or to just stay home, or even to vote for an independent.
Do you know anyone, personally, who says, “I won’t vote for Trump again,�
I know several.
Do you know anyone left-leaning who voted third-party, assuming Hillary would win, and won’t do that again?
I know several.
My biggest question is whether many conservative writers are correct that Trump won’t vacate the office and will have to be dragged out.
hahahaha! That would be awesome! I would love to see that! They should make it a pay per view event! Prob could pay off a good portion of the national debt with the proceeds!!!
On the bright side, only 16 months left.
On the other side, only 16 months left until 24 months of this crap to the midterms.
Right now, the generic D is polling 6% better than the generic R. At this point in 2017, the generic D was polling 8% better.
I hope Michigan will be back to D. Michigan was solid D from 89 to 15, and they just kicked out a R governor. Wisconsin was solid D from 85 to 15, and they just kicked out a R governor. Penn was solid D from 89 to 15.
Ohio sucks.
All poll worth a crap show every D candidate beating Trump, even the ones that don’t have a chance in the primaries.
To win these states back alone they only need to earn back 190,655 votes (technically). Simple right? Lol
In reality they don’t need to earn back any votes they just need to mobilize more of the D voters. Trump won largely on votes against Hillary. She just didn’t inspire the potential non-voters like Obama did. I think a Democrat will likely win on votes against Trump.
Adding into the equation four years worth of older Trump voters dying off and potentially large numbers of new voting age Democrats I think it will be a tough election for the GOP. Of course the economy over the next year is probably the biggest factor.
It’s really not that hard to switch that many votes for several reasons.
get more people to come out for your side
get more people from the other side to stay home
voter pools have changed due to moving, death, coming of age. Etc.
It’s not like you have to change anyone’s mind. I think I have seen polls where Romney received a far greater relative number of votes than trump, just relatively Hillary had fewer than Obama
You all are forgetting a variable from a small to large number of never Trump voters who stayed at home or voted third party sprinting to the polls to keep a hard left Progressive out of the WH.
hahahaha! That would be awesome! I would love to see that! They should make it a pay per view event! Prob could pay off a good portion of the national debt with the proceeds!!!
That group would of had to changed their vote (never trumper → voting for trump). Or if you are saying republican never trumpers → voting for trump (that would fall under category #1, getting more people on your side to come out).
That group would of had to changed their vote (never trumper → voting for trump). Or if you are saying republican never trumpers → voting for trump (that would fall under category #1, getting more people on your side to come out).
I wasn’t responding to you specifically just the general idea that the D candidate needs to only get a couple of votes here and there.
but thats kinda the thing. They really only need 1% of the vote changed in specific states, and this can be accomplished in a lot of different ways, all of which dont require anyone to change their vote.
Obviously, “a quarter inch the other way, and you would have missed the goal completely” - charlie conway (mighty ducks quote where estevez is saying he would have won the game if his shot was a quarter inch one way, but never realizing if it went the other way the shot would have missed the goal altogether)
Given what we have seen from the 2018 election and also the GOP base shrinking (statistically), the idea on the left is if you show up, you will win (without having to change any trump voters minds).
but thats kinda the thing. They really only need 1% of the vote changed in specific states, and this can be accomplished in a lot of different ways, all of which dont require anyone to change their vote.
Obviously, “a quarter inch the other way, and you would have missed the goal completely” - charlie conway (mighty ducks quote where estevez is saying he would have won the game if his shot was a quarter inch one way, but never realizing if it went the other way the shot would have missed the goal altogether)
Given what we have seen from the 2018 election and also the GOP base shrinking (statistically), the idea on the left is if you show up, you will win (without having to change any trump voters minds).
Right but depending on who the D candidate is it might be 3/8 or a half inch instead of a quarter.
Yes yes. Everyone on the opposite party would love the other side to vote for someone right down the middle. If only the left would run Kaishic and Nikki Haley out there they would win!
hahahaha! That would be awesome! I would love to see that! They should make it a pay per view event! Prob could pay off a good portion of the national debt with the proceeds!!!
You’re trying a little too hard with this shtick.
IDK, he’s right. It would be extremely entertaining to watch Trump fight to keep the White House. Even more entertaining to see him literally removed by force.
Of course, I am not American and it won’t affect me at all.
Yes yes. Everyone on the opposite party would love the other side to vote for someone right down the middle. If only the left would run Kaishic and Nikki Haley out there they would win!
I know. But it always goes that way. People from the other party would prefer centrists candidates for the other.
Are there any dem candidates you would vote for? SO many people here say they are voting for trump because they are not going to vote for a democrat. People who were previously never trumpers, are not going to change and now vote for trump. (My N=1 is that I have voted almost exclusively for GOP presidents over the years, and am a pretty strong never trumper. Every single dem candidate is more competent than trump).
This is why keeping your votes + voter suppression is the way most go about getting votes.