I watched some interesting comments on PBS’s the News Hour last night, where an observation was made that really made a lot of sense.
One of the big problems was that we as Americans (our government) placed too much importance on elections, thinking that if people go to the polls, they have freedom. We assume that just because they vote for a particular party, they automatically have a built in allegiance to that party. In both those countries, the allegiance of the people is to whoever improves their lives, not necessarily to the group that won the most votes.
In Afghanistan, we did not defeat the Taliban, we moved them out of Kabul and into the various regions of Afghanistan and particularly Pakistan. We essentially ignored all the outlining areas outside of the capital so once we moved our troops to Iraq, the Taliban were able to move back in and now have almost as much power as before, at least outside of Kabul.
In Iraq, we felt that once the Unity government was elected, people would automatically unite, which of course was very myopic and ill-informed. Centuries of inter-religion conflict is not going to be solved in one election.
The biggest issue in both countries, as the Iraq commission is reporting on also, is not one of military but one of governance. The people will put their faith in the group that can improve their lives, not destroy them.
In Afghanistan, there are now loud calls for the removal of both the Taliban and the U.S and NATO military forces because neither have the confidence of the people.
Our fundamental error in Afghanistan is that we did not involve the entire region (poor planning) and allowed the Taliban to escape to Pakistan (we also should have been far tougher on Pakistan).
In Iraq, we are also ignoring the regional powers. The Shiite’s may have a majority in Iraq, but Sunni countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia will not sit idly by if the Shiites start killing too many Sunnis, something also likely not thought about by this administration.
I think this new report out today which emphasizes a diplomatic approach will be the start of changes. Bush and Company made serious errors and have to held accountable for the mess they created because they refused to listen to voices of reason for the last 3.5 years. Hopefully now Bush will listen to his own advice and stop the politics and actually move in the right direction.