What odds do you give Harris to win the election?

Lavender Room
1

For all the hype about Biden stepping down, the sportsbooks still have Harris as a decent underdog against Trump. Currently Trump is at -225, and harris is at +200.

Essentially betting markets predict trump wins 2 out of 3. These are not exact odds because if nothing else - there is currently a decent amount of money on trump - and not too much on Harris. so the real odds are prob better. (the sportsbooks dont care who wins, they want even money on both sides, and they take the juice).

But with that said, I think its still going to be a close election but I would give odds of 51-49 for Harris. I think it will be close.

current state winners are also interesting:
Zona = - 285 for the GOP (bet 285 to win 100)
Georgia = -350 for GOP
Mich = even odds
Nevada = - 300 for GOP
penn = -130 for GOP
wisc = -130 for GOP.

To hit the parlay for the dems to win the election its essentially 1:5.5 (even less than the odds to win the election).

2

I think the difficulty with this bet is that it comes down to a few swing states. With plenty of time before the vote and the added uncertainty of having a few third party candidates, I would take those odds for Harris to win. Actually, I would sell the spread between her and Trump because I think it will narrow, looking to take profit before the election.

3

I think the difficulties here are twofold.

First betting odds simply reflect the weight of money placed by punters. And therefore reflect the views of punters who bet rather than an assessment of prospects.

Secondly, Kamala hasn’t yet started campaigning. So pretty dumb to be making assessments just yet.

4

I think the difficulties here are twofold.

First betting odds simply reflect the weight of money placed by punters. And therefore reflect the views of punters who bet rather than an assessment of prospects.

Secondly, Kamala hasn’t yet started campaigning. So pretty dumb to be making assessments just yet.

thats why I asked for YOUR odds. Not what the current odds at the books are :slight_smile: . If we cant make predictions on the internet, where can we?

5

For all the hype about Biden stepping down, the **sportsbooks **still have Harris as a decent underdog against Trump.

Sportsbook? Is there going to be a cage match? If so my money is on Kamala.

6

https://youtu.be/8Y1RsKKjDLU
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7

2020: Biden 306 Trump 232

2024: Trump 302 Other 236
.

8

I don’t know odds, I just know that it will come down to a few swing states.

Biden was just not going to win and get those votes, he was dead in the water IMO.

Kamala has a chance, but it’s a bigger task than what I think people believe.

Let’s look at the key swings states

2016/2020
Arizona Trump 91k/Biden 11k +102k Biden (11 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Georgia Trump 123k/Biden 12k +135k Biden (16 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Michigan Trump 11k/Biden 155k +166k Biden (15 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)

Nevada Trump 27k/Biden34k +61K Biden (6 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Pennsylvania Trump 44k/Biden + 125k Biden (19 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)
81k

Wisconsin Trump 23k/Biden 20k +43k Biden (10 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)

Some say North Carolina is in play, I am not including it in this.

Just by electoral votes changes through the census Biden (Dems) are losing 3 votes off those states, Trump has already gained 3 votes just through the census.

Dems need to maintain 35 electoral votes from 2020 through these 6 states. Biden flipped each one by various margins, he is out, Kamala is in. Biden didn’t have a presidential record 4 years ago, nor did Kamala. Kamala has inherited Biden’s to a degree and has a VP record and her results on the border and Trump has his previous.

Will Trump lose voters that liked Pence, will it matter, does JD earn him any of those potential lost voters, new voters?
Will Kamala lose Biden voters, will it matter, can she pick a VP (Mark Kelly) to earn a key swing state?

So can Kamala maintain 35 electoral votes and can she keep the margins of votes of the states above?

Some states had decent switches into big leads and others were won by slimmest of margins.

What is the path, what are the odds?
I think Trump takes
Georgia, Biden won by too small a margin
Arizona, see above
Nevada, see above

That gives Trump 33 votes, a virtual tie with states in play.

This is why I think getting Mark Kelly is the key to dems having a chance. That can help retain Arizona, a state barely won that I feel is more red now than 2020. The gap in Pennsylvania was strong, if dems lose that, they won’t win other key states.

All this to say I think Kamala has a better shot than Biden at demographics within those states, but it’s not good.

I think Trump wins by 1-2 states.

9

I don’t know odds, I just know that it will come down to a few swing states.

Biden was just not going to win and get those votes, he was dead in the water IMO.

Kamala has a chance, but it’s a bigger task than what I think people believe.

Let’s look at the key swings states

2016/2020
Arizona Trump 91k/Biden 11k +102k Biden (11 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Georgia Trump 123k/Biden 12k +135k Biden (16 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Michigan Trump 11k/Biden 155k +166k Biden (15 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)

Nevada Trump 27k/Biden34k +61K Biden (6 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Pennsylvania Trump 44k/Biden + 125k Biden (19 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)
81k

Wisconsin Trump 23k/Biden 20k +43k Biden (10 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)

Some say North Carolina is in play, I am not including it in this.

Just by electoral votes changes through the census Biden (Dems) are losing 3 votes off those states, Trump has already gained 3 votes just through the census.

Dems need to maintain 35 electoral votes from 2020 through these 6 states. Biden flipped each one by various margins, he is out, Kamala is in. Biden didn’t have a presidential record 4 years ago, nor did Kamala. Kamala has inherited Biden’s to a degree and has a VP record and her results on the border and Trump has his previous.

So can Kamala maintain 35 electoral votes and can she keep the margins of votes of the states above?

Some states had decent switches into big leads and others were won by slimmest of margins.

What is the path, what are the odds?
I think Trump takes
Georgia, Biden won by too small a margin
Arizona, see above
Nevada, see above

That gives Trump 33 votes, a virtual tie with states in play.

This is why I think getting Mark Kelly is the key to dems having a chance. That can help retain Arizona, a state barely won that I feel is more red now than 2020. The gap in Pennsylvania was strong, if dems lose that, they won’t win other key states.

All this to say I think Kamala has a better shot than Biden at demographics within those states, but it’s not good.

I think Trump wins by 1-2 states.

so if you had to give current odds, what would you give them 60% trump, 40% harris? (this would be a little lower on trump than current markets)

10

For all the hype about Biden stepping down, the **sportsbooks **still have Harris as a decent underdog against Trump.

Sportsbook? Is there going to be a cage match? If so my money is on Kamala.

Oddly, the line for R pres & R popular vote has the best odds on Bovada! +140. A R pres & D popular vote, which is the only way R wins, is +225! D Pres and pop is +165, D pres and R pop is +4000. +4000 is probably the only right line.

There is a -10,000 line for DJ to be sentenced to only a fine for the money coverup. +400 for jail time. +300 for ankle monitor, +300 community service, +225 for home confinement, -2500 for probation.

Or you can bet on when DJ and Melania will get divorced: +2500 for this year, +1200 for 2025, +1600 for 2026, -4000 for not before 2027.

11

My gut says 60/40 Harris/Dems.

My gut also says Trump wins EC but loses popular vote.

My other gut says Trump dies unexpectedly.

Suffice to say who the fuck knows. We are in uncharted territory. And there be monsters.

12

For all the hype about Biden stepping down, the **sportsbooks **still have Harris as a decent underdog against Trump.

Sportsbook? Is there going to be a cage match? If so my money is on Kamala.

Oddly, the line for R pres & R popular vote has the best odds on Bovada! +140. A R pres & D popular vote, which is the only way R wins, is +225! D Pres and pop is +165, D pres and R pop is +4000. +4000 is probably the only right line.

There is a -10,000 line for DJ to be sentenced to only a fine for the money coverup. +400 for jail time. +300 for ankle monitor, +300 community service, +225 for home confinement, -2500 for probation.

Or you can bet on when DJ and Melania will get divorced: +2500 for this year, +1200 for 2025, +1600 for 2026, -4000 for not before 2027.

Man bovada has some wild prop bets. Not just US politics but foreign. Putin exits before 2030 is -180, later is +140. Doesnt he have cancer!

LOL at the Biden specials (mistkinly calling Trump "putin’ + 300) and the Trump specials - the community service in sentencing is great.

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13

I don’t know odds, I just know that it will come down to a few swing states.

Biden was just not going to win and get those votes, he was dead in the water IMO.

Kamala has a chance, but it’s a bigger task than what I think people believe.

Let’s look at the key swings states

2016/2020
Arizona Trump 91k/Biden 11k +102k Biden (11 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Georgia Trump 123k/Biden 12k +135k Biden (16 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Michigan Trump 11k/Biden 155k +166k Biden (15 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)

Nevada Trump 27k/Biden34k +61K Biden (6 electoral votes, same as 2020)

Pennsylvania Trump 44k/Biden + 125k Biden (19 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)
81k

Wisconsin Trump 23k/Biden 20k +43k Biden (10 electoral votes, 1 less than 2020)

Some say North Carolina is in play, I am not including it in this.

Just by electoral votes changes through the census Biden (Dems) are losing 3 votes off those states, Trump has already gained 3 votes just through the census.

Dems need to maintain 35 electoral votes from 2020 through these 6 states. Biden flipped each one by various margins, he is out, Kamala is in. Biden didn’t have a presidential record 4 years ago, nor did Kamala. Kamala has inherited Biden’s to a degree and has a VP record and her results on the border and Trump has his previous.

So can Kamala maintain 35 electoral votes and can she keep the margins of votes of the states above?

Some states had decent switches into big leads and others were won by slimmest of margins.

What is the path, what are the odds?
I think Trump takes
Georgia, Biden won by too small a margin
Arizona, see above
Nevada, see above

That gives Trump 33 votes, a virtual tie with states in play.

This is why I think getting Mark Kelly is the key to dems having a chance. That can help retain Arizona, a state barely won that I feel is more red now than 2020. The gap in Pennsylvania was strong, if dems lose that, they won’t win other key states.

All this to say I think Kamala has a better shot than Biden at demographics within those states, but it’s not good.

I think Trump wins by 1-2 states.

so if you had to give current odds, what would you give them 60% trump, 40% harris? (this would be a little lower on trump than current markets)

I’d go
75/25 Trump
Harris wins popular vote
Trump outlives Biden

And I could be absolutely wrong on all of this. Purely opinion and through talking to people, it’s the general census I feel.

What I do know for a FACT
Trumps loses and it was not a fair election “So much corruption and cheating”

Trump wins and “This was the most secure and fair election we have ever seen”

14

2020: Biden 306 Trump 232

2024: Trump 302 Other 236

I am expecting Trump to get 295 electoral college votes.

15

My gut says 60/40 Harris/Dems.

My gut also says Trump wins EC but loses popular vote.

My other gut says Trump dies unexpectedly.

Suffice to say who the fuck knows. We are in uncharted territory. And there be monsters.

Are you part cow or something?

16

Been following fivethirtyeight for months. Trump has been the clear favorite vs Biden and vs Harris.

He’ll lose the popular vote but by a smaller margin than 2020, and win the EC.

17

2020: Biden 306 Trump 232

2024: Trump 302 Other 236

I am expecting Trump to get 295 electoral college votes.

as I said to you before I have a hard time getting off 268 right now. But IF Harris is the candidate I think the blue wall will be hard to keep fully intact. Especially with J.D. spending full time chipping away at it.

18

I think the difficulties here are twofold.

First betting odds simply reflect the weight of money placed by punters. And therefore reflect the views of punters who bet rather than an assessment of prospects.

Secondly, Kamala hasn’t yet started campaigning. So pretty dumb to be making assessments just yet.

That’s correct. Sportsbook odds are even less useful than polls because they are so heavily influenced by 1 side getting more action than the other side. In the NFL they have "the Cowboys factor " because of the Dallas homers.

19

Been following fivethirtyeight for months. Trump has been the clear favorite vs Biden and vs Harris.

He’ll lose the popular vote but by a smaller margin than 2020, and win the EC.

Just an FYI 538 had an electoral college vote tracker, and they never really swayed from a 50-50 matchup - even post debate. The even posted this article. https://abcnews.go.com/...e/story?id=111783096

So 538 never really had anything showing trump as a clear favorite to actually win the election.

That’s correct. Sportsbook odds are even less useful than polls because they are so heavily influenced by 1 side getting more action than the other side. In the NFL they have "the Cowboys factor " because of the Dallas homers.

Generally you are only getting maybe a point or two. If not, the sharps would just go and bet dogs all the time and be rich. While things are influenced by the sides, its not like teams are getting 2+ free points on the reg.

In this specific matchup, the book has likely already won. Any money on Biden is in their pockets - and it was prob a big chunk of change. So if anything right now, the books would want to undervalue Harris to get more money on her side.

20

My gut says 60/40 Harris/Dems.

My gut also says Trump wins EC but loses popular vote.

My other gut says Trump dies unexpectedly.

Suffice to say who the fuck knows. We are in uncharted territory. And there be monsters.

Are you part cow or something?

Ungulates gonna’ ungulate.