Going that well, solo effort, from the first swim stroke to well into the run, is a staggering achievement in my opinion.
However, it might be far too big an ask. The amount of effort saved by others in swim packs and bike packs is just too much. It appears. Anne Haug even said in an interview that she felt bad passing her because of the work she’d done on her own.
So what is she to do?
No help from Lauren Brandon in the swim, at all. None on the bike either. Is there no one in the women’s field who can swim with her?
Was the plan to wait for Ryf, latch on the back at the end of the bike, and use the improved run she has this year? But no Ryf to draw off.
ST strategists - what would your plan be if you were her?
I would use an early season race to try out the following: draft the swim no matter how slow it is, sit in the bike pack for 100 miles then hit T2 like her hair’s on fire and see how it goes.
It’s always surprises me how alone she is out there. The top women are finishing in the men’s pro field, isn’t there anyone she can latch onto? (god how I wish they could competently televise this race)
Who knows, if Lauren Brandon hadn’t had a mechanical early, maybe she has a different race. F
The answer, of course, though is that she gave up 15 minutes on the run. You can’t give up 15 minutes on the run and win.
I have this instinct to think of her failure to break through with three straight runner up finishes as some tragic tale. It’s not. She’s 26. Chrissie Wellington won her first at 30. Daniela at 28. She’s so far ahead of the game. It’s hard to win the way she’s racing, but she’s the only one in the world who can do it.
Yes she needs to team up with Lauren Brandon. It is in both the interest of Lauren and Lucy to share the load even if it means, Lucy has to dial it back a little bit. Going it alone is incredibly taxing mentally.
Most of Lucy’s wins have been wire to wire so unlikely she’ll see as a useful thing to do since she has done several times and won.
she’s always talling about how she likes being up front so unlikely she’ll do any type “team dynamics” specially with Lauren who isn’t at the same biking level just my .02
Improve her marathon time until then she needs to bury the field as much as possible. If Annie Haug had a bad day Lucy wins the thing. In a non drafting event what advantage is there to being in a pack.
tough one. I think she needs to do as frodo does and work with the top riders, and use that saved energy to blast the back end of the bike and run. The trick is the Haug who won it this year by crushing the run… you need to be confident in your run to keep her at bay.
It’s not that difficult to figure out. Lucy went too hard on the bike. She just needs to dial it back a bit and save some energy for the run.
If she went 4 minutes slower on the bike, that’s an entire bike ride of fueling and hydrating better for the run and also taking the edge off the bike damage to her running legs. Then she’d run about 8 minutes faster, putting her at the finish line about the same time as Haug.
A good rule of thumb is if you’re smashing people on the swim or bike at Kona, you’re going to get passed on the run. Sure, she can do it at some regular ironmans, but the competition is too good and there’s too many people showboating to risk that at Worlds.
It’s not that difficult to figure out. Lucy went too hard on the bike. She just needs to dial it back a bit and save some energy for the run.
If she went 4 minutes slower on the bike, that’s an entire bike ride of fueling and hydrating better for the run and also taking the edge off the bike damage to her running legs. Then she’d run about 8 minutes faster, putting her at the finish line about the same time as Haug.
A good rule of thumb is if you’re smashing people on the swim or bike at Kona, you’re going to get passed on the run. Sure, she can do it at some regular ironmans, but the competition is too good and there’s too many people showboating to risk that at Worlds.
yeah she said on IG she rolled the dice (rode hard) and lost. She didn’t really have much choice with some much stronger runners in the field. I think that plan can pay off, but she needs to find some slower male pros to ride with.
Maybe some of these front pack ITU swimmers will move up after Tokyo, Zafares, Coldwell, Duffy, Learmonth, if they can’t keep up with her in the swim they’ll catch her on the bike.
