I don’t understand the difference in power output on the hour record.
Wiggins is widely reported to have averaged an estimated 440 watts but Campenaerts beat him by 563 meters despite averaging only 330 watts (Campenaerts had a power meter). Some variability is expected but for Campenaerts to beat Wiggins despite putting out only three quarters the power is hard for me to wrap my brain around. What am I missing?
CDA & air resistance. Campenaerts did it at elevation.
In addition to the air density part of the equation already mentioned, it’s important to remember that output levels drop at altitude, too. Campenaerts would have produced higher numbers at sea level, and the disparity wouldn’t have been as great… but his lap times would have been slower, almost certainly slower than Wiggins’ were.
The conditions for the Wiggins record were really quite unfavorable. A couple of people I know that have some insight into the numbers of some of the current top of the heap TT riders don’t seem to think any of them could beat what he did at that venue on that day, or as one of them put it “we should all be glad he didn’t go to Aguascalientes, otherwise the record would have been out of touch for another generation”.
Here’s hoping Ganna has a go at it so we can at least do the math ourselves 
Well, nobody has mentioned the measuring stick yet. They were pros with sweet ass equipment and money tossed at the occasion but what are the chances the meters don’t agree.
Just asking.
BC’s stated power seems way low. 330W at 6100’ (Aguascalientes) is only equivalent to about 360W at sea level (for reference, Lionel did 401W for his hour). That kind of FTP is within range for a lot of pros, not even the top TTers. I know he had a PM, but 330W just doesn’t make sense for that type of effort. I think Dowsett was looking at 425W to match BC’s effort when he was doing the computations before Covid derailed is prep.
A couple of people I know that have some insight into the numbers of some of the current top of the heap TT riders don’t seem to think any of them could beat what he did at that venue on that day, or as one of them put it “we should all be glad he didn’t go to Aguascalientes, otherwise the record would have been out of touch for another generation”.
Here’s hoping Ganna has a go at it so we can at least do the math ourselves
When I was reading this part, Ganna immediately came to mind. People think Ganna cant do what Wiggins did? I remember Wiggins saying that once Ganna goes for it, we may not see it beat again in our lifetime. I didn’t follow cycling in the Wiggins days, but he must’ve been a monster.
Man, I wish Ineos pulled all the stops and invested in an Aquas run for Ganna. Leave no stone left unturned with marginal gains and see how far he can go.
Saying 440 watts sounds much more baller for sure…
He went faster really only because of the elevation
I honestly feel bad for Wiggins, thats not how it should work
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I didn’t follow cycling in the Wiggins days, but he must’ve been a monster.
I think the best way to frame it is that Wiggins kinda’ was Ganna… and then he won the TDF, too.
He went faster really only because of the elevation
I honestly feel bad for Wiggins, thats not how it should work
Wiggins knew what he was doing. He made a conscious decision to trade a “better” record for a huge crowd in his home velodrome, and the $ that came with that. The ability to make that calculation is pretty impressive in it’s own right.
But he was also quite unlucky as the air pressure on the day was very high
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Wiggins knew what he was doing. He made a conscious decision to trade a “better” record for a huge crowd in his home velodrome, and the $ that came with that. The ability to make that calculation is pretty impressive in it’s own right.
Wiggins absolutely knew what he was doing. Campenaerts? Hmmm. Not so sure.
He went faster really only because of the elevation
I honestly feel bad for Wiggins, thats not how it should work
Wiggins knew what he was doing. He made a conscious decision to trade a “better” record for a huge crowd in his home velodrome, and the $ that came with that. The ability to make that calculation is pretty impressive in it’s own right.
he optimized his “rho / $”
Well, nobody has mentioned the measuring stick yet. They were pros with sweet ass equipment and money tossed at the occasion but what are the chances the meters don’t agree.
Just asking.
Very well said. I love it we often have these conversations to the nearest watt using steady state models and we also almost always ignore the error of the input. I know of two powermeters I own that despite being calibrated are off by 15%.
My thoughts are:
-Victor C wattage looks a bit low, but then again in his channel he shows a power to speed graph (not at altitude) and the guys has a really efficient bike position. Don’t recall the numbers. He is also a smaller guy (5’7"?)
-The 440 W, was just an estimate if I recall correctly, he did not have a powermeter. It sounds badass, but it is just an estimate.
-Victor gets little respect for his record and is often disregarded as “altitude” which has some truth though. Let’s not forget that Alex Ds record kissed the 53 kph on 340 W (IIRC?) Victor C has a much more efficient bike position than Alex D ( I would argue that fully fit he is a better TTer and stats might match this argument, so in my view, he could have gone 53.5-54 kph at sea level.
-Wiggins said it himself. Once Ganna goes for the hour record, it will be game over for a long time. He had a number in mind, but did not disclose it. My guess is he will bring the record back to 56 kph and match Boardman on superman position.
I have mentioned this before - I only compare my power to me and my power meter. When I start comparing to friends it frequently doesn’t make sense. At IM races I am often significantly faster (or slower :-)) than friends with much higher average watts. My position isn’t OK but not all that special. I just think there is more variability than than our empirical minds who like to believe.
I’m looking forward to Ashton Lambie and the Huub boys taking a crack at these time based track records.
Edit: Looking at the American record, Zirbel did 408 watts for his hour in Aguas. Looking at his bike and a few stills, he left some potential gains on the table but I don’t know an American other than maybe McNulty or John Croom, that has a realistic chance to beat that at the moment.
https://rallycycling.com/news/tom-zirbel-breaks-american-hour-record/
Wiggins absolutely knew what he was doing. Campenaerts? Hmmm. Not so sure.
Yup, seems to be a fair bit of low hanging fruit left unplucked on that attempt. Honestly, knowing how many people think this is a relatively “soft” record, I’m surprised we haven’t seen more people have a go at it. Well, Covid (and the Olympic re-set) I guess…
Wiggins knew what he was doing. He made a conscious decision to trade a “better” record for a huge crowd in his home velodrome, and the $ that came with that.
This is a fact.
Wiggins absolutely knew what he was doing. Campenaerts? Hmmm. Not so sure.
Yup, seems to be a fair bit of low hanging fruit left unplucked on that attempt. Honestly, knowing how many people think this is a relatively “soft” record, I’m surprised we haven’t seen more people have a go at it. Well, Covid (and the Olympic re-set) I guess…
At the start of the pandemic, the UCI was expressly not sanctioning hour record attempts because it meant that one of their own had to travel to the physical location. At least one pro’s attempt (dowsett?) was scuttled for this reason. Then once they allowed it again races also resumed and TTers are sent back on team duty and it becomes harder to fit it back into your yearly goals.
Wiggins is widely reported to have averaged an estimated 440 watts but Campenaerts beat him by 563 meters despite averaging only 330 watts (Campenaerts had a power meter).
Campenaert’s data sounds about right. Would expect ~360W at sea level. He has the aero part sorted pretty well and that’s why he is a good TTer; he is not a powerhouse.
I suspect the CdA+Crr used in Wiggins power estimation was at least 10% too high. So maybe 400W… and probably less.
Based on what I’ve been told, you lose ~10% power in the velodrome vs road.