I raced 70.3 Warsaw again this year. Last year I came 2nd in my AG while convinced I was coming down with something all race week, so I wanted to come back and go for the W. Instead I had the opposite experience: felt great on race morning and completely fell apart. Still trying to make sense of it.
Last year I started getting sick during race week. Sore throat, run down, convinced I was coming down with something. I threw every vitamin and pill at it, and on race morning I genuinely thought why even start. I had a poor swim, but the second I got on the bike I felt strong. I cut through the field, worked my way to the front, and came off the bike in 2nd. My HR was higher than it should’ve been, probably the illness brewing, but for whatever reason I could fight through it. I finished 2nd and was totally surprised.
So I came back this year to try and win it. I also needed my Worlds slot here. Every other race I could’ve entered was sold out, so this was my one shot at qualifying this season. So there were real stakes.
This year during race week I was just exhausted. The whole week, and I couldn’t rest it out. Naps, sleep aids, nothing shifted it. I knew it wasn’t normal. I tried to blame nerves because I wanted the slot so badly, but deep down I knew something was off. The day before the race I got this weird tingling in my arms and legs. Then race morning I woke up fresh. Good sleep score, HRV normal, all lights green. I thought I’d turned a corner and was ready to go.
I had a front row start and stayed out of the washing machine I got caught in last year. Then 500m in I cramped in my foot. Never happened before. I swam through it. At 1700m my hamstring started cramping, and I barely kick, so this made no sense at all. It was bad enough that I could hardly run into T1. I’d had 1000mg sodium and 750ml before the start so this wasn’t a hydration thing.
I figured I’d ride it out. I got on the bike and there was just no power. Hamstrings and glutes weren’t firing, HR too high, watts low for me. I normally make up huge ground on the bike. This time I was hanging onto a group for dear life, legal distance, at a pace slower than last year in better conditions. By the end my quads were cramping too, and I’d put away two bottles and about 3 bags of Maurten 320, so nutrition was well covered. I got onto the run and knew inside the first km it was done. Not “I’m unfit, I don’t have the pace.” More like my body did not want to move.
For context, I’m a pretty data-driven athlete. I always go to the numbers first to work out what happened and what to learn from it. I even built myself a tool to generate these debriefs from my race files. But this one is the case that shows why the data on its own doesn’t tell the full story. I fed it this race and it told me I went out too hard and faded, which is the obvious read from the splits but completely wrong. It has no way of knowing about the race week, the tingling, or the cramping from 500m in. Put the two years side by side though and the difference is stark, and it’s clearly not fitness.
I knew it felt wrong before I looked at a single number. The data just told me what was wrong. A heart rate I couldn’t push past no matter what I did.
So, how much do you actually trust race-morning feel? Last year I felt like death and had one of my best races. This year I felt great and it fell apart. Mine has now lied to me in both directions. Curious if others have had the same.

